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Gary Brown
2025-06-17T09:35:00 permalink Post: 11904142 |
"On Jun 17th 2025 an official, a former Air India Captain trained by the Captain of the accident flight, stated, that the CVR has been successfully read out, the voices on the CVR are very clear. It is becoming gradually clear from the newly emerging evidence that there was probably zero negligence in the cockpit, the crew did not give up until the very last moment. The probability of a technical cause is high. A preliminary report by India's AAIB can be expected in a few days."
AvH If this report is accurate, I'd hazard that a specific maintenance issue has been identified. If the "technical cause" was a system or parts failure or fault, then I'd expect a lot of similar 787s to have been grounded by now. Last edited by Gary Brown; 17th Jun 2025 at 10:04 . Reason: Clarity 3 users liked this post. |
Squawk7700
2025-06-17T10:32:00 permalink Post: 11904185 |
"On Jun 17th 2025 an official, a former Air India Captain trained by the Captain of the accident flight, stated, that the CVR has been successfully read out, the voices on the CVR are very clear. It is becoming gradually clear from the newly emerging evidence that there was probably zero negligence in the cockpit, the crew did not give up until the very last moment. The probability of a technical cause is high. A preliminary report by India's AAIB can be expected in a few days."
AvH This comment is from a low-budget news source. 1 user liked this post. |
sorvad
2025-06-17T10:43:00 permalink Post: 11904189 |
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Musician
2025-06-17T10:51:00 permalink Post: 11904195 |
Enhanced Airborne Flight Recorder (EAFR)
Since it has been reported that the "FDR" was found, they also have the "CVR". 6 users liked this post. |
eekeek
2025-06-17T10:53:00 permalink Post: 11904196 |
3 users liked this post. |
Lord Farringdon
2025-06-17T12:21:00 permalink Post: 11904253 |
It seems pretty unlikely that a bird strike that took out both of those
very big
engines simultaneously would not have been fairly obvious in ways that nearby observers (e.g., the crew, ATC, airport personnel?) would have noticed. Possible, of course, but I don't think we've seen any evidence that points in that direction. Also, for what it's worth, the
Times of London
June 15 story "
New clues point to engine failure for cause of Air India plane crash
" cited here in the closed thread includes this:
A poster in the closed thread pointed out, properly I think, that the Times shouldn't be relied upon for presentation or interpretation of technical information. Like most general news organizations, their reporters and editors (mostly) just don't have the background to assess, filter and explain complex processes and technology. Unlike many, though, the Times can generally be relied upon to seek appropriate sources and report accurately what those sources say. I think it's very likely that Indian authorities have ruled out a bird strike, and I also think those authorities are competent to make that decision. The second box has been recovered and the CVR is being analyzed so hopefully they will give an interim update shortly. |
za9ra22
2025-06-17T12:34:00 permalink Post: 11904265 |
Thanks for straightening me out on that one. Strange though that bird strike theory was ruled out so quickly without examining the wreckage or hearing the CVR? And still, the video potentially shows an right engine surge on the runway. If not a bird strike, then for what reason? Maybe I'm just seeing things since no one else seems to see this so I'll leave it there.
The second box has been recovered and the CVR is being analyzed so hopefully they will give an interim update shortly. To me, the video shows that whatever happened to the aircraft was symmetrical in as far as it continued in an (almost) straight line. That said, it is entirely possible that however grainy the video evidence is, somewhere within it there may well be a significant - even if momentary - clue, so this was a good catch, even if not the smoking gun. |
galaxy flyer
2025-06-17T13:14:00 permalink Post: 11904294 |
"On Jun 17th 2025 an official, a former Air India Captain trained by the Captain of the accident flight, stated, that the CVR has been successfully read out, the voices on the CVR are very clear. It is becoming gradually clear from the newly emerging evidence that there was probably zero negligence in the cockpit, the crew did not give up until the very last moment. The probability of a technical cause is high. A preliminary report by India's AAIB can be expected in a few days."
AvH |
Magplug
2025-06-17T17:01:00 permalink Post: 11904468 |
B787 Skipper.... No longer able to sit on my hands!
