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Someone Somewhere
2025-06-12T12:34:00 permalink Post: 11899162 |
For an aircraft that will likely have TOGA pressed and be at a high power setting (plus the RAT deployed) it sounds awfully quiet.
Perhaps the gear was down because they knew they were going to force land due to lack of thrust. (Only a 738 driver), but the electric pumps to drive the hydraulics is much slower than the engine driven pumps and so flap selection / re-selection could be not as expected. RIP to all involved. The 787 has 2x Enhanced Airborne Flight Recorders (EAFR), which each record both cockpit voice and flight data. Hopefully flight data is not going to be an issue for this investigation. It's also maybe visible in a few stills (e.g. post 64). Last edited by Someone Somewhere; 14th Jun 2025 at 06:01 . 2 users liked this post. |
Someone Somewhere
2025-06-13T11:34:00 permalink Post: 11900389 |
It's fine that the \x93Enhanced Airborne Flight Recorders\x94 have 10 minutes battery backup. If the bits of equipment/sensors sending data to be recorded don't have power, you will be recording 10 minutes of silence/blank data.
The concept of powering 'critical (sensor) equipment' has been floated - the problem being that it must be possible to power down malfunctioning equipment in case of fire - real or suspected. Having independent power supplies and battery back-ups all around the airframe, each with an ability to lose their magic smoke, is a poor idea. Commercial passenger jet aircraft already have robust power supplies with multiple generators and emergency battery support. However, if one malfunctions, rather than fails completely, it can be difficult to decide which one to disable, as it can cause problems in all systems. Once the RAT deployed at least some data should have come back.
Now, I am probably wrong about this, but if you forget to set the altitude window to the first altitude in departure and leave it at 0 (which with some airlines the previous crew will do on shutdown) the following might possibly occur. At 50 feet LNAV engages, at 100 feet the autopilot engages, at 400 feet VNAV engages but as the altitude window is set to 0 the aircraft (on autopilot) now descends to capture 0 feet. The speed at this point in VNAV is low (max V2 + 20 kts) so, to maintain that, both thrust levers close. This, of course, would be totally unexpected and could have a startle effect. If you do not realise what has caused this you might think that there is a problem with the engines and you have very little time to deal with it. I would suggest that putting out a Mayday call at this stage is not a good use of time.
As I stated at the beginning this is probably very unlikely and may not be possible, but could be tried in a simulator. It does not explain the RAT and generally you would expect crews to shove the thrust levers fully forward. 1 user liked this post. |
Semreh
2025-06-13T12:18:00 permalink Post: 11900437 |
https://skybrary.aero/sites/default/...shelf/2955.pdf I quote from it:
“The CVR function receives audio from three digital audio crew channels provided by the flight deck audio system and one analog audio channel from the cockpit area microphone and preamplifier,” Elliott said.
Data from the crew channels are sent to the forward EAFR and aft EAFR. Sounds from the cockpit area microphone also are sent as a data stream to both EAFRs. The forward EAFR, the cockpit area microphone and the preamplifier for this microphone have 10 minutes of backup power from a forward recorder independent power supply. The whole document is worth reading to glean more details. Last edited by T28B; 13th Jun 2025 at 16:39 . Reason: Formatting assistance |
mikepl
2025-06-13T12:47:00 permalink Post: 11900477 |
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QDM360
2025-06-13T18:47:00 permalink Post: 11900797 |
But the 787 was equipped with two redundant recorders. One in the aft, one in the front compartment. Both record identical data. If one of them was found in usable condition, then they're good. It will already have all the data they need. |
fdr
2025-06-13T22:13:00 permalink Post: 11900962 |
At this stage, at least two scenarios seem highly plausible:
1. Technical issue Airliners rely on air/ground logic , which is fundamental to how systems operate. There have been numerous crashes and serious incidents linked to this logic functioning incorrectly. Some engineering tests require the air/ground switch to be set in a particular mode. If it's inadvertently left in engineering mode—or if the system misinterprets the mode—this can cause significant problems.
