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Captain Fishy
2025-06-15T12:00:00 permalink Post: 11902407 |
What if the PF called stop just before V1and closed the thrust levers but either changed his mind or was overridden by the other pilot, who rapidly pushed the thrust levers back up. Could this trigger a TCMA intervention and subsequent dual engine shutdown as it was still on the runway at this point? Hopefully not.
2 users liked this post. |
mechpowi
2025-06-15T12:38:00 permalink Post: 11902430 |
What if the PF called stop just before V1 and closed the thrust levers but either changed his mind or was overridden by the other pilot, who rapidly pushed the thrust levers back up. Could this trigger a TCMA intervention and subsequent dual engine shutdown as it was still on the runway at this point? Hopefully not.
It also doesn\x92t explaine the ADS-B data showing acceleration after lift off. 1 user liked this post. |
JG1
2025-06-15T13:30:00 permalink Post: 11902476 |
A little bit tangential here, thinking about this Mayday call (the exact contents of which haven't been verified, but have been variously reported as "no power", or "lost power" ) , if in front of you on the PFD, in large red letters, you have the words ENG FAIL, why would you say, "no power"? Seems a bit strange. Why not say "engine failure" or "no thrust"?
Could it be that "No power" may have meant the whole cockpit went dark? ie. A total electrical failure or huge short (survivor's bang) initiating RAT deployment and apu autostart. Doesn't explain loss of thrust explicitly but if there was a massive electrical issue, and critical data was lost (thinking air/ground switch position and other fundamentals), would dual engine shutdown be a possibility? Simultaneous FADEC failure? Exceptionally remote possibility perhaps, but by definition these accidents are exceptionally remote. If the RAT deployed we know there was definitely an electrical issue - how bad was it, though? Thinking about the possibility of an electrical failure causing an engine (and instrumentation) failure rather than the other way around. Over to the experts on this. Last edited by JG1; 15th Jun 2025 at 14:20 . |
Icarus2001
2025-06-15T13:42:00 permalink Post: 11902480 |
Could it be that "No power" may have meant the whole cockpit went dark? ie. A total electrical failure, initiating RAT deployment and apu autostart. Doesn't explain loss of thrust explicitly but if there was a massive electrical issue, and critical data was lost (thinking air/ground switch position and other fundamentals), would dual engine shutdown be a possibility? Simultaneous FADEC failure? Exceptionally remote possibility perhaps, but by definition these accidents are exceptionally remote. Over to the experts on this.
The engines will just keep running despite total electrical failure. FADEC units are self powered and independent. Even a completely “dark” flight deck still has the ISIS. 3 users liked this post. |
Blake777
2025-06-15T13:54:00 permalink Post: 11902489 |
There's some possible fuel contamination mechanisms which would only affect one aircraft
- The fuel truck\x92s water-absorbing \x93monitor\x94 element breaks up, the first aircraft after the break gets the bead slug; later uplifts may be clear once the hose is flushed. The beads jam metering valves almost immediately. - After pipe maintenance, the first few hundred litres can carry residual cleaning surfactant that strips protective films and causes filter-monitor \x93soap lock\x94. - Biofilm growth happens inside one aircraft\x92s wing tanks when it sits in humid conditions or does short hops with warm fuel. On the next flight the biofilm shears off, blocks strainers, 1 user liked this post. |
EGPI10BR
2025-06-15T14:27:00 permalink Post: 11902507 |
A little bit tangential here, thinking about this Mayday call (the exact contents of which haven't been verified, but have been variously reported as "no power", or "lost power" ) , if in front of you on the PFD, in large red letters, you have the words ENG FAIL, why would you say, "no power"? Seems a bit strange. Why not say "engine failure" or "no thrust"?
Could it be that "No power" may have meant the whole cockpit went dark? ie. A total electrical failure or huge short (survivor's bang) initiating RAT deployment and apu autostart. Doesn't explain loss of thrust explicitly but if there was a massive electrical issue, and critical data was lost (thinking air/ground switch position and other fundamentals), would dual engine shutdown be a possibility? Simultaneous FADEC failure? Exceptionally remote possibility perhaps, but by definition these accidents are exceptionally remote. If the RAT deployed we know there was definitely an electrical issue - how bad was it, though? Thinking about the possibility of an electrical failure causing an engine (and instrumentation) failure rather than the other way around. Over to the experts on this. Misty. 1 user liked this post. |
yngve
2025-06-16T08:30:00 permalink Post: 11903248 |
Having followed this thread since the beginning, it is clear to me that this discussion is tainted by the fact that many contributors have MCAS and Boeing quality issues at the front of their minds.