The joker that published one or other of the fictional accident reports before the dead are even identified needs stringing up by the thumbs.... Well done mods. OK, some of these theories, just bearing in mind the the flight recorder (there is only one FDR + CVR combined) was in the intact section of the undamaged tail and has been with the authorities for almost five days...... - All you guys who are rushing down the TCMA rabbit hole: If it was established that a software error drove both engines to idle without warning, after rotate.... Don't you think the worldwide fleet of B787s would have been grounded by now? Such a glaring failure would be absolutely inescapable on the FDR. Whatever was wrong with this aircraft was present at rotate, unbeknown to the crew. The fact that no ADs or notices to operators have been issued usually means that the cause is known and the aircraft was serviceable. The statement from a prominent Indian Captain about the skill and tenacity of the crew, right up to the last minute is absolutely laudable. However, the cynic in me says that the way is being paved for some bad news and by that I mean news that will do Air India reputational damage. Expect more management of expectation in the coming days. I'm still going with a) Incorrect derate + low Vspeeds or b) Low altitude capture 11 users liked this post. |
rkenyon
2025-06-17T17:19:00 permalink Post: 11904487 |
B787 Skipper.... No longer able to sit on my hands!
The joker that published one or other of the fictional accident reports before the dead are even identified needs stringing up by the thumbs.... Well done mods. OK, some of these theories, just bearing in mind the the flight recorder (there is only one FDR + CVR combined) was in the intact section of the undamaged tail and has been with the authorities for almost five days...... - All you guys who are rushing down the TCMA rabbit hole: If it was established that a software error drove both engines to idle without warning, after rotate.... Don't you think the worldwide fleet of B787s would have been grounded by now? Such a glaring failure would be absolutely inescapable on the FDR. Whatever was wrong with this aircraft was present at rotate, unbeknown to the crew. The fact that no ADs or notices to operators have been issued usually means that the cause is known and the aircraft was serviceable. The statement from a prominent Indian Captain about the skill and tenacity of the crew, right up to the last minute is absolutely laudable. However, the cynic in me says that the way is being paved for some bad news and by that I mean news that will do Air India reputational damage. Expect more management of expectation in the coming days. I'm still going with a) Incorrect derate + low Vspeeds or b) Low altitude capture
Speaking as a B787 Captain..... There is so much rubbish and stupid suggestion being written here.
- RAT out? Almost impossible, I have seen no quality footage that definitively witnesses the RAT being out. Those who think they car hear a RAT type noise might be listening to a motorcycle passing or similar. It takes a triple hydraulic failure or a double engine failure to trigger RAT deploment. They happily went through V1 without a hint of rejected take off so as they rotated the aircraft was serviceable. These are big engines, they take a long time to wind down when you shut them down. I have never tried it however engine failure detection takes 30s or for the aircraft to react and they were not even airborne that long. 7 users liked this post. |
604driver
2025-06-17T17:25:00 permalink Post: 11904491 |
Low Alt Capture
B787 Skipper.... No longer able to sit on my hands!
The joker that published one or other of the fictional accident reports before the dead are even identified needs stringing up by the thumbs.... Well done mods. OK, some of these theories, just bearing in mind the the flight recorder (there is only one FDR + CVR combined) was in the intact section of the undamaged tail and has been with the authorities for almost five days...... - All you guys who are rushing down the TCMA rabbit hole: If it was established that a software error drove both engines to idle without warning, after rotate.... Don't you think the worldwide fleet of B787s would have been grounded by now? Such a glaring failure would be absolutely inescapable on the FDR. Whatever was wrong with this aircraft was present at rotate, unbeknown to the crew. The fact that no ADs or notices to operators have been issued usually means that the cause is known and the aircraft was serviceable. The statement from a prominent Indian Captain about the skill and tenacity of the crew, right up to the last minute is absolutely laudable. However, the cynic in me says that the way is being paved for some bad news and by that I mean news that will do Air India reputational damage. Expect more management of expectation in the coming days. I'm still going with a) Incorrect derate + low Vspeeds or b) Low altitude capture b) Wouldn\x92t it capture the Alt rather than descending thru it? 3 users liked this post. |
neila83
2025-06-17T17:38:00 permalink Post: 11904506 |
B787 Skipper.... No longer able to sit on my hands!
