Posts about: "Dual Engine Failure" [Posts: 231 Pages: 12]

Magplug
2025-06-13T22:13:00
permalink
Post: 11903713
Speaking as a B787 Captain..... There is so much rubbish and stupid suggestion being written here.

This aircraft was airborne for a grand total of 22 seconds, half of which was climbing to no more than 150' aal.

- No Flaps? Due to the setup of the ECL it is physically impossible to go down the runway without some sort of take-off flap set. The T/o config warning would have been singing it's head off. Despite assertions to the contrary I have seen no video clear enough to detect a lack of flaps.

- RAT out? Almost impossible, I have seen no quality footage that definitively witnesses the RAT being out. Those who think they car hear a RAT type noise might be listening to a motorcycle passing or similar. It takes a triple hydraulic failure or a double engine failure to trigger RAT deploment. They happily went through V1 without a hint of rejected take off so as they rotated the aircraft was serviceable. These are big engines, they take a long time to wind down when you shut them down. I have never tried it however engine failure detection takes 30s or for the aircraft to react and they were not even airborne that long.
- Flaps up instead of gear? The B787 flaps are slow both in and out. Given that the 'Positive rate' call is not made the second the wheels leave the ground, a mis-selection of flaps up would not cause any loss of lift for at least 20 seconds, by which time they had already crashed. I believe the gear remained down not because of mis-selection but because of a major distraction on rotate.

Discounting the impossible, two hypotheses remain:

1. Invalid derate set through incorrect cross-checking. Trundling down the runway takes very little power to reach Vr. It is only when you rotate that you create more drag and discover that you do not have sufficient thrust vs. drag to sustain a climb. Or....
2. Put 200' as the altitude target in the FCU. Immediate ALT capture and all the power comes off. PF is still hand flying trying to increase pitch but is already way behind the aircraft.

It could be after this that Boeing are forced to review the B787 practice of exploring the very edges of the performance envelope.

9 users liked this post.

TURIN
2025-06-13T23:49:00
permalink
Post: 11903714
Originally Posted by Magplug
Speaking as a B787 Captain..... There is so much rubbish and stupid suggestion being written here.

This aircraft was airborne for a grand total of 22 seconds, half of which was climbing to no more than 150' aal.

- No Flaps? Due to the setup of the ECL it is physically impossible to go down the runway without some sort of take-off flap set. The T/o config warning would have been singing it's head off. Despite assertions to the contrary I have seen no video clear enough to detect a lack of flaps.

- RAT out? Almost impossible, I have seen no quality footage that definitively witnesses the RAT being out. Those who think they car hear a RAT type noise might be listening to a motorcycle passing or similar. It takes a triple hydraulic failure or a double engine failure to trigger RAT deploment. They happily went through V1 without a hint of rejected take off so as they rotated the aircraft was serviceable. These are big engines, they take a long time to wind down when you shut them down. I have never tried it however engine failure detection takes 30s or for the aircraft to react and they were not even airborne that long.
- Flaps up instead of gear? The B787 flaps are slow both in and out. Given that the 'Positive rate' call is not made the second the wheels leave the ground, a mis-selection of flaps up would not cause any loss of lift for at least 20 seconds, by which time they had already crashed. I believe the gear remained down not because of mis-selection but because of a major distraction on rotate.

Discounting the impossible, two hypotheses remain:

1. Invalid derate set through incorrect cross-checking. Trundling down the runway takes very little power to reach Vr. It is only when you rotate that you create more drag and discover that you do not have sufficient thrust vs. drag to sustain a climb. Or....
2. Put 200' as the altitude target in the FCU. Immediate ALT capture and all the power comes off. PF is still hand flying trying to increase pitch but is already way behind the aircraft.

It could be after this that Boeing are forced to review the B787 practice of exploring the very edges of the performance envelope.
I have to agree with everything here except your assertion about engine shutdown.
Even though these are big engines with plenty of inertia, when you select engine shut off they spool down very quickly if on load. IE, The generators, two per engine and hydraulic pumps, etc, being driven by the (relatively) small mass of the N2 rotor will drag the speed down very quickly, the gennies will trip offine in seconds, the pumps will quickly reduce flow and pressure.
As for what went wrong.
If the engines have stopped working there has to be a common failure mode, fuel is one but as has been said, no other aircraft has had a problem, as far as we know. FOD? It would have to be something major to shut down two GeNX engines and there would be debris all over the runway, we would know by now.
I have no idea if the RAT has deployed, I can't see it in the video and the noise could be something else.
We shall see.
There is compelling evidence that flaps are set correctly and not retracted inadvertently.
I await further evidence.
Edit to add. LAE 40 years, type rated on 737 to 787 with lots of others in between.

