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AndyJS
June 16, 2025, 02:10:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11903023
This has just appeared in the Times (of London) which is usually one of the most reliable sources of information in the UK.

"A loss of engine power is emerging as the most likely cause of the crash of the Air India Boeing that killed at least 279 people at Ahmedabad on Thursday. The Boeing 787-8 series appeared to have suffered from lower than normal thrust from its General Electric GEnx engines as it took off and failed to climb more than 450ft before crashing, video and reports from the Indian authorities have indicated.The new information has eclipsed an early focus on the unusual configuration of the aircraft\x92s wing flaps and landing gear."

https://www.thetimes.com/world/asia/...rash-vhqw6b7v3

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Subjects GEnx (ALL)

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OldnGrounded
June 16, 2025, 02:40:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11903037
Originally Posted by AndyJS
This has just appeared in the Times (of London) which is usually one of the most reliable sources of information in the UK.

"A loss of engine power is emerging as the most likely cause of the crash of the Air India Boeing that killed at least 279 people at Ahmedabad on Thursday. The Boeing 787-8 series appeared to have suffered from lower than normal thrust from its General Electric GEnx engines as it took off and failed to climb more than 450ft before crashing, video and reports from the Indian authorities have indicated.The new information has eclipsed an early focus on the unusual configuration of the aircraft\x92s wing flaps and landing gear."

https://www.thetimes.com/world/asia/...rash-vhqw6b7v3

(subscription required to read the article)
Thanks for the heads up. The story also says, "No cause has yet been identified for what would be an extremely rare power loss from both engines, but on Sunday the Indian civil air authority (DGCA) began urgent pre-flight inspections of fuel systems, electronic engine controls and other systems on Indian Boeing 787s."

And it quotes Juan Browne (Blancolirio): \x93There was something terribly wrong with this 787 jet and we need to find out really quickly what went wrong because we\x92ve got a thousand of these operating today and operators need to find out what happened.\x94

Subjects DGCA  GEnx (ALL)

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fgrieu
June 16, 2025, 06:28:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11903104
Trouble before rotation ?
Based on the video taken from the left of the flight path, can we determine at what point of the runway rotation occurred? Is there positive confirmation that the takeoff roll started at the beginning of the runway ? Are the two indicative of trouble before rotation, as the Times states ?
The Indian authorities confirmed on Sunday that the 787 (...) struggled to become airborne, using almost all of the 3,500m runway. That is notably more than the length that would have been calculated by the plane\x92s computer for the hot conditions and heavy load that day.
Source: https://www.thetimes.com/world/asia/...rash-vhqw6b7v3 (paywalled)
Last edited by fgrieu; 16th June 2025 at 06:32 . Reason: Add title and reference

Subjects Takeoff Roll

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mechpowi
June 16, 2025, 06:39:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11903111
Originally Posted by fgrieu
Based on the video taken from the left of the flight path, can we determine at what point of the runway rotation occurred? Is there positive confirmation that the takeoff roll started at the beginning of the runway ? Are the two indicative of trouble before rotation, as the Times states ?

Source: https://www.thetimes.com/world/asia/...rash-vhqw6b7v3 (paywalled)

In the very early posts it was concluded from the evidence available that the takeoff roll started at the begining of the runway and the rotation was with around 4000 ft of runway remaining. The rotation point was assessed to be similar to other take offs. Aircraft attitude and flight path during rotation and lift off was assessed to seem normal.

Subjects Takeoff Roll

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fdr
June 16, 2025, 07:44:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11903147
Originally Posted by fgrieu
Based on the video taken from the left of the flight path, can we determine at what point of the runway rotation occurred? Is there positive confirmation that the takeoff roll started at the beginning of the runway ? Are the two indicative of trouble before rotation, as the Times states ?

