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Tu.114
2025-06-19T18:49:00 permalink Post: 11906264 |
There were simultaneous engine failures, but those were due to massive birdstrikes (
US1549
) or due to epidemic engine failures on Il-62s of various versions (like
LOT 007
or
LOT 5055
).
Fuel related total engine failures like Aeroflot 366 or Air Transat 236 at least had the decency to have the engines starve one after another as the fuel in the individual tanks depleted. But all those are probably highly irrelevant when considering the Air India accident. An engine disintegration or a heavy birdstrike would have been visible on the videos, a sizeable bird would have left some remains. And gradual fuel starvation would have shown some yaw. As much as I despise the thought, the issue that got AI171 must have come from within the aircraft, although this most decidedly does not infer any wrongdoing by any crewmember. 1 user liked this post. |
sSquares
2025-06-19T19:05:00 permalink Post: 11906278 |
There were simultaneous engine failures, but those were due to massive birdstrikes (
US1549
) or due to epidemic engine failures on Il-62s of various versions (like
LOT 007
or
LOT 5055
).
Fuel related total engine failures like Aeroflot 366 or Air Transat 236 at least had the decency to have the engines starve one after another as the fuel in the individual tanks depleted. But all those are probably highly irrelevant when considering the Air India accident. An engine disintegration or a heavy birdstrike would have been visible on the videos, a sizeable bird would have left some remains. And gradual fuel starvation would have shown some yaw. As much as I despise the thought, the issue that got AI171 must have come from within the aircraft, although this most decidedly does not infer any wrongdoing by any crewmember.
Not saying it happened here! |
wheelsright
2025-06-20T04:57:00 permalink Post: 11906594 |
The Indian Express is carrying a story (
https://indianexpress.com/article/ci...lues-10077117/
) that includes the following:"Investigators probing the June 12
crash of Air India flight AI-171 from Ahmedabad to London Gatwick
are taking a close look at a February 2020 incident in Gatwick, involving an Airbus A321, in which both engines malfunctioned immediately after takeoff. It led to a Mayday call before the aircraft returned to Gatwick 11 minutes later after a turnaround." ...
..."it was \x93clear from visual observation and wreckage\x94 that the flight suffered a power failure." ... ..."The black boxes and the DVR have been recovered but the officer said that the devices were damaged and file extraction would \x93be a complicated process\x94." ... ... "We will check the technical logs to see if any of the engineering teams or pilots of the previous flight left comments on the performance of both engines" Assuming there is some credence to the article, dual engine failure due to water contamination is the leading theory. It certainly fits much of the speculation in this thread. It may be that the flight data was not captured and much more reliance will be on forensic examination of the CCTV footage and the wreckage. Those waiting for the flight data to be published may be disappointed. If the original CCTV footage was made available, together with a detailed survey map of the airport, it will be possible to accurately estimate the takeoff speed and altitude during all the critical periods. My guess is thrust was reduced or lost very early and perhaps before the aircraft left the tarmac. Then shortly after becoming airborne, power was lost resulting in the deployment of the RAT. It is doubtful that the pilots shut down the engines or the wrong engine. Likewise flap/slat misconfiguration is unlikely. 1 user liked this post. |
sabenaboy
2025-06-20T07:45:00 permalink Post: 11906669 |
"Both engines failed or shut off close to rotation" explains all of the evidence : it explains an unremarkable take-off roll, loss of lift, absence of pronounced yaw, loss of electrical power, loss of the ADS-B transponder, RAT deployment, the noise of the RAT banging into place and revving up, emergency signs lighting up, a possible mayday call reporting loss of thrust/power/lift, and a physically plausible glide from a little over 200 ft AAL to a crash site 50 feet (?) below aerodrome elevation. It explains what we saw on the videos, what the witness reported, where the aircraft ended up, and the ensuing sudden catastrophe. I don't believe we have evidence for anything else right now—I'd be happily corrected on that. The EAFR will tell the story, but the reason for the crash will always remain a "mystery" because the B787 was not equipped with EPTPR's! ( E nhanced P ilot's T hought P rocess R ecorders) I think AI171 will go down in history with MSR990 an MH370. ![]() |
amsm01
2025-06-20T08:36:00 permalink Post: 11906715 |
The Indian Express is carrying a story (
https://indianexpress.com/article/ci...lues-10077117/
) that includes the following:"Investigators probing the June 12
crash of Air India flight AI-171 from Ahmedabad to London Gatwick
are taking a close look at a February 2020 incident in Gatwick, involving an Airbus A321, in which both engines malfunctioned immediately after takeoff. It led to a Mayday call before the aircraft returned to Gatwick 11 minutes later after a turnaround." ...