2 users liked this post.

Europa01
2025-06-16T08:03:00
permalink
Post: 11903748
TCMA / FADEC

Originally Posted by tdracer
Repeating myself (again), but ALL the TCMA logic is resident in the FADEC. It takes aircraft inputs of air/ground (again, not familiar with the specifics of the air/ground logic used on the 787/GEnx-1B, so don't ask), thrust lever position, and what the engine is actually doing (mainly N1) to determine if the engine is 'out of control'.
The thrust lever inputs are hardwired (resolvers connected to the thrust levers, powered by the FADEC), other aircraft communications on the 787 are on an ethernet based network. Default mode for the FADEC if aircraft inputs are lost or invalid is "Air", as that is generally considered to be the 'safe' choice.
But even assuming some aircraft fault caused the FADECs to falsely believe the aircraft was 'on-ground', it would still take a pretty major error in the TCMA logic for it to actually trigger and shutdown the engine (especially lacking an associated thrust lever movement to idle). Never say never, but we're getting pretty far out on the probability tree for all these things to happen.
Yes. Thank you tdracer. All those postulating TCMA / FADEC faults please read and understand this clear explanation.

Then, ask yourselves which extraordinarily low probability bundle of previously unrevealed faults could spontaneously manifest themselves on both engines simultaneously.

Also ask yourselves why these faults manifested at that critical phase of flight and not during taxiing or take-off roll when some of the TCMA sensors would have been primed.

1 user liked this post.

Europa01
2025-06-16T08:03:00
permalink
Post: 11903688
TCMA / FADEC

Originally Posted by tdracer
Repeating myself (again), but ALL the TCMA logic is resident in the FADEC. It takes aircraft inputs of air/ground (again, not familiar with the specifics of the air/ground logic used on the 787/GEnx-1B, so don't ask), thrust lever position, and what the engine is actually doing (mainly N1) to determine if the engine is 'out of control'.
The thrust lever inputs are hardwired (resolvers connected to the thrust levers, powered by the FADEC), other aircraft communications on the 787 are on an ethernet based network. Default mode for the FADEC if aircraft inputs are lost or invalid is "Air", as that is generally considered to be the 'safe' choice.
But even assuming some aircraft fault caused the FADECs to falsely believe the aircraft was 'on-ground', it would still take a pretty major error in the TCMA logic for it to actually trigger and shutdown the engine (especially lacking an associated thrust lever movement to idle). Never say never, but we're getting pretty far out on the probability tree for all these things to happen.
Yes. Thank you tdracer. All those postulating TCMA / FADEC faults please read and understand this clear explanation.

Then, ask yourselves which extraordinarily low probability bundle of previously unrevealed faults could spontaneously manifest themselves on both engines simultaneously.

Also ask yourselves why these faults manifested at that critical phase of flight and not during taxiing or take-off roll when some of the TCMA sensors would have been primed.
unworry
2025-06-16T08:15:00
permalink
Post: 11903749
Originally Posted by Europa01
Yes. Thank you tdracer. All those postulating TCMA / FADEC faults please read and understand this clear explanation.

Then, ask yourselves which extraordinarily low probability bundle of previously unrevealed faults could spontaneously manifest themselves on both engines simultaneously.

Also ask yourselves why these faults manifested at that critical phase of flight and not during taxiing or take-off roll when some of the TCMA sensors would have been primed.
After reading tdracers informative post this morning, I too was musing: Why is all this attention being given to TCMA.

Of course, when the probable cause is profoundly unclear, our continuing distrust of latent technical systems comes to the fore .... as sadly, the shadow of MCAS still looms large in our imaginations

2 users liked this post.

Icarus2001
2025-06-16T09:28:00
permalink
Post: 11903754
Therefore I expect the recorder/s will only be read today or tomorrow. So "if there was a major issue they would know by now" is unlikely
My information differs to yours, We do know the EAFR was recovered on Saturday. Are you suggesting that it sat in a room for three days?