I perfectly understand that, so no judgement from me, but it no doubt causes confirmation bias with conclusions being made about extremely improbable outcomes (dual engine failure at the same time during rotation/take off). The RAT being deployed does not prove a TCMA-failure on both engines nor does it prove that both engines failed (its still not disproved or proven if it was manually deployed). 1 user liked this post. |
lighttwin2
2025-06-16T08:51:00 permalink Post: 11903270 |
If TCMA cut fuel flow while still on the runway the aircraft would have been decelerating from the moment it lifted off, which is not what the ADS-B data indicates. The kinetic energy in the rotating parts of the engine wouldn't add much speed to the aircraft as the engines run down with no more energy being added via fuel.
In no particular order, here are some more thoughts on TCMA having caught up on the thread: If you cut the fuel from two big engines at take-off power, there must be some delay before n2 decays below the threshold for generation (below idle n2), the generators disconnect and RAT deploys. GEnx have relatively long spool up/down times as the fan is so large (and would be exposed to 170+kts of ram air). Perhaps someone has a view on how long this would be, but I imagine it could easily be 10s or more between fuel cut off and RAT deployment. On AI171 the RAT appears to be already deployed at the beginning of the bystander video. That starts c. 13s before impact and around 17s after rotation. This does not prove anything except that the supposed shut down must have happened very close to rotation and could have happened just before rotation while the a/c was on the ground. As a thought experiment, imagine if ANA985 in 2019 had decided to go around. The a/c rotates and is ~50 ft above the runway, suddenly both engines spooling down, very little runway left to land on and no reverse thrust available. I am struck by how similar this scenario is to AI171. This theory would require there to have been unexpected thrust lever movement in the moments before rotation - but plausibly one pilot moving to reject, followed by an overrule or change of heart - or even a simple human error such as the recent BA incident at LGW - could achieve this. This is perhaps more likely that any sensor fault that you would expect to only impact a single engine given the redundancy of systems. Tdracer writes that a key requirement of TCMA is to identify an engine runaway in the event of an RTO, in order to allow the a/c to stop on the runway. This will have been tested extensively - it is a big leap to imagine a false activation could be triggered. It did happen on ANA985 but through a very unusual set of inputs including application of reverse (albeit this latter point may not be relevant if TCMA logic does not distinguish between the reverser being deployed or not). Incidentally there is an assumption the TCMA software version in place on the ANA flight had already been patched and fixed on AI171. That probably is the case but I am not sure it is a known fact. In summary I remain baffled by this tragic accident. I have not yet read anything that explicitly rules out TCMA activation and it remains a possibility due to the vanishingly small number of factors that could shut down two engines at apparently the exact same moment when they have fully redundant systems. Fuel contamination, for example, has typically impacted each engine a few minutes (at least) apart. I am also cautious (as others have pointed out) of a form of confirmation bias about Boeing software systems with four-letter acronyms. In my mind the cause could equally well be something completely different to anything suggested on this thread, that will only become clear with more evidence. All of the above also incorporates a number of theories, i.e. that there was an engine shutdown - that are not conclusively known. Thank you to the mods for an excellent job. 3 users liked this post. |
Compton3fox
2025-06-16T09:21:00 permalink Post: 11903303 |
I have not read it all so pardon me if this has been covered already. The A350 had two separate cases of engines shutting down due to spilled coffee on the center console. It was just a thought that occurred to me, a forgotten water bottle left on the center console during rotation? Pilots are usually quite conscious about the liquid free areas but this happens at home, in the office... If someone with insight care to explain how the electrics is protected I am listening...