..."it was “clear from visual observation and wreckage” that the flight suffered a power failure." ... ..."The black boxes and the DVR have been recovered but the officer said that the devices were damaged and file extraction would “be a complicated process”." ... ... "We will check the technical logs to see if any of the engineering teams or pilots of the previous flight left comments on the performance of both engines" Assuming there is some credence to the article, dual engine failure due to water contamination is the leading theory. It certainly fits much of the speculation in this thread. It may be that the flight data was not captured and much more reliance will be on forensic examination of the CCTV footage and the wreckage. Those waiting for the flight data to be published may be disappointed. If the original CCTV footage was made available, together with a detailed survey map of the airport, it will be possible to accurately estimate the takeoff speed and altitude during all the critical periods. My guess is thrust was reduced or lost very early and perhaps before the aircraft left the tarmac. Then shortly after becoming airborne, power was lost resulting in the deployment of the RAT. It is doubtful that the pilots shut down the engines or the wrong engine. Likewise flap/slat misconfiguration is unlikely. https://www.gov.uk/aaib-reports/airc...-february-2020 Last edited by Senior Pilot; 20th Jun 2025 at 08:51 . Reason: Remove oversized image and sort out hyperlink 1 user liked this post. |
Musician
2025-06-20T09:25:00 permalink Post: 11906769 |
Here, at least one EAFR has its own power source, and we're likely to see a record of the engine failures if those caused the power loss on AI171, so that's going to be more helpful. 1 user liked this post. |
Musician
2025-06-20T12:13:00 permalink Post: 11906909 |
Flightradar24 and ADS-B
Thank you for your reply! There's a lot we agree on; unfortunately, I'll be cutting that from my response here.
![]()
Sure, actual data is usually more accurate than eyeballed stuff. But not always. In fact, it's often the eye that determines that something measured or calculated is "Off". How accurate is ADS-B data? I've seen FR24 tracks go way off course then suddenly get corrected / interpolated, frequently. The erroneous data seems to be "removed" by their algorithm, but where are the errors arising? Why this inaccuracy, and therefore, how accurate are the datagrams referred to? I know there were no datagrams received during the backtrack that I accept actually occurred, but that's completely different from receiving erroneous ADS-B data.
However, the datagrams that FR24 actually received were correct. They contain the GPS position of AI171 and its unadjusted barometric altitude, as determined by its onboard instruments. This data is as reliable as the instruments themselves are. (An example here is that the NTSB wasn't sure that the altimeter on the Blackhawk that crashed at Washington-Reagan was accurate; if that is the case, the ADS-B data would also be affected.) On their blog post at https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/f...rom-ahmedabad/ , FR24 have published the data that they actually received.
Sure, the CCTV footage I've seen is very poor, a video, moved about and zoomed, of the CCTV screen. Not easy to judge, but still useful and could be analysed frame-by-frame to compensate for all the extraneous input. Anyway, it's obvious to me that the rate of climb dropped abruptly just before the flight attained its apex, as if thrust was suddenly cut off.
Knowing the momentum to altitude conversion, it might be possible to estimate whether that's true or not. The evident RAT deployment supports engine shutdown, not just engines to Idle, doesn't it? In that case, it would be useful to know at what altitude the engine shutdown took place.
(The ADS-B data suggests the speed diminished 7% for ~50 ft of climb.)
And why all the wrong figures for the height attained, quoted in previous thread? Can't all be the atmospheric conditions.