2. Pilot misselection of fuel control switches to cutoff This is still a very real possibility. If it occurred, the pilot responsible may not have done it consciously—his mindset could have been in a different mode. There’s precedent: an A320 pilot once inadvertently shut down both engines over Paris. Fortunately, the crew managed to restart them. Afterward, the pilot reportedly couldn’t explain his actions. If something similar happened here, then when the pilots realized the engines had stopped producing thrust, pushing the levers forward would have had no effect. It’s easy to overlook that the fuel switches are in the wrong position—they're far from the normal scan pattern. And with the ground rushing up, the view outside would’ve been far more commanding. Speaking personally, when I shut down engines at the end of a flight, I consciously force myself to operate each fuel switch independently and with full attention. I avoid building muscle memory that might lead to switching off both engines in a fast, well-practiced habit. If this is a technical issue, I assume we’ll know soon enough. On item 2, the video shows no asymmetry at any time, so there is only a symmetric failure of the engines possible. Back on a B747 classic, you could chop all 4 engines at the same time with one hand, on a B737, also, not so much on a B777 or B787. I would doubt that anyone used two hands to cut the fuel at screen height. Note, there was a B744 that lost one engine in cruise when a clip board fell off the coaming. Didn't happen twice, and it only happened to one engine.
Yes indeed, the moment they pulled the gear lever, as we see the gear begin the retraction process, and then suddenly stop. Almost as if they suddenly lost power.
We can see the landing gear retraction process begin. We see the bogies tilted in the second video. We can hear the RAT. We can see the RAT. We can see the flaps extended in the video and at the crash site. There isn't actually a single piece of evidence the flaps were raised, it's just a conclusion people jumped too before evidence began to emerge. The crazy thing is, when the report comes out and there is no mention of flaps none of the people who have been pushing the flap theory will self reflect or learn anything. They'll think those of us who didn't buy into it were just lucky, rather than it being down to use of fairly simple critical thinking. Neila83 is correct, the gear tilt pre retraction is rear wheels low, and at the commencement of the selection of the retraction cycle (generally), There is enough in the way of anomalies here to end up with regulatory action, and airlines themselves should/will be starting to pore over their systems and decide if they are comfortable with the airworthiness of the aircraft at this moment. A latent single point of failure is not a comfortable place to be. Inhibiting TCMA might be a good interim option, that system could have been negated by having the ATR ARM switches....(Both)... ARM deferred to the before takeoff checks. The EAFR recovery should result in action within the next 24-48 hours. Boeing needs to be getting their tiger teams warmed up, they can ill afford to have a latent system fault discovered that is not immediately responded to, and the general corporate response of "blame the pilots" is not likely to win any future orders. I think we are about to have some really busy days for the OEM. Not sure that Neila83 is that far off the mark at all. Last edited by fdr; 14th Jun 2025 at 01:21 . Reason: corrected for B788 by Capt Bloggs! 8 users liked this post. |
Icarus2001
2025-06-15T05:37:00 permalink Post: 11902119 |
No evidence of RAT deployment from a poor image - There absolutely is, you're not following fully I'm afraid. There's a brilliant video by Juan Brown where he compares the sound of the plane passing with that of an American 787 on final with the RAT deployed. Identical sound
I tell you what I am watching closely, the words and subtle meaning in the press conference of Civil Aviation Minister, Shri Ram Mohan Naidu, who has set up a “special high level committee” to oversee the investigation of this “incident. A little odd given they have the DGCA and AAIB in place, dont you think? He indicates they are to report within three months. It is now 48 hours since the EAFR was recovered. A small group of people know the answer NOW. 6 users liked this post. |
Icarus2001
2025-06-15T07:57:00 permalink Post: 11902205 |
The better quality video does show something. It certainly could be the RAT. Automatic or manual deployment?