Airbus assumed their pilots would not spill their drinks but they did, and this resulted in an un-commanded dual engine shutdown. Now they have to use Sippy Cups! Boeing assumed their pilots would spill their drinks so made the system robust enough to tolerate liquid spills without shutting down the engines. 1 user liked this post. |
tdracer
2025-06-13T02:18:00 permalink Post: 11903415 |
Determined to be an ergonomics problem with the switch layout in the flightdeck. Early 767s (JT9D and CF6-80A) had a supervisory "EEC" (Electronic Engine Control - Boeing still uses "EEC" to identify what most people call the FADEC on modern engines). The procedure if an EEC 'failed' was to switch both EECs off (to prevent excessive throttle stagger - unlike FADEC, the engine could operate just fine with a supervisory EEC failed). Problem was that the EEC ON/OFF switch was located on the aisle stand - right above the fuel cutoff switches. Turned out 'muscle memory' was when the pilot reached down there, it was usually to turn the fuel ON or OFF - which is what they did. Fortunately realizing what he'd done wrong, the pilot quickly restored the switches to RUN and both engines recovered. And yes, they continued on to their destination (RAT was still deployed since there is no way to retract it in-flight). Previous event was with JT9D engines (United IIRC). In that case, only one engine recovered (second engine went into an unrecoverable stall), they simply came back around and did a single engine landing. Realizing the ergonomic issue, the EECs were relocated to the pilot's overhead (retrofit by AD). To the best of my knowledge, there hasn't been a repeat of an inadvertent dual engine shutdown since the EEC switches were relocated. It's also very difficult to 'accidentally' move the switches as there is a locking detent - the switch must be pulled out slightly before it can be moved to CUTOFF. 3 users liked this post. |
tdracer
2025-06-13T05:15:00 permalink Post: 11903416 |
Just as an example of how many misconceptions, mistruths, half truths and complete BS there is in this, and any accident, thread consider this\x85
I am very sure the only variant of the 757/767 that had a RAT was the 767-400, which was not in production in 1986. I flew the 767-200 and -300 with 3 different engine combinations (around 30-40 different airframes and 2 airlines) and none of them had a RAT. Happy to be corrected if this model 757 (or 767 as someone in a later post says) had a RAT. 2 users liked this post. |
fdr
2025-06-13T22:13:00 permalink Post: 11903712 |
At this stage, at least two scenarios seem highly plausible:
1. Technical issue Airliners rely on air/ground logic , which is fundamental to how systems operate. There have been numerous crashes and serious incidents linked to this logic functioning incorrectly. Some engineering tests require the air/ground switch to be set in a particular mode. If it's inadvertently left in engineering mode—or if the system misinterprets the mode—this can cause significant problems.
2. Pilot misselection of fuel control switches to cutoff This is still a very real possibility. If it occurred, the pilot responsible may not have done it consciously—his mindset could have been in a different mode. There’s precedent: an A320 pilot once inadvertently shut down both engines over Paris. Fortunately, the crew managed to restart them. Afterward, the pilot reportedly couldn’t explain his actions. If something similar happened here, then when the pilots realized the engines had stopped producing thrust, pushing the levers forward would have had no effect. It’s easy to overlook that the fuel switches are in the wrong position—they're far from the normal scan pattern. And with the ground rushing up, the view outside would’ve been far more commanding. Speaking personally, when I shut down engines at the end of a flight, I consciously force myself to operate each fuel switch independently and with full attention. I avoid building muscle memory that might lead to switching off both engines in a fast, well-practiced habit. If this is a technical issue, I assume we’ll know soon enough. On item 2, the video shows no asymmetry at any time, so there is only a symmetric failure of the engines possible. Back on a B747 classic, you could chop all 4 engines at the same time with one hand, on a B737, also, not so much on a B777 or B787. I would doubt that anyone used two hands to cut the fuel at screen height. Note, there was a B744 that lost one engine in cruise when a clip board fell off the coaming. Didn't happen twice, and it only happened to one engine.
Yes indeed, the moment they pulled the gear lever, as we see the gear begin the retraction process, and then suddenly stop. Almost as if they suddenly lost power.