2) people adjusting for airport elevation (189 ft), but not for pressure: 437 ft 3) people adjusting for pressure, some adjusting for temperature, get 71 to ~100 feet for the last recorded altitude. But while ADS-B reception was lost then (or the transmitter lost power), the aircraft continued climbing; examine the cctv video, knowing the wingspan is ~200 feet, we see that the aircraft reached 200 feet but not much more.
One fact that alters things substantially is whether the survivor's impression is correct that possibly the engines started to spool up again just before impact.
If that's the case then what does that do to the possibility or otherwise that the TMCA system caused a dual engine shutdown?
[Now I just hope your post is still there as I post this. ![]() Last edited by Musician; 20th Jun 2025 at 12:26 . 3 users liked this post. |
MaybeItIs
2025-06-20T13:47:00 permalink Post: 11906986 |
Indeed, thanks to you for your most informative reply! Great to know we're much on the same page.
I'll strive for brevity here. [Fail, sorry!]
However, the datagrams that FR24 actually received were correct. They contain the GPS position of AI171 and its unadjusted barometric altitude, as determined by its onboard instruments. This data is as reliable as the instruments themselves are.
It's uncertain because the 787 rounds all altitudes it sends to the nearest multiple of 25. The altitudes sent were from 575 ft to 625 ft.,
The RAT deploying is a consequence of a dual engine shutdown. It says nothing about whether the TMCA was involved.
If the TMCA did activate and shut off the fuel for whatever reason, what causes the TMCA/FADEC Hardware (and Software) to Reset, since it's independently powered off the engine-driven PMG after engine start? There is so much here that is just so unclear. I haven't seen anything about a Reset input anywhere, and since it's supposed to work only when on the ground, that's not really necessary, as the engine will eventually spool down. At some point before that, the PMG output voltage will go to low enough that the FADEC/TMCA should be forced into a Hardware Reset. That's all fine on the ground, but in the air, the engine will windmill, potentially until.... Is the PMG output fed through a switch/relay that cuts the FADEC/TMCA supply at low (i.e. windmill) RPM, so that a Pilot-activated Engine Off/On cycle can reconnect the Aircraft FADEC Supply link, thus Rebooting the FADEC so that it reopens the Fuel Shutoff valve(s)? It all seems so "awkward". And potentially fatal. Is this a scenario that the designers considered? (Who can answer that one? ![]() Just now, I realise that if this is roughly what happens, then maybe the engines did commence a restart just before impact, due to the plane being deliberately mushed/stalled to the ground as softly as possible, thereby reducing the windmill RPM. And maybe the engines restarting interfered with that planned landing. Or maybe I've got this all wrong. I'm hoping someone will tell us all.
[Now I just hope your post is still there as I post this.
![]() ![]() 1 user liked this post. |
Capn Bloggs
2025-06-20T15:49:00 permalink Post: 11907075 |
Disclaimer: the numbers I mention are from publicly available sources, namely Wiki (for the ZFW weight calculation) and a Boeing FCOM dated 2010, and my own estimations.
Strange, as I would have estimated this quite differently based on layman's intuition. If one assumes average values, then the approximate flight profile of AI171 according to layman's guidance certainly fits a situation in which the engines failed at or even very shortly before rotation.
​​​​​​​
Is VR about 20 to 30 knots above the landing speed?
​​​​​​​
Would these 20 to 30 knots of additional energy be sufficient to lift the aircraft to a good 200 ft during and after rotation?
​​​​​​​
If the angle of attack is then successively reduced, wouldn't the airplane still have enough lift to glide for a few seconds before losing all or nearly all lift?
​​​​​​​
Wouldn't it be the case that if the thrust had only ceased five seconds after rotation, the aircraft would then have reached a good 250 ft with the engines still running and then another good 200 ft in normal conditions before the speed was used up to about 150 kn?
​​​​​​​
AI171 probably didn't reach an altitude of 400 to 500 ft above ground (in relation to the airport), did it?