​​​​​​​ Dual engine failure is very unlikely to occur but this seems increasingly to be the case here. Possibly there was a single engine failure followed by shutting down the remaining engine by mistake, if this happened it wouldn't be the first time.
Wow you seriously think a professional crew would shutdown an engine below 400 feet?
​​​​​​​Is there any yaw or rudder deflection in any videos?
Compton3fox
2025-06-16T09:41:00
permalink
Post: 11903755
Originally Posted by FlyingUpsideDown
The PF could've been task focused flying manually, following the FD's and not expecting the sinking feeling of losing the lift. The PM has made the mistake without knowing. ie. he/she has selected the flaps all the way to UP believing that the gear was now retracting. Both pilots now think the gear is retracting, they have full thrust but are sinking into the ground. "Professional crews" like Air France for eg. have made way worse decisions. Slats are extended because they are the last to retract. I'm not convinced the RAT is deployed. If it has deployed it could've been a last ditch effort for the crew to bring the fuel control switches from RUN to CUTOFF & back to RUN believing they've had a dual engine failure. This would account for the RAT if it did deploy. The APU inlet door could've been open as well because they were carrying out an APU to Pack takeoff. Once the aircraft is airborne and the weight-on-wheels (WOW) switches indicate air mode , the main gear bogies automatically tilt to the neutral position before retraction. Also when the flaps passed the last takeoff position on the quadrant, the Landing gear configuration warning horn would've sounded further confusing the pilots.
If you read the thread, you would know:

The RAT was almost certainly deployed. 4 different sources.
The Flaps were not retracted. Visible at the accident site plus many other sources agreeing they were indeed down.
APU will autostart when all engine power is lost. Potentially explaining why the inlet door was open or partially open at the accident site. Mentioned in several previous posts
On a 787-8, the main bogies tilt as the 1st action of the gear retract sequence. As stated in previous posts. I don't think this happens unless gear is selected up. So the conclusion was, gear was selected up. One caveat, IIRC, there was some discussion around a failure could have caused the bogies to tilt without Gear up being selected but I don't recall the outcome.
As for the Air France remark, un-necessary IMHO. Let's respect the crews please.
Lord Farringdon
2025-06-17T00:36:00
permalink
Post: 11903890
Originally Posted by tdracer
Something that occurred to me after I went to bed last night: My assumption that the FDR readouts would rapidly reveal the cause may be flawed.

Let me explain.

The consensus is that both engines quit shortly after liftoff (that assumes that the RAT did in fact deploy). At least one of the data recorders has battery backup, so it should have kept functioning when all aircraft power was lost.

However...

Over the years, I've looked at lots and lots of digital flight data recorder outputs when investigating some sort of incident or other engine anomaly, So I have become rather familiar with some of the interesting characteristics of DFDR data.

On the 767 and 747-400, when you shutdown an engine and the IDG goes offline, there is a momentary 'glitch' in the electrical power system as it reconfigures for the available power source - this is why you see the flight deck displays flicker and return, and the cabin lights momentarily flicker. As a result, most of the avionics boxes 'reset' - this is quick, but it's not instantaneous. This shows up in the FDR data - sometimes as 'no valid data' for a few seconds, or as garbage readings of zero or 'full scale'. Now, looking at the FDR data, it's easy to simply disregard the data, so normally no big deal.

Starting with the 777 (and on the 787 and 747-8), this electrical power glitch was 'fixed' - there is slight delay (~quarter of a second IIRC) before the fuel cutoff signal is sent to the engine - during which the electrical system reconfiguration takes place so no more 'glitch' during a normal engine shutdown...Except whatever happened to these engines wasn't 'normal'.

If there is a fuel cut at high power, the engine spools down incredibly rapidly - a second or two from max power to sub-idle. Assuming the fuel cut wasn't commanded by the flight deck fuel switches, the electrical system won't know it's coming, so it can't reconfigure until after the engine generators drop offline - and you're going to get that power glitch. Nearly every avionics box on the aircraft will reset due to this electrical glitch, and the FDR isn't going to get useful data for a few seconds (and then, only from the stuff that's on the battery bus).

Whatever happened, happened quickly - it's quite possible that whatever initiated the high-power fuel cut didn't get recorded.
Thanks as always TDR for your excellent professional input. It is therefore so much more perplexing that even you cant logic our way out of this impasse. That is, the assumption that the aircraft experienced a double engine failure (supported by a reasonably convincing argument that the RAT deployed), and yet no plausible reason (that we can see) for such an event. So some then collectively slip into the tired and lazy theories of intentional or unintentional crew actions that 1. beggar belief (intentional), 2. defy physics (flaps instead of gear despite clear evidence to the contrary) and call into question the professionalism of a very experienced Captain and crew as well as the aircraft manufacturer (because...well its Boeing so it must be software ).

Yet, the answer must be simpler and staring us in the face since logic and experience (everything you have offered TDR), tell us that modern airliner engines generally do not just suddenly quit flying at the same time. In this regard we can recall several instances of double engine failure associated with bird strikes generally involving large birds or large flocks or both. But it seems we have discounted this theory very early in discussion. Why? Because we cant see any birds, or flocks of birds or engine flames/surges or puffs of smokes from the engines which would support this. Really?