Source: https://www.thetimes.com/world/asia/...rash-vhqw6b7v3 (paywalled)
Yes.
1250m from the end of the runway, between high speed C and D, adjacent to the closed high speed.
There is nothing unusual with the rate of acceleration that is observable ninth video. You can work that out using google earth and the Indian AIP and/or state airport charts. The weight of the plane can be estimated by the flight time and pax load and an allowance for cargo. The simplified TO performance is in the inflight performance section of the FCOM, which you may find a copy on line.
The aircrafts rotation has no obvious issues, until a few seconds after achieving an attitude that is consistent with the V2+15-25 range, at which point the ROC visibly starts to decay.

Subjects FCOM  Takeoff Roll

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appruser
June 16, 2025, 07:59:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11903161
Originally Posted by fgrieu
Based on the video taken from the left of the flight path, can we determine at what point of the runway rotation occurred? Is there positive confirmation that the takeoff roll started at the beginning of the runway ? Are the two indicative of trouble before rotation, as the Times states ?

Source: https://www.thetimes.com/world/asia/...rash-vhqw6b7v3 (paywalled)
IMO, I don't know if that is trustworthy - the FR24 ADSB data seems to show that the aircraft was at 21ft AGL between the 1500ft and 2000ft markers from the end of the runway.

https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/f...rom-ahmedabad/

I don't know if I'm allowed to post pictures - my last post with a picture didn't show up, so I'll try adding it separately from this one. It's basically an overlay of the FR24 blogpost map on a google maps satellite view of VAAH.

Subjects ADSB  FlightRadar24  Takeoff Roll

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MarineEngineer
June 16, 2025, 10:50:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11903338
The Times is not authoritative.
Originally Posted by fgrieu
Based on the video taken from the left of the flight path, can we determine at what point of the runway rotation occurred? Is there positive confirmation that the takeoff roll started at the beginning of the runway ? Are the two indicative of trouble before rotation, as the Times states ?

Source: https://www.thetimes.com/world/asia/...rash-vhqw6b7v3 (paywalled)
I would take any technical reporting in The Times with a pinch of salt. The author is the Paris correspondent, holds a PPL and read English at university.
The paper's science editor read Mathematics. As an engineer and Times subscriber, I have read many articles with technical errors.

Subjects Takeoff Roll

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AndyJS
June 16, 2025, 02:10:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11903736
This has just appeared in the Times (of London) which is usually one of the most reliable sources of information in the UK.

"A loss of engine power is emerging as the most likely cause of the crash of the Air India Boeing that killed at least 279 people at Ahmedabad on Thursday. The Boeing 787-8 series appeared to have suffered from lower than normal thrust from its General Electric GEnx engines as it took off and failed to climb more than 450ft before crashing, video and reports from the Indian authorities have indicated.The new information has eclipsed an early focus on the unusual configuration of the aircraft\x92s wing flaps and landing gear."

https://www.thetimes.com/world/asia/...rash-vhqw6b7v3

(subscription required to read the article)

Subjects GEnx (ALL)

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mechpowi
June 16, 2025, 06:39:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11903742
Originally Posted by fgrieu
Based on the video taken from the left of the flight path, can we determine at what point of the runway rotation occurred? Is there positive confirmation that the takeoff roll started at the beginning of the runway ? Are the two indicative of trouble before rotation, as the Times states ?

Source: https://www.thetimes.com/world/asia/...rash-vhqw6b7v3 (paywalled)

In the very early posts it was concluded from the evidence available that the takeoff roll started at the begining of the runway and the rotation was with around 4000 ft of runway remaining. The rotation point was assessed to be similar to other take offs. Aircraft attitude and flight path during rotation and lift off was assessed to seem normal.

Subjects Takeoff Roll

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fdr
June 16, 2025, 07:44:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11903746
Originally Posted by fgrieu
Based on the video taken from the left of the flight path, can we determine at what point of the runway rotation occurred? Is there positive confirmation that the takeoff roll started at the beginning of the runway ? Are the two indicative of trouble before rotation, as the Times states ?