Assuming GE receive data from these engines in flight, a massive failure would prompt a swift communication from GE. Or a massive electrical issue could put Boeing on edge and also prompt urgent inspections on their aircraft. Since here we are two days after the EAFR was found then either both the aircraft manufacturer and the engine manufacturer know they are off the hook. That can only be for one of two reasons. They know there was a maintenance issue with this aircraft ( no IFE and call buttons?) or they know it was a handling error. Of course, tonight we may get urgent bulletins from Boeing or GE but the longer that does not happen, as Bloggs wisely stated, then we are left with a grim reality. Send in the clowns. 5 users liked this post. |
fdr
2025-06-15T17:58:00 permalink Post: 11902673 |
That is exactly what I am saying - that the only cause that can be
positively
identified at this point is pilot action whether accidental or deliberate. It's the only thing that can be conclusively ruled either in or out by now. However the tone of several of the messages here is that everything else has conclusively been ruled out because it has been three days, which makes no logical sense to me.
... From the comfort of my couch, I would contend that this crew have had a condition that was extraordinary (in the full meaning of the word) and have acted in a timely and correct manner. There is nothing in the flight path other than the fact the aircraft isn't at a gate in London that indicates otherwise. The fact the aircraft is not sitting in London does not have any characteristic event in the available information to conclude other than through the general assumption that pilots always cause problems, and having done nearly half a century in flight safety investigation in the military and airlines, I would contend that on balance flight crew save aircraft far more often than they cause losses. "It takes a computer to really stuff up something..."
That is exactly what I am saying - that the only cause that can be
positively
identified at this point is pilot action whether accidental or deliberate. It's the only thing that can be conclusively ruled either in or out by now. However the tone of several of the messages here is that everything else has conclusively been ruled out because it has been three days, which makes no logical sense to me.
There is no evidence to support an assumption of unlawful interference, it can, and has happened in the past, other than that it is cognitively apathetic to assume that the event is due to such action. The EAFR data will clear that up without question, but at this stage, the RT call indicates otherwise. The flight path also indicates that the crew were commanding the aircraft in a manner consistent with any competent pilot attempting to deal with a catastrophic event. ... To put it another way: if pilot action isn't the root cause, then what exactly is the investigation supposed to say right now other than the utterly redundant "well this is a headscratcher, and we're going to take a while to figure it out"? Are they supposed to turn into Chicken Little screaming that the sky is falling with no evidence-based justification? To be fair, you could perhaps argue that they should come out and "clear" the pilots' names, but that implies an obligation to social media hucksters and mobs that I don't think should exist. ... Also we should be wary of treating it like an either/or; poor crew response to a manageable fault stemming from a design weakness or maintenance issue is also an option. See e.g. the Swirijaya crash that was initiated by a faulty autothrottle, but the resulting upset was quite preventable and also recoverable even after it had developed. The untidy truth related to this event is that either causation will have ramifications to the industry for the foreseeable future; there is nothing trivial about this event from a systems viewpoint, apart from the devastating loss to every person concerned in the tragedy. Not than many accidents are so consequential in their impact, this will be one of those. 5 users liked this post. |
Icarus2001
2025-06-16T00:29:00 permalink Post: 11903005 |
AFAIK
the 787 DFDRs have an internal battery but if the power is off to the rest of the aeroplane, what data, if any, is going to make its way to the units?
It has been established that the B787 utilises a EAFR, a combined CVR and DFDR. 1 user liked this post. |
DIBO
2025-06-16T00:47:00 permalink Post: 11903013 |
* only the forward EAFR (Enhanced airborne flight recorder) has an (external) RIPS (Recorder independent power supply) * and this RIPS provides, in addition to the forward EAFR, the cockpit area microphone and the preamplifier for this microphone with 10 minutes of backup power Pretty recently, Indian media was reporting that the forward "CVR" has been recovered. Pure speculation..but one might interpret the use of this incorrect terminology and the continued search for this second 'black box' while the rear EAFR should have been easily recovered from the mostly intact tail-section, as an indication that things aren't going as well as expected regarding FDR/CVR data-extracting (as in rear EAFR lacking the last x crucial seconds, and forward EAFR now essential for recovery of the last x-seconds of area-CVR recordings, thanks to RIPS) 4 users liked this post. |
Icarus2001
2025-06-16T09:02:00 permalink Post: 11903285 |
Why would there be any word from Boeing or GE?