I have read all the 100's of posts (sadly) and while some very early posters tried to analyze the imagery, I suspect the very poor quality eventually discouraged most from seeing anything of interest. However, smattered throughout this discussion from the beginning to the end there have about four posts that describe seeing something where others have not. At least two of these were related to possible smoke but which were probably just the dust blown outwards by the wingtip vortices. Two others however have mentioned possible flames and puffs of smoke.

The video of course is very poor. There should be a special place in hell for people who subject us to looking at a video with continuous zooming in and out, inability to retain focus on the subject (it was just a CCTV monitor, not the actual aircraft they had to focus on) and constant camera shake. A video of a video, and then the resolution probably reduced for social media upload. This all results in a very unwatchable record of the aircrafts departure. The only immediate information gleaned seems to be some idea of how far down the runway the aircraft was at takeoff and the parabolic curve as it very clearly described the aircrafts flight path.




Air India Flight 171 on departure
But take a look at this frame. The right engine shows an artifact (pixelation if you like) that might represent a surge flame. I can almost see a puff of smoke just inboard of the aileron that may be associated with that too.

Am I just seeing distortion? Am I just seeing some smoke because that's where I would expect to see it?
We are all very used to seeing everything in 4K today but back in the day when everything was low res we used to join the dots. If pixels existed then something was there. If they didn't, it wasn't.
So if it's just pixels caused by distortion then they have coincidentally appeared in the tailpipe of an aircraft that crashed shortly after takeoff with a presumed double engine failure.

But surely we would see the birds? Well, not in this video. You cant even see the registration number on the side of the aircraft and that is much bigger than a bird. Haze, distortion, focus and low res, and each individual bird wouldn't even make up a pixel.

So make of this what you will, but this problem may have started on the ground. Birds strikes are very common according to Some AI pilots who interviewed for this following article but I have no idea of the authenticity of this report:

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/a...h/20250613.htm "The Air India pilots also added that Ahmedabad airport has long been known for bird activity near the runway, which could have contributed to the incident.

"This issue (of the excessive presence of birds) has been flagged multiple times," a third Air India pilot said, asking not to be named."
Of course, a single engine failure would not have brought this aircraft down, nor would it have deployed the RAT, but we can't see what happened on the left engine when the aircraft slipped behind the radio antenna building.

While these high bypass engines are designed and certified to keep running after experiencing certain types of bird strike, the effect on two engines concerns have been voiced about the contribution of certification to the mitigation of the risk hazardous bird strike in the two engine case.

This from Sky Library:
https://skybrary.aero/articles/aircr...nue%20to%20fly .

" A number of concerns have been quite widely voiced about the contribution of certification to the mitigation of the risk of hazardous bird strikes:
  • The case of bird ingestion into more than one engine at the same time is not addressed directly and it is clearly extremely difficult to meaningfully estimate the probability of such an occurrence. However, it has been observed that, since some of the current standards only require that a damaged engine can be safely shut down, this circumstance should be more fully considered when determining the acceptable outcome of ingestion into single engines, especially for the twin engine case.
  • It has been noted that the potential effects of bird strikes on modern electronic flight control systems and flight deck instrument displays have not yet been fully assessed.

Maybe someone can do some video enhancing of this image as others have done with the audio enhancement to give strong probability of RAT deployment.

If my suggestion can be corroborated at all, then the question of what happened next becomes somewhat easier to answer. Perhaps neither engine stopped running but they did so with limited thrust? If anything from the pilots mayday call can believed, it wasn't engines shut down..it was no thrust. So why did the RAT deploy? Cant answer that. And, I cant imagine it would be manually deployed if both engines were still running.
However, TDR did say.

"On the 767 and 747-400, when you shutdown an engine and the IDG goes offline, there is a momentary 'glitch' in the electrical power system as it reconfigures for the available power source - this is why you see the flight deck displays flicker and return, and the cabin lights momentarily flicker."

Startle factor that electrically systems were about to fail? Manually deploy RAT?