Source: https://www.thetimes.com/world/asia/...rash-vhqw6b7v3 (paywalled)
Yes.
1250m from the end of the runway, between high speed C and D, adjacent to the closed high speed.
There is nothing unusual with the rate of acceleration that is observable ninth video. You can work that out using google earth and the Indian AIP and/or state airport charts. The weight of the plane can be estimated by the flight time and pax load and an allowance for cargo. The simplified TO performance is in the inflight performance section of the FCOM, which you may find a copy on line.
The aircrafts rotation has no obvious issues, until a few seconds after achieving an attitude that is consistent with the V2+15-25 range, at which point the ROC visibly starts to decay.

Subjects FCOM  Takeoff Roll

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MarineEngineer
June 16, 2025, 10:50:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11903757
The Times is not authoritative.
Originally Posted by fgrieu
Based on the video taken from the left of the flight path, can we determine at what point of the runway rotation occurred? Is there positive confirmation that the takeoff roll started at the beginning of the runway ? Are the two indicative of trouble before rotation, as the Times states ?

Source: https://www.thetimes.com/world/asia/...rash-vhqw6b7v3 (paywalled)
I would take any technical reporting in The Times with a pinch of salt. The author is the Paris correspondent, holds a PPL and read English at university.
The paper's science editor read Mathematics. As an engineer and Times subscriber, I have read many articles with technical errors.

Subjects Takeoff Roll

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OldnGrounded
June 17, 2025, 03:42:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11903927
Originally Posted by Lord Farringdon
[. . .] In this regard we can recall several instances of double engine failure associated with bird strikes generally involving large birds or large flocks or both. But it seems we have discounted this theory very early in discussion. Why? Because we cant see any birds, or flocks of birds or engine flames/surges or puffs of smokes from the engines which would support this. Really?
[. . .]
Edit: I might add, they would have found remains on the runway if this did indeed happen. But we have heard anything from anybody?
It seems pretty unlikely that a bird strike that took out both of those very big engines simultaneously would not have been fairly obvious in ways that nearby observers (e.g., the crew, ATC, airport personnel?) would have noticed. Possible, of course, but I don't think we've seen any evidence that points in that direction. Also, for what it's worth, the Times of London June 15 story " New clues point to engine failure for cause of Air India plane crash " cited here in the closed thread includes this:

The Indian authorities indicated that a bird strike has been ruled out.
A poster in the closed thread pointed out, properly I think, that the Times shouldn't be relied upon for presentation or interpretation of technical information. Like most general news organizations, their reporters and editors (mostly) just don't have the background to assess, filter and explain complex processes and technology. Unlike many, though, the Times can generally be relied upon to seek appropriate sources and report accurately what those sources say. I think it's very likely that Indian authorities have ruled out a bird strike, and I also think those authorities are competent to make that decision.

Subjects Dual Engine Failure  Engine Failure (All)

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RetiredBA/BY
June 17, 2025, 09:42:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11904091
Originally Posted by OldnGrounded
It seems pretty unlikely that a bird strike that took out both of those very big engines simultaneously would not have been fairly obvious in ways that nearby observers (e.g., the crew, ATC, airport personnel?) would have noticed. Possible, of course, but I don't think we've seen any evidence that points in that direction. Also, for what it's worth, the Times of London June 15 story " New clues point to engine failure for cause of Air India plane crash " cited here in the closed thread includes this:



A poster in the closed thread pointed out, properly I think, that the Times shouldn't be relied upon for presentation or interpretation of technical information. Like most general news organizations, their reporters and editors (mostly) just don't have the background to assess, filter and explain complex processes and technology. Unlike many, though, the Times can generally be relied upon to seek appropriate sources and report accurately what those sources say. I think it's very likely that Indian authorities have ruled out a bird strike, and I also think those authorities are competent to make that decision.
Hardly surprising they have ruled out bird strikes.
Just take a look at the video of the Thomson 757 bird strike at Manchester, quite dramatic visual evidence from the affected engine, smoke and flames, none of which is observed in the IA accident video.