If Boeing or GE had any inkling that their product killed around 270 people they would quickly order inspection of the offending item or system or quickly amend a procedure. The fact they have not done this is illuminating. 4 users liked this post. |
Icarus2001
2025-06-16T09:28:00 permalink Post: 11903310 |
Therefore I expect the recorder/s will only be read today or tomorrow. So "if there was a major issue they would know by now" is unlikely
​​​​​​​
Dual engine failure is very unlikely to occur but this seems increasingly to be the case here. Possibly there was a single engine failure followed by shutting down the remaining engine by mistake, if this happened it wouldn't be the first time.
​​​​​​​Is there any yaw or rudder deflection in any videos? Last edited by Icarus2001; 16th Jun 2025 at 09:41 . |
Lord Bracken
2025-06-16T09:34:00 permalink Post: 11903315 |
Quick example, EK 521 accident in DXB:
1.11 Flight Recorders The Aircraft was equipped with a Honeywell sold-state flight data recorder (SSFDR) and an L-3 Communication cockpit voice recorder (CVR). Both flight recorders were found mounted in their original locations on the Aircraft, with external signs of prolonged exposure to elevated temperatures. However, temperature indicators within each crash-survivable memory unit indicated that the memory components themselves had not been exposed to significantly elevated temperatures. The flight recorders were sent to the Air Accidents Investigation Branch (AAIB) facility in the United Kingdom for data retrieval in the presence of the Investigation Committee.
1.11. Flight Recorders 1.11.1. The aircraft was equipped with solid-state DFDR and solid-state CVR. DFDR and CVR were recovered from the accident site and taken to BEA, France by Investigator In-charge (IIC) from AAIB, Pakistan on 1st June, 2020. Despite having crash and heat effects, both recorders were successfully downloaded by BEA experts.
4 users liked this post. |
FullWings
2025-06-16T09:47:00 permalink Post: 11903332 |
a) It might be damaged and they are going to need to use forensic techniques to recover the data. This can take time. b) They could have read it out but due to lack of power to the rest of the aircraft and associated sensors at the time, it hasn\x92t recorded very much, like in the Jeju crash, so the investigation continues. 3 users liked this post. |
fdr
2025-06-13T22:13:00 permalink Post: 11903712 |
At this stage, at least two scenarios seem highly plausible:
1. Technical issue Airliners rely on air/ground logic , which is fundamental to how systems operate. There have been numerous crashes and serious incidents linked to this logic functioning incorrectly. Some engineering tests require the air/ground switch to be set in a particular mode. If it's inadvertently left in engineering mode—or if the system misinterprets the mode—this can cause significant problems.
2. Pilot misselection of fuel control switches to cutoff This is still a very real possibility. If it occurred, the pilot responsible may not have done it consciously—his mindset could have been in a different mode. There’s precedent: an A320 pilot once inadvertently shut down both engines over Paris. Fortunately, the crew managed to restart them. Afterward, the pilot reportedly couldn’t explain his actions. If something similar happened here, then when the pilots realized the engines had stopped producing thrust, pushing the levers forward would have had no effect. It’s easy to overlook that the fuel switches are in the wrong position—they're far from the normal scan pattern. And with the ground rushing up, the view outside would’ve been far more commanding. Speaking personally, when I shut down engines at the end of a flight, I consciously force myself to operate each fuel switch independently and with full attention. I avoid building muscle memory that might lead to switching off both engines in a fast, well-practiced habit. If this is a technical issue, I assume we’ll know soon enough. On item 2, the video shows no asymmetry at any time, so there is only a symmetric failure of the engines possible. Back on a B747 classic, you could chop all 4 engines at the same time with one hand, on a B737, also, not so much on a B777 or B787. I would doubt that anyone used two hands to cut the fuel at screen height. Note, there was a B744 that lost one engine in cruise when a clip board fell off the coaming. Didn't happen twice, and it only happened to one engine.