Edit: I might add, they would have found remains on the runway if this did indeed happen. But we have heard anything from anybody?
OldnGrounded
2025-06-17T02:42:00
permalink
Post: 11903927
Originally Posted by Lord Farringdon
[. . .] In this regard we can recall several instances of double engine failure associated with bird strikes generally involving large birds or large flocks or both. But it seems we have discounted this theory very early in discussion. Why? Because we cant see any birds, or flocks of birds or engine flames/surges or puffs of smokes from the engines which would support this. Really?
[. . .]
Edit: I might add, they would have found remains on the runway if this did indeed happen. But we have heard anything from anybody?
It seems pretty unlikely that a bird strike that took out both of those very big engines simultaneously would not have been fairly obvious in ways that nearby observers (e.g., the crew, ATC, airport personnel?) would have noticed. Possible, of course, but I don't think we've seen any evidence that points in that direction. Also, for what it's worth, the Times of London June 15 story " New clues point to engine failure for cause of Air India plane crash " cited here in the closed thread includes this:

The Indian authorities indicated that a bird strike has been ruled out.
A poster in the closed thread pointed out, properly I think, that the Times shouldn't be relied upon for presentation or interpretation of technical information. Like most general news organizations, their reporters and editors (mostly) just don't have the background to assess, filter and explain complex processes and technology. Unlike many, though, the Times can generally be relied upon to seek appropriate sources and report accurately what those sources say. I think it's very likely that Indian authorities have ruled out a bird strike, and I also think those authorities are competent to make that decision.

2 users liked this post.

bbofh
2025-06-17T03:27:00
permalink
Post: 11903939
WHEN something catastrophic happens, like dual engine failure, that then creates a query about any "duality" between two standalone systems that really should have nothing whatsoever in common... except the PF.
Nothing in common? Is that really the case for the 787-8 in the Air India 787 crash?
Look at these three TCMA-related links in the order presented and note the proforma prescriptive caveats in the first two:

https://downloads.regulations.gov/FA...tachment_1.pdf
https://downloads.regulations.gov/FA...tachment_1.pdf
https://patents.google.com/patent/US6704630B2/en

TCMA is designed to detect and accommodate single failures within the EEC/FADEC, preventing a failure from jeopardizing the safe operation of the aircraft.
Implementation:
It involves implementing specific software changes within the engine's control system (EEC).
Regulation:
After some incidents, the design change was mandated by regulators, with a deadline for production aircraft by December 31, 2018, and a retrofit plan for existing aircraft.
Boeing 787 Application:
The TCMA feature is specifically relevant to the 787-8 equipped with GEnx-1B engines, but it may also be applicable to other 787 variants using the same engine type.

The first two links are respectively the request for and FAA affirmation/approval for a GENx-1b software system called TCMA (Thrust Control Malfunction Accommodation). TCMA is the system that precludes High Uncommanded Thrust (HUT) after touchdown by fuel-chopping the engines. It is designed to avoid runway departures. One input is power-lever position. It's then fair to say that (additionally) Air/Ground sensing is quintessentially vital (as to when the system is "armed" and can do this fuel-chop). The third link is the complex description (with diagrams) of the patent application's design functionality of TCMA.
FROM THE 3rd link above:
"​​​​​​The method of the present invention compares the engine's actual power level with a threshold contour defined by the TCMA software package. When the TCMA software package determines that a thrust control malfunction has occurred, based on the engine's power level exceeding the threshold contour, the engine is shut down by the TCMA circuit." It is also notable that it says within the 3rd link that "Typically the aircraft is allowed to operate for a limited period of time with just a single operative processing subsystem."
That Air India 787 was not long out of maintenance.
We are then motivated to ask "what dictates the Air/Ground sensing". Is it just a Weight-on-Wheels microswitch or a RADAlt? (or both? or triplicated micro-switches?). We may then ask: "Did Air India implement the post-5G changes to their RADAlts that concentrated on maintaining their auto-land capability (in the face of 5G interference with RADAlts?) I seem to recall that the FAA's dictums on this pointed out that it was an individual nation's responsibility to both control their 5G frequency spectrums and implement changes to Radar altimeters that would work interference-free in critical phases of flight. What has the Indian regulator done in this regard as the responsible entity? The whole shemozzle, starting with the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) spectrum allocations, was an ongoing fight between the telecom giants and their getting their new mobile tech to market.

So where are we going with this line of causal reasoning? The only commonality/duality between left and right engines is the software driving the TCMA as monitored by the TCMA software incorporated in each engine's EEC. Most pundits have identified the gear-tilt as evidence that only the centre electrically-driven pump can do the gear-tilt if the engines' other two hyd systems are suddenly both in QUIT mode (which accords also with the instant RAT deployment and loud noise heard by the sole survivor) - and an ensuing transition from climb-out to a deadly sinking and commensurate attitude change for speed maint.
My unavoidable conclusion is that the selection of gear UP and the breaking of the gear downlocks (and WOW sensing and energization of the RADALTs) called upon the TCMA to fuel-chop the engines (via the TCMA functionality in each engine's EEC).
We could start by looking at the No Break Power Transfer (NBPT) tech used in modern airliners. This has led to Gen Control Panel meltdowns in 777's due to GEN contact meltdown. I know of one instance when a 773 was reduced to a RAT only landing enroute and another where a disastrous MEC fire occurred after start on pushback at LHR. A description of the systems glitch often experienced is at the following link. It's quite apparently a "gear-up" hiccup with potential damning consequences for smooth TCMA operation. As to be seen in the quality videos, a fuel-chop provides no real clue (such as engine failure/smoke/fire classically does). An uncommanded "reset" of the two engine's TCMA's upon gear retraction (link below) is trackable to be the sought after "duality" leading to a "both simultaneously quit" engine failure. These momentary electrical glitches and instant "resets" are described in the two links below. Food for reasoned thought?