@Brace , I think you're exaggerating the residual thrust effect at lower RPMs. Of course 70% would get you round the pattern but you're at a much lower drag config and you're going much faster, again less drag. And are improved-climb takeoffs in the 787-8 even a thing? I can't see a two-stage rotation. I've made up a YT combo video: 10 users liked this post. |
Kentut
2025-06-20T17:32:00 permalink Post: 11907152 |
Source: business today June 19th |
Musician
2025-06-20T19:32:00 permalink Post: 11907237 |
\x95 The crew pushed TOGA, but it didn't take, because the aircraft had technically landed already. This delayed pushing the throttle forward. \x95 AI171, starting from 184 knots or more, had substantially more energy to work with. |
lighttwin2
2025-06-21T15:46:00 permalink Post: 11907858 |
TCMA continues to be one of the few (very unlikely) causes of/contributors to simultaneous shutdown of both engines. So far, though, I don't think we've seen a credible scenario explaining the possibility that TCMA was triggered in this accident. I'm not sure I understand your speculation.
In the scenario you are considering, it's clear that the air/ground state would be wrongly "understood" by the TCMA function. But we don't have, AFAIK , a credible theory for how that might happen. Surely it would have to result from either incorrect signals from the relevant sensors or a failure of the related logic in the FADEC TCMA function, or a combination of those. Indeed, I don't think we yet know exactly which sensor readings that logic depends on or how those readings are fed to the FADEC. Does your speculation include any thoughts about this? Also, the FADEC TCMA function has to "believe" that the engine is operating at high power and not responding to thrust lever operation. In your proposed scenario, is this also a logic failure — in both FADECs? Or false inputs from both TLs? Or are both engines actually operating at higher than commanded power levels? Or do I misunderstand your post?
Q: Would the a/c have enough kinetic energy a 184kts to climb to 100-150ft agl and then reach its final position if the engines had failed at, or just, before rotation? A: Theoretically possible - see calculation here . NB, the a/c actually flew 1.5km from the end of the runway and 2.3km from the likely point of rotation. Q: Doesn't the forward position of the gear mean that power failed after the pilots had selected gear up? A: Inconclusive - had hydraulic power had been lost prior to rotation, the gear could also be in this position - explanation here Q: If the throttle levers were brought to idle during take-off, would the A/C have applied autobrake, reversers and speedbrake? A: Yes, although there is a built in delay before reverser and speedbrake actually deploy - see here . Q: Is the ADS-B data consistent with this scenario? A: Yes, e.g. the Flightradar data shows the aircraft decelerating rapidly (12 knots in 4.2 seconds) from close to rotation. However, it's not clear how accurate this data is. For one, the altitude data is +/- 25 feet, second, while I was under the impression FR would have received airspeed data from the a/c sensors, this post suggests maybe not. Q: Does TCMA activation require the thrust levers to be at idle or does it function when the thrust levels are above idle, but where the actual thrust is above that commanded? A: No, the latter is true (i.e. idle is not required) - confirmed here - there are of course many protections against false activation Q. Did AI171 have the same software version / logic paths as NH-985 A. Unknown. That a/c had Trent 1000s so to some extent the software is different, but we understand the TCMA logic is broadly the same regardless of engine. I have not seen a post clarifying whether the TCMA software has been updated /changed via SB since 2019 to account for this incident. Be grateful if posters could refrain from speculative responses "e.g. I think this is unlikely because I feel x". I am not opining on how likely this sequence of events is, simply trying to summarise whether or not this theory has been ruled in or out. I also recommend this post for a summary to read before posting. . Last edited by lighttwin2; 21st Jun 2025 at 16:13 . |
Senior Pilot
2025-06-26T16:01:00 permalink Post: 11911339 |
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDe...x?PRID=2139785
Status Report on recovery and examination of data from Black Boxes – Air India Flight AI-171
On the evening of 24 June 2025, the team led by DG AAIB with technical members from AAIB and NTSB began the data extraction process. The Crash Protection Module (CPM) from the front black box was safely retrieved, and on 25 June, 2025, the memory module was successfully accessed and its data downloaded at the AAIB Lab.The analysis of CVR and FDR data is underway. These efforts aim to reconstruct the sequence of events leading to the accident and identify contributing factors to enhance aviation safety and prevent future occurrences.