Yes indeed, the moment they pulled the gear lever, as we see the gear begin the retraction process, and then suddenly stop. Almost as if they suddenly lost power.
We can see the landing gear retraction process begin. We see the bogies tilted in the second video. We can hear the RAT. We can see the RAT. We can see the flaps extended in the video and at the crash site. There isn't actually a single piece of evidence the flaps were raised, it's just a conclusion people jumped too before evidence began to emerge. The crazy thing is, when the report comes out and there is no mention of flaps none of the people who have been pushing the flap theory will self reflect or learn anything. They'll think those of us who didn't buy into it were just lucky, rather than it being down to use of fairly simple critical thinking. Neila83 is correct, the gear tilt pre retraction is rear wheels low, and at the commencement of the selection of the retraction cycle (generally), There is enough in the way of anomalies here to end up with regulatory action, and airlines themselves should/will be starting to pore over their systems and decide if they are comfortable with the airworthiness of the aircraft at this moment. A latent single point of failure is not a comfortable place to be. Inhibiting TCMA might be a good interim option, that system could have been negated by having the ATR ARM switches....(Both)... ARM deferred to the before takeoff checks. The EAFR recovery should result in action within the next 24-48 hours. Boeing needs to be getting their tiger teams warmed up, they can ill afford to have a latent system fault discovered that is not immediately responded to, and the general corporate response of "blame the pilots" is not likely to win any future orders. I think we are about to have some really busy days for the OEM. Not sure that Neila83 is that far off the mark at all. |
Icarus2001
2025-06-16T00:29:00 permalink Post: 11903729 |
AFAIK
the 787 DFDRs have an internal battery but if the power is off to the rest of the aeroplane, what data, if any, is going to make its way to the units?
It has been established that the B787 utilises a EAFR, a combined CVR and DFDR. |
DIBO
2025-06-16T00:47:00 permalink Post: 11903732 |
* only the forward EAFR (Enhanced airborne flight recorder) has an (external) RIPS (Recorder independent power supply) * and this RIPS provides, in addition to the forward EAFR, the cockpit area microphone and the preamplifier for this microphone with 10 minutes of backup power Pretty recently, Indian media was reporting that the forward "CVR" has been recovered. Pure speculation..but one might interpret the use of this incorrect terminology and the continued search for this second 'black box' while the rear EAFR should have been easily recovered from the mostly intact tail-section, as an indication that things aren't going as well as expected regarding FDR/CVR data-extracting (as in rear EAFR lacking the last x crucial seconds, and forward EAFR now essential for recovery of the last x-seconds of area-CVR recordings, thanks to RIPS) |
Icarus2001
2025-06-16T09:28:00 permalink Post: 11903754 |
Therefore I expect the recorder/s will only be read today or tomorrow. So "if there was a major issue they would know by now" is unlikely
​​​​​​​
Dual engine failure is very unlikely to occur but this seems increasingly to be the case here. Possibly there was a single engine failure followed by shutting down the remaining engine by mistake, if this happened it wouldn't be the first time.
​​​​​​​Is there any yaw or rudder deflection in any videos? |
DIBO
2025-06-16T23:16:00 permalink Post: 11903863 |
* only the forward EAFR (Enhanced airborne flight recorder) has an (external) RIPS (Recorder independent power supply)
* and this RIPS provides, in addition to the forward EAFR, the cockpit area microphone and the preamplifier for this microphone with 10 minutes of backup power |