https://tinyurl.com/yn5ce4tz

https://tinyurl.com/3kkh6n3d

3 users liked this post.

RetiredBA/BY
2025-06-17T08:42:00
permalink
Post: 11904091
Originally Posted by OldnGrounded
It seems pretty unlikely that a bird strike that took out both of those very big engines simultaneously would not have been fairly obvious in ways that nearby observers (e.g., the crew, ATC, airport personnel?) would have noticed. Possible, of course, but I don't think we've seen any evidence that points in that direction. Also, for what it's worth, the Times of London June 15 story " New clues point to engine failure for cause of Air India plane crash " cited here in the closed thread includes this:



A poster in the closed thread pointed out, properly I think, that the Times shouldn't be relied upon for presentation or interpretation of technical information. Like most general news organizations, their reporters and editors (mostly) just don't have the background to assess, filter and explain complex processes and technology. Unlike many, though, the Times can generally be relied upon to seek appropriate sources and report accurately what those sources say. I think it's very likely that Indian authorities have ruled out a bird strike, and I also think those authorities are competent to make that decision.
Hardly surprising they have ruled out bird strikes.
Just take a look at the video of the Thomson 757 bird strike at Manchester, quite dramatic visual evidence from the affected engine, smoke and flames, none of which is observed in the IA accident video.
Musician
2025-06-17T09:56:00
permalink
Post: 11904155
Bird strike ruled out

Originally Posted by OldnGrounded
It seems pretty unlikely that a bird strike that took out both of those very big engines simultaneously would not have been fairly obvious in ways that nearby observers (e.g., the crew, ATC, airport personnel?) would have noticed. Possible, of course, but I don't think we've seen any evidence that points in that direction.
Agreed.
Also, I expect the airport would've sent a car out to check the runway for evidence. Since we agree that the engine failure occurred near rotation, and that rotation occured well inside the runway ( see e.g. fdr here , or the granular ADS-B data), that car would've encountered a bloody mess, and we'd all know about it by now.

Also, for what it's worth, the Times of London June 15 story " New clues point to engine failure for cause of Air India plane crash " cited here in the closed thread includes this:
The Indian authorities indicated that a bird strike has been ruled out.
A poster in the closed thread pointed out, properly I think, that the Times shouldn't be relied upon for presentation or interpretation of technical information. Like most general news organizations, their reporters and editors (mostly) just don't have the background to assess, filter and explain complex processes and technology. Unlike many, though, the Times can generally be relied upon to seek appropriate sources and report accurately what those sources say. I think it's very likely that Indian authorities have ruled out a bird strike, and I also think those authorities are competent to make that decision.
The problem with these reports is that the Indian AAIB and DGCA websites ( aaib.gov.in www.dgca.gov.in ) are mute on the subject of this crash, so even the DGCA inspection mandate quoted above is shakily sourced. On Friday, AvHerald had already updated with "On Jun 13th 2025 the DGCA reported, that initial preliminary findings rule out a bird strike as no bird carcasses have been found." I searched for a source for this, and found an "exclusive" which read, "The initial probe report of the Ahmedabad Air India crash, accessed by CNN-News18, reveals key findings from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation\x92s assessment led by the director of security." Other media simply quoted News18. There are two reasons to be skeptical here:
\x95 first, we have seen fake reports circulating;
\x95 secondly, News18 rates badly on mediabiasfactcheck.com: "Launched in 2005, CNN-News18 (formerly CNN-IBN) is an English-language Indian news television channel based in India. We also rate them Questionable based on a poor fact-checking record with numerous false claims."
That leads me to consider that this "exclusive" might be sloppy reporting based on a fake\x97I have no way to know whether it is legitimate or not.

At this point, I feel we can only rely on information being official if it's published through an official website, or if there's independent reporting or a video clip from an official press briefing.

I do believe the accident was not caused by an animal strike, for many reasons.
But I wouldn't believe it based on unsourced reporting alone.