The joker that published one or other of the fictional accident reports before the dead are even identified needs stringing up by the thumbs.... Well done mods. OK, some of these theories, just bearing in mind the the flight recorder (there is only one FDR + CVR combined) was in the intact section of the undamaged tail and has been with the authorities for almost five days...... - All you guys who are rushing down the TCMA rabbit hole: If it was established that a software error drove both engines to idle without warning, after rotate.... Don't you think the worldwide fleet of B787s would have been grounded by now? Such a glaring failure would be absolutely inescapable on the FDR. Whatever was wrong with this aircraft was present at rotate, unbeknown to the crew. The fact that no ADs or notices to operators have been issued usually means that the cause is known and the aircraft was serviceable. The statement from a prominent Indian Captain about the skill and tenacity of the crew, right up to the last minute is absolutely laudable. However, the cynic in me says that the way is being paved for some bad news and by that I mean news that will do Air India reputational damage. Expect more management of expectation in the coming days. I'm still going with a) Incorrect derate + low Vspeeds or b) Low altitude capture Given they took off at a perfectly normal point, at a perfectly normal speed, I don't see how you come to incorrect derate and low v speeds, or how on earth that would lead to a normal takeoff followed by sinking? 8 users liked this post. |
DaveReidUK
2025-06-17T19:03:00 permalink Post: 11904575 |
Absolutely. This confidence that the EAFR has already been read is misplaced. It’s a specialist piece of equipment and probably can’t even be downloaded in India. It’s most likely on its way to the NTSB, the BEA or the AAIB (UK) for analysis which will be done under strict conditions (for obvious reasons).
Each is downloaded separately in pretty much the same way as always. 5 users liked this post. |
Lord Bracken
2025-06-17T19:24:00 permalink Post: 11904584 |
I was referring to CVR/FDRs in general being specialist equipment requiring specialist facilities to process. In any case, I would be very interested to find out where those from this accident are read. It appears from a post upthread there are new facilities in New Dehli that could be used. Having said that, for the EK 521 accident in Dubai the recorders were sent to the UK for analysis, despite a "flight data recorder centre" in Abu Dhabi being opened (again with much fanfare) by the UAE GCAA five years before the occurrence.
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DaveReidUK
2025-06-17T20:00:00 permalink Post: 11904606 |
I was referring to CVR/FDRs in general being specialist equipment requiring specialist facilities to process. In any case, I would be very interested to find out where those from this accident are read. It appears from a post upthread there are new facilities in New Dehli that could be used. Having said that, for the EK 521 accident in Dubai the recorders were sent to the UK for analysis, despite a "flight data recorder centre" in Abu Dhabi being opened (again with much fanfare) by the UAE GCAA five years before the occurrence.
3 users liked this post. |
OldnGrounded
2025-06-17T20:23:00 permalink Post: 11904625 |
AAIB sets up flight recorders laboratory
New Delhi, Apr 9 (PTI) Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) has set up a flight recorders laboratory that will help it in carrying out more effective probes into accidents.
Civil Aviation Minister K Rammohan Naidu inaugurated the laboratory in the AAIB premises in the national capital on Wednesday. 2 users liked this post. |
Lord Bracken
2025-06-17T20:24:00 permalink Post: 11904626 |
I have no misgivings, I\x92m just challenging the assertion that because the recorders have been found, they have already been read. There\x92s any number of reasons why they may not have been read yet, in India or anywhere else.
1 user liked this post. |
C2H5OH
2025-06-17T20:33:00 permalink Post: 11904632 |
And again (I made a post somewhere months ago), why on earth doesn't any airport that is say classed as international, have 4k cameras installed.
Look at how many pages have been "were the flaps out on takeoff", and such like, "Ran out of runway" - even (maybe), Engine thrust could be seen, bogey conditions, tire conditions, Could answer a lot of information as to "Was the aircraft in good configuration on Takeoff/Landing', The world has watched hours upon hours of potato cam footage of AI-171 taking off - plus a handheld phone footage taken by a kid, and that's the best a trillion $$ airline industry can do..? 1 user liked this post. |
DaveReidUK
2025-06-17T21:29:00 permalink Post: 11904679 |
the difference may lay in the content that was recorded and not so much the 2 identical EAFR's. Only the forward EAFR is connected to a dedicated backup battery (RIPS) which also provides backup power to the Cockpit Area Microphone. So in case of a major electrical power mishap, the forward - and likely (externally?) damaged - EAFR might be crucial for recovering all available CVRecordings. Hence the somewhat understandable split-up in news-reports, between FDR data (from the rear EAFR) and complete CVR recordings (from the forward).
If the aft EAFR ceased recording at the point (just short of the runway end) where the ADS-B and likely everything else went dark, then the extra 30 seconds of CVR recording from the forward recorder could well be crucial to the investigation. |
unworry
2025-06-17T21:35:00 permalink Post: 11904689 |
2 users liked this post. |