We can see the landing gear retraction process begin. We see the bogies tilted in the second video. We can hear the RAT. We can see the RAT. We can see the flaps extended in the video and at the crash site. There isn't actually a single piece of evidence the flaps were raised, it's just a conclusion people jumped too before evidence began to emerge. The crazy thing is, when the report comes out and there is no mention of flaps none of the people who have been pushing the flap theory will self reflect or learn anything. They'll think those of us who didn't buy into it were just lucky, rather than it being down to use of fairly simple critical thinking. Neila83 is correct, the gear tilt pre retraction is rear wheels low, and at the commencement of the selection of the retraction cycle (generally), There is enough in the way of anomalies here to end up with regulatory action, and airlines themselves should/will be starting to pore over their systems and decide if they are comfortable with the airworthiness of the aircraft at this moment. A latent single point of failure is not a comfortable place to be. Inhibiting TCMA might be a good interim option, that system could have been negated by having the ATR ARM switches....(Both)... ARM deferred to the before takeoff checks. The EAFR recovery should result in action within the next 24-48 hours. Boeing needs to be getting their tiger teams warmed up, they can ill afford to have a latent system fault discovered that is not immediately responded to, and the general corporate response of "blame the pilots" is not likely to win any future orders. I think we are about to have some really busy days for the OEM. Not sure that Neila83 is that far off the mark at all. |
TURIN
2025-06-13T23:49:00 permalink Post: 11903714 |
Speaking as a B787 Captain..... There is so much rubbish and stupid suggestion being written here.
This aircraft was airborne for a grand total of 22 seconds, half of which was climbing to no more than 150' aal. - No Flaps? Due to the setup of the ECL it is physically impossible to go down the runway without some sort of take-off flap set. The T/o config warning would have been singing it's head off. Despite assertions to the contrary I have seen no video clear enough to detect a lack of flaps. - RAT out? Almost impossible, I have seen no quality footage that definitively witnesses the RAT being out. Those who think they car hear a RAT type noise might be listening to a motorcycle passing or similar. It takes a triple hydraulic failure or a double engine failure to trigger RAT deploment. They happily went through V1 without a hint of rejected take off so as they rotated the aircraft was serviceable. These are big engines, they take a long time to wind down when you shut them down. I have never tried it however engine failure detection takes 30s or for the aircraft to react and they were not even airborne that long. - Flaps up instead of gear? The B787 flaps are slow both in and out. Given that the 'Positive rate' call is not made the second the wheels leave the ground, a mis-selection of flaps up would not cause any loss of lift for at least 20 seconds, by which time they had already crashed. I believe the gear remained down not because of mis-selection but because of a major distraction on rotate. Discounting the impossible, two hypotheses remain: 1. Invalid derate set through incorrect cross-checking. Trundling down the runway takes very little power to reach Vr. It is only when you rotate that you create more drag and discover that you do not have sufficient thrust vs. drag to sustain a climb. Or.... 2. Put 200' as the altitude target in the FCU. Immediate ALT capture and all the power comes off. PF is still hand flying trying to increase pitch but is already way behind the aircraft. It could be after this that Boeing are forced to review the B787 practice of exploring the very edges of the performance envelope. Even though these are big engines with plenty of inertia, when you select engine shut off they spool down very quickly if on load. IE, The generators, two per engine and hydraulic pumps, etc, being driven by the (relatively) small mass of the N2 rotor will drag the speed down very quickly, the gennies will trip offine in seconds, the pumps will quickly reduce flow and pressure. As for what went wrong. If the engines have stopped working there has to be a common failure mode, fuel is one but as has been said, no other aircraft has had a problem, as far as we know. FOD? It would have to be something major to shut down two GeNX engines and there would be debris all over the runway, we would know by now. I have no idea if the RAT has deployed, I can't see it in the video and the noise could be something else. We shall see. There is compelling evidence that flaps are set correctly and not retracted inadvertently. I await further evidence. Edit to add. LAE 40 years, type rated on 737 to 787 with lots of others in between. 2 users liked this post. |
lighttwin2
2025-06-16T08:51:00 permalink Post: 11903752 |
If TCMA cut fuel flow while still on the runway the aircraft would have been decelerating from the moment it lifted off, which is not what the ADS-B data indicates. The kinetic energy in the rotating parts of the engine wouldn't add much speed to the aircraft as the engines run down with no more energy being added via fuel.