4 users liked this post.

framer
2025-06-17T10:59:00
permalink
Post: 11904202
There is a possibility that doesn\x92t get much air time on this forum that satisfies all the \x91facts\x92 ( pprune facts mind you), and requires less mental gymnastics to believe than many of the theories put forward. I\x92m not saying it\x92s what happened at all but it seems much more likely than a TCMA fault to me.
This link is to a Japanese report on a Jetstar 787-8 with GE engines that had both engines drop below idle while airborne due to magnesium salts effecting the operation of the FSV spools. The Magnesium salts came from a biocide dose by maintenance two days earlier.
For some reason I can\x92t paste the link but if you google JTSB the report number is AI2020-2.
I think it\x92s quite easy to imagine that a simple maintenance error ( 1000ppm instead of 100ppm) combined with extremely bad luck on timing lead to this accident.
I think I\x92m favouring a theory like this for its simplicity and the fact that fuel is the elephant in the room when you are dealing with a dual engine failure.



9 users liked this post.

sorvad
2025-06-17T11:11:00
permalink
Post: 11904210
Originally Posted by framer
There is a possibility that doesn\x92t get much air time on this forum that satisfies all the \x91facts\x92 ( pprune facts mind you), and requires less mental gymnastics to believe than many of the theories put forward. I\x92m not saying it\x92s what happened at all but it seems much more likely than a TCMA fault to me.
This link is to a Japanese report on a Jetstar 787-8 with GE engines that had both engines drop below idle while airborne due to magnesium salts effecting the operation of the FSV spools. The Magnesium salts came from a biocide dose by maintenance two days earlier.
For some reason I can\x92t paste the link but if you google JTSB the report number is AI2020-2.
I think it\x92s quite easy to imagine that a simple maintenance error ( 1000ppm instead of 100ppm) combined with extremely bad luck on timing lead to this accident.
I think I\x92m favouring a theory like this for its simplicity and the fact that fuel is the elephant in the room when you are dealing with a dual engine failure.
That’s really interesting, I’d not heard of that incident. The report does say though that particular biocide had been withdrawn due to other engine thrust occurences.

1 user liked this post.

Gary Brown
2025-06-17T11:43:00
permalink
Post: 11904233
Originally Posted by framer
There is a possibility that doesn\x92t get much air time on this forum that satisfies all the \x91facts\x92 ( pprune facts mind you), and requires less mental gymnastics to believe than many of the theories put forward. I\x92m not saying it\x92s what happened at all but it seems much more likely than a TCMA fault to me.
This link is to a Japanese report on a Jetstar 787-8 with GE engines that had both engines drop below idle while airborne due to magnesium salts effecting the operation of the FSV spools. The Magnesium salts came from a biocide dose by maintenance two days earlier.
For some reason I can\x92t paste the link but if you google JTSB the report number is AI2020-2.
I think it\x92s quite easy to imagine that a simple maintenance error ( 1000ppm instead of 100ppm) combined with extremely bad luck on timing lead to this accident.
I think I\x92m favouring a theory like this for its simplicity and the fact that fuel is the elephant in the room when you are dealing with a dual engine failure.
In that report, the factual conclusion is:

4. PROBABLE CAUSES
In this serious incident, it is highly probable that, when the Aircraft was descending for
landing, there occurred oscillation in rpm of each engine causing both engines to temporarily fall
below idle at separate times because Residue primarily composed of magnesium salts accumulated
in spools impeded movement of spools that involved in fuel metering of both engines.
(emphasis added)

and the narrative taken from the pilots is that while they happened in short order, the engine issues were not simultaneous. Not to say they couldn't be simultaneous, but they weren't. Also, the problems arose in the descent, as the engines were throttled back. Again, not to say it couldn't happen in the take-off, under full power.

3 users liked this post.

Lord Farringdon
2025-06-17T12:21:00
permalink
Post: 11904253
Originally Posted by OldnGrounded
It seems pretty unlikely that a bird strike that took out both of those very big engines simultaneously would not have been fairly obvious in ways that nearby observers (e.g., the crew, ATC, airport personnel?) would have noticed. Possible, of course, but I don't think we've seen any evidence that points in that direction. Also, for what it's worth, the Times of London June 15 story " New clues point to engine failure for cause of Air India plane crash " cited here in the closed thread includes this:



A poster in the closed thread pointed out, properly I think, that the Times shouldn't be relied upon for presentation or interpretation of technical information. Like most general news organizations, their reporters and editors (mostly) just don't have the background to assess, filter and explain complex processes and technology. Unlike many, though, the Times can generally be relied upon to seek appropriate sources and report accurately what those sources say. I think it's very likely that Indian authorities have ruled out a bird strike, and I also think those authorities are competent to make that decision.
Thanks for straightening me out on that one. Strange though that bird strike theory was ruled out so quickly without examining the wreckage or hearing the CVR? And still, the video potentially shows an right engine surge on the runway. If not a bird strike, then for what reason? Maybe I'm just seeing things since no one else seems to see this so I'll leave it there.