Subjects Dual Engine Failure  Engine Failure (All)

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Musician
June 17, 2025, 10:56:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11904155
Bird strike ruled out
Originally Posted by OldnGrounded
It seems pretty unlikely that a bird strike that took out both of those very big engines simultaneously would not have been fairly obvious in ways that nearby observers (e.g., the crew, ATC, airport personnel?) would have noticed. Possible, of course, but I don't think we've seen any evidence that points in that direction.
Agreed.
Also, I expect the airport would've sent a car out to check the runway for evidence. Since we agree that the engine failure occurred near rotation, and that rotation occured well inside the runway ( see e.g. fdr here , or the granular ADS-B data), that car would've encountered a bloody mess, and we'd all know about it by now.

Also, for what it's worth, the Times of London June 15 story " New clues point to engine failure for cause of Air India plane crash " cited here in the closed thread includes this:
The Indian authorities indicated that a bird strike has been ruled out.
A poster in the closed thread pointed out, properly I think, that the Times shouldn't be relied upon for presentation or interpretation of technical information. Like most general news organizations, their reporters and editors (mostly) just don't have the background to assess, filter and explain complex processes and technology. Unlike many, though, the Times can generally be relied upon to seek appropriate sources and report accurately what those sources say. I think it's very likely that Indian authorities have ruled out a bird strike, and I also think those authorities are competent to make that decision.
The problem with these reports is that the Indian AAIB and DGCA websites ( aaib.gov.in www.dgca.gov.in ) are mute on the subject of this crash, so even the DGCA inspection mandate quoted above is shakily sourced. On Friday, AvHerald had already updated with "On Jun 13th 2025 the DGCA reported, that initial preliminary findings rule out a bird strike as no bird carcasses have been found." I searched for a source for this, and found an "exclusive" which read, "The initial probe report of the Ahmedabad Air India crash, accessed by CNN-News18, reveals key findings from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation\x92s assessment led by the director of security." Other media simply quoted News18. There are two reasons to be skeptical here:
\x95 first, we have seen fake reports circulating;
\x95 secondly, News18 rates badly on mediabiasfactcheck.com: "Launched in 2005, CNN-News18 (formerly CNN-IBN) is an English-language Indian news television channel based in India. We also rate them Questionable based on a poor fact-checking record with numerous false claims."
That leads me to consider that this "exclusive" might be sloppy reporting based on a fake\x97I have no way to know whether it is legitimate or not.

At this point, I feel we can only rely on information being official if it's published through an official website, or if there's independent reporting or a video clip from an official press briefing.

I do believe the accident was not caused by an animal strike, for many reasons.
But I wouldn't believe it based on unsourced reporting alone.

Subjects AAIB (All)  AAIB (India)  ADSB  AvHerald  DGCA  Dual Engine Failure  Engine Failure (All)

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Lord Farringdon
June 17, 2025, 13:21:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11904253
Originally Posted by OldnGrounded
It seems pretty unlikely that a bird strike that took out both of those very big engines simultaneously would not have been fairly obvious in ways that nearby observers (e.g., the crew, ATC, airport personnel?) would have noticed. Possible, of course, but I don't think we've seen any evidence that points in that direction. Also, for what it's worth, the Times of London June 15 story " New clues point to engine failure for cause of Air India plane crash " cited here in the closed thread includes this:



A poster in the closed thread pointed out, properly I think, that the Times shouldn't be relied upon for presentation or interpretation of technical information. Like most general news organizations, their reporters and editors (mostly) just don't have the background to assess, filter and explain complex processes and technology. Unlike many, though, the Times can generally be relied upon to seek appropriate sources and report accurately what those sources say. I think it's very likely that Indian authorities have ruled out a bird strike, and I also think those authorities are competent to make that decision.
Thanks for straightening me out on that one. Strange though that bird strike theory was ruled out so quickly without examining the wreckage or hearing the CVR? And still, the video potentially shows an right engine surge on the runway. If not a bird strike, then for what reason? Maybe I'm just seeing things since no one else seems to see this so I'll leave it there.

The second box has been recovered and the CVR is being analyzed so hopefully they will give an interim update shortly.

Subjects CVR  Dual Engine Failure  Engine Failure (All)

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