In no particular order, here are some more thoughts on TCMA having caught up on the thread: If you cut the fuel from two big engines at take-off power, there must be some delay before n2 decays below the threshold for generation (below idle n2), the generators disconnect and RAT deploys. GEnx have relatively long spool up/down times as the fan is so large (and would be exposed to 170+kts of ram air). Perhaps someone has a view on how long this would be, but I imagine it could easily be 10s or more between fuel cut off and RAT deployment. On AI171 the RAT appears to be already deployed at the beginning of the bystander video. That starts c. 13s before impact and around 17s after rotation. This does not prove anything except that the supposed shut down must have happened very close to rotation and could have happened just before rotation while the a/c was on the ground. As a thought experiment, imagine if ANA985 in 2019 had decided to go around. The a/c rotates and is ~50 ft above the runway, suddenly both engines spooling down, very little runway left to land on and no reverse thrust available. I am struck by how similar this scenario is to AI171. This theory would require there to have been unexpected thrust lever movement in the moments before rotation - but plausibly one pilot moving to reject, followed by an overrule or change of heart - or even a simple human error such as the recent BA incident at LGW - could achieve this. This is perhaps more likely that any sensor fault that you would expect to only impact a single engine given the redundancy of systems. Tdracer writes that a key requirement of TCMA is to identify an engine runaway in the event of an RTO, in order to allow the a/c to stop on the runway. This will have been tested extensively - it is a big leap to imagine a false activation could be triggered. It did happen on ANA985 but through a very unusual set of inputs including application of reverse (albeit this latter point may not be relevant if TCMA logic does not distinguish between the reverser being deployed or not). Incidentally there is an assumption the TCMA software version in place on the ANA flight had already been patched and fixed on AI171. That probably is the case but I am not sure it is a known fact. In summary I remain baffled by this tragic accident. I have not yet read anything that explicitly rules out TCMA activation and it remains a possibility due to the vanishingly small number of factors that could shut down two engines at apparently the exact same moment when they have fully redundant systems. Fuel contamination, for example, has typically impacted each engine a few minutes (at least) apart. I am also cautious (as others have pointed out) of a form of confirmation bias about Boeing software systems with four-letter acronyms. In my mind the cause could equally well be something completely different to anything suggested on this thread, that will only become clear with more evidence. All of the above also incorporates a number of theories, i.e. that there was an engine shutdown - that are not conclusively known. Thank you to the mods for an excellent job. 1 user liked this post. |
syseng68k
2025-06-16T23:54:00 permalink Post: 11903876 |
DIBO:
That was a partial answer, but still too many variables. Not nitpicking , but if you are trying to trace the source of a possible engine shutdown, you first need to list all the functions that have authority to do that, at source. Then generate a diagram showing all the steps along the path from those sources to the shutdown point. Truth is, we just don't have enough data to do that. 4 users liked this post. |
ignorantAndroid
2025-06-17T04:46:00 permalink Post: 11903963 |
I'm honestly mystified by the obsession with TCMA. The FADECs control almost every aspect of the engines, so there must be numerous ways they could cause a failure or uncommanded shutdown. So, even if we assume that the engines failed due to faults in the FADECs, why assume that TCMA would be involved? Surely it's more logical to simply posit that some unspecified bug in the FADEC software caused the failure. That bug
could
be related to TCMA, but it could just as easily involve any one of the dozens of other subroutines that likely exist.
Various posters seem to assume that all it takes is an incorrect air/ground signal, and the engines would shut down. But in fact it would also require the FADECs to read the thrust levers as being at or near idle... AND the engines failing to respond to closure of the fuel metering valve. I've read the entirety of both threads, and I haven't seen anyone even attempt to explain how a malfunction within the airframe could cause both of those things to occur on both engines (or even one engine!). 9 users liked this post. |
Lead Balloon
2025-06-17T05:22:00 permalink Post: 11903979 |
I'm honestly mystified by the obsession with TCMA. The FADECs control almost every aspect of the engines, so there must be numerous ways they could cause a failure or uncommanded shutdown. So, even if we assume that the engines failed due to faults in the FADECs, why assume that TCMA would be involved? Surely it's more logical to simply posit that some unspecified bug in the FADEC software caused the failure. That bug
could
be related to TCMA, but it could just as easily involve any one of the dozens of other subroutines that likely exist.