26 users liked this post. |
D Bru
2025-06-26T21:39:00 permalink Post: 11911519 |
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDe...x?PRID=2139785
Status Report on recovery and examination of data from Black Boxes \x96 Air India Flight AI-171 Note the front EAFR is the one with RIPS battery backup. 1. The investigation's reliance on the front RIPS battery backuped EAFR indicates a confirmation of a total electrical power loss; 2. Earlier reports (i.e. AVH, now removed) of successful readout of and observations from CVR have proven outright fake. Regards, D Bru 4 users liked this post. |
EDLB
2025-06-29T17:02:00 permalink Post: 11913128 |
From the link above:
The minister called the crash a "rare case". "It has never happened that both engines have shut down together," he said So they have no clue even with both recorders read out, why both engines shut down at the same time. Sabotage on the electrical fuels shut down: Would require detailed knowledge about the wire routing, which is independent for both engine sides, so any "device" would be difficult to get into the electric harness. I would rule that out, unless they find foreign devices wired in on the wreck, because there are way simpler methods to get an airliner down. Fuel contamination: There is no smoke, no puff, nothing visible on the exhaust. Both engines went from clean burning to immediate shut down at the same time within less than a second. I think that is close to impossible with any method of fuel contamination you can come up with. There ist always some mixture you would burn and the less perfect burn rate would show as smoke. At take off you have something around 5kg per second fuel burn rate per engine, so you have to come up with non combustible "fuel" in this rate on the exact time on both engines. Highly improbable. I find it very disconcerting that with downloaded recorders the investigators seem to have no clue how and why the dual engine shut down happened. How can they be sure that this unrecoverable problem was/is limited to the AI171 flight. |
KSINGH
2025-06-29T18:17:00 permalink Post: 11913162 |
his comments come from this interview but I don\x92t speak Hindi: https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/sabo...-mohol-8788920 1 user liked this post. |
Musician
2025-07-01T05:56:00 permalink Post: 11914025 |
This is my latest attempt to square the circle using all the data points and minimal assumptions. The main shortcoming of the analysis is not knowing the maximum L/D and the speed for maximum LD with the gear down, flaps 5, and the RAT extended. However, if I use a reasonable number in my opinion for the L/D in that configuration and assume that the airplane is being flown at the speed for it, it will not get to the crash site. The distance from the runway of the crash site is from a previous graphic (1.55 km); the rotation point from fdr, permalink 314; 200 feet max height above the runway being generally accepted; crash site 50 feet below the runway elevation cited previously. An average speed of 180 knots is consistent with the dimensions given and 30 seconds flight time. A flare at 50 feet will briefly increase the L/D to 20, maybe even 30 (500 feet more than shown) but still not enough to make up the shortfall, In fact, with a head wind the L/D will be lower than assumed as well as if the speed being flown is higher or lower than required for maximum L/D in that configuration. In other words, there must have been some thrust available.
![]() 1) I had seen the "50 feet below runway" referenced as well, and double-checked on Google Earth, and could not confirm this. The terrain looks reasonably level. I'd be happy to see evidence for this claim, but until I do, I'll think it's false. 2) The maximum L/D is given for optimal speed, which remains constant throughout the glide. In the AI171 case, drag is balanced not just by loss of altitude (as it is in the optimal glide), but also by loss of speed. The speed decline provides energy, and I suspect that makes up the shortfall you assign to thrust. Note that kinetic energy is proportional to v\xb2, i.e. a speed loss of 50 knots from 180 to 130 vs 50 to 0 provides 15500 vs 2500 units of energy, i.e. 6 times as much. If you hypothetically hurl a unpowered aircraft into the sky with a catapult (and if there was no drag), hurling it at 180 knots makes it go 6 times as high by the time its speed decays to 130 knots than it could ever go if you hurled it at 50 knots. Of course there's drag in reality, and that also varies with v\xb2, so this is a very theoretical consideration intended to calibrate your expectations. I remember that someone used some kind of tool to confirm that the aircraft could've gone unpowered for as long as we assume it did, but of course I can't find it again now. :-( 1 user liked this post. |