The second box has been recovered and the CVR is being analyzed so hopefully they will give an interim update shortly.
Icarus2001
2025-06-17T14:35:00
permalink
Post: 11904353
We know there was likely simultaneous dual engine failure very near Vr.
We DO NOT know that. If that had occurred how did the aircraft achieve initial climb?

2 users liked this post.

rkenyon
2025-06-17T17:19:00
permalink
Post: 11904487
Originally Posted by Magplug
B787 Skipper.... No longer able to sit on my hands!

The joker that published one or other of the fictional accident reports before the dead are even identified needs stringing up by the thumbs.... Well done mods. OK, some of these theories, just bearing in mind the the flight recorder (there is only one FDR + CVR combined) was in the intact section of the undamaged tail and has been with the authorities for almost five days......

- All you guys who are rushing down the TCMA rabbit hole: If it was established that a software error drove both engines to idle without warning, after rotate.... Don't you think the worldwide fleet of B787s would have been grounded by now? Such a glaring failure would be absolutely inescapable on the FDR.

Whatever was wrong with this aircraft was present at rotate, unbeknown to the crew. The fact that no ADs or notices to operators have been issued usually means that the cause is known and the aircraft was serviceable. The statement from a prominent Indian Captain about the skill and tenacity of the crew, right up to the last minute is absolutely laudable. However, the cynic in me says that the way is being paved for some bad news and by that I mean news that will do Air India reputational damage. Expect more management of expectation in the coming days.

I'm still going with
a) Incorrect derate + low Vspeeds or
b) Low altitude capture
Do you stand by your previous assertion :-

Originally Posted by Magplug
Speaking as a B787 Captain..... There is so much rubbish and stupid suggestion being written here.

- RAT out? Almost impossible, I have seen no quality footage that definitively witnesses the RAT being out. Those who think they car hear a RAT type noise might be listening to a motorcycle passing or similar. It takes a triple hydraulic failure or a double engine failure to trigger RAT deploment. They happily went through V1 without a hint of rejected take off so as they rotated the aircraft was serviceable. These are big engines, they take a long time to wind down when you shut them down. I have never tried it however engine failure detection takes 30s or for the aircraft to react and they were not even airborne that long.

7 users liked this post.

framer
2025-06-18T00:19:00
permalink
Post: 11904793
Regarding the momentum: As the first seconds of the climb were normal compared to previous T/Os of the same flight (speed & altitude, confirmed by comparison of the RAW ADS-B data) I don't believe the engine failure happened before or on lift-off.
I agree with this. For all the SLF reading and not posting ( good work!) there is a delay between the end of the takeoff run and the gear being selected up. I fly 737’s so any 78 folk feel free to correct me but it looks like this;
PM: “ V1 ….Rotate”
The PF then begins to rotate the aircraft up to a pre determined attitude which is normally between 13 and 15 degrees. They do this at a rate of between 2 and 3 degrees per second so about 5 or 6 seconds later the aircraft is at its climb out attitude. The PM is then looking at their instruments to confirm that the aircraft has a positive rate of climb, this takes a moment, maybe 1 to 3 seconds then;
PM “ positive rate”
PF: “ gear up”.
So minimum 8 seconds but probably longer between the PM calling “rotate” and the gear being selected up.
The relevance of all that is to say that if you suspect that the gear up cycle has been interrupted by a dual engine failure, then the engines may well have been producing thrust up to an altitude of 50-100ft or so, which ties in nicely with the max height reached, distance travelled etc.
Mods this is clearly not a theory, just info for those who don’t fly airliners to aid understanding.

11 users liked this post.

Bap7788
2025-06-18T11:50:00
permalink
Post: 11905173
Hi all,

Disclaimer: I read this thread from hour 1, still scratching my head regarding perf though.

I know sound analysis points to higher odds being a dual engine failure with RAT deployed, however I still have some questions if anyone is available to enlighten.

So, my questions is related to T/O performance.

Is it possible on the 787 to calculate perf in the OPT for F15/20 T/O, and to enter F5 T/O speed on the FMC ?

By that I mean do normal procedure, but at the point where you are suppose to enter flaps, CG speed ect…. You, out of habit (if F5 is indeed a habit on the 787) enter F5, but F15/20 speeds ? Or would there be a warning that you have manually inputed speeds that are not correct for the selected flaps and conditions inputed in the FMC ?

Thanks for the help !