Various posters seem to assume that all it takes is an incorrect air/ground signal, and the engines would shut down. But in fact it would also require the FADECs to read the thrust levers as being at or near idle... AND the engines failing to respond to closure of the fuel metering valve. I've read the entirety of both threads, and I haven't seen anyone even attempt to explain how a malfunction within the airframe could cause both of those things to occur on both engines (or even one engine!). My recollection may be inaccurate, but wasn't there something in the software for 787 generator control units that would cause generator shut down if the aircraft was 'powered up' for a continuous 248 days? Same software, so all 4 generators would shut down. Is my recollection inaccurate? What we do know, for sure, is that the TCMAs have the same 'authority' and effect as the fuel cut-off switches. The difference is that the crew control the latter. 4 users liked this post. |
OldnGrounded
2025-06-17T13:44:00 permalink Post: 11904315 |
I'm honestly mystified by the obsession with TCMA. The FADECs control almost every aspect of the engines, so there must be numerous ways they could cause a failure or uncommanded shutdown. So, even if we assume that the engines failed due to faults in the FADECs, why assume that TCMA would be involved?
I think those of us who are persistently trying to learn the details of the sensor inputs to and logic of TCMA (I prefer that characterization to "obsessed with") understand quite well the points you make here — at least those of us whose interest survives in this new thread. However, I at least, and I believe others as well, have also come to the tentative conclusions that (a) the accident aircraft had engines providing little to no useful thrust from nearly the first moments after rotation, and (b) the only possible reasons for that which have been considered here so far involve the sudden and approximately simultaneous shutdown of those engines, most likely by interruption of fuel flow (because that's one of the very few things we know that can do that without producing big bangs, flames and smoke, etc.).
Surely it's more logical to simply posit that some unspecified bug in the FADEC software caused the failure. That bug
could
be related to TCMA, but it could just as easily involve any one of the dozens of other subroutines that likely exist.
Various posters seem to assume that all it takes is an incorrect air/ground signal, and the engines would shut down.
But in fact it would also require the FADECs to read the thrust levers as being at or near idle... AND the engines failing to respond to closure of the fuel metering valve.
I've read the entirety of both threads, and I haven't seen anyone even attempt to explain how a malfunction within the airframe could cause both of those things to occur on both engines (or even one engine!).
Last edited by OldnGrounded; 17th Jun 2025 at 13:46 . Reason: Formatting 5 users liked this post. |
JRBarrett
2025-06-17T13:50:00 permalink Post: 11904318 |
Various posters seem to assume that all it takes is an incorrect air/ground signal, and the engines would shut down. But in fact it would also require the FADECs to read the thrust levers as being at or near idle... AND the engines failing to respond to closure of the fuel metering valve. I've read the entirety of both threads, and I haven't seen anyone even attempt to explain how a malfunction within the airframe could cause both of those things to occur on both engines (or even one engine!).
One day upon returning from a flight, the crew pulled both power levers to cutoff. The right engine shutdown immediately as expected, but the left engine kept running. By the time we in maintenance got out to the airplane, the engine finally shutdown by itself. Troubleshooting found the cause of the problem. The cutoff position of the power lever closed a micro switch that sent a ground to the FADEC. That ground went through two discrete wires. One went directly to one input on the FADEC. The other went through a squat switch on the main gear leg to a second input on the FADEC. The engine would only shutdown immediately if both inputs went to ground simultaneously. If only one input went to ground, the FADEC would delay shutdown for 30 seconds. This was to protect against an inadvertent movement of the power lever to the cutoff position in flight causing an immediate shutdown. The squat switch on the left gear leg had failed in the open position, causing the problem. I am wondering if more modern FADEC engines have similar protections against immediate shutdown in the air? I can see why the designers of the Hawker implemented the system the way they did, because the shutdown command was integral to the power lever, and it potentially could be pulled to the cutoff position in flight by an inadvertent release of the locking mechanism that would normally prevent it from going past the idle stop, whereas modern FADEC engines like found on the 787 have a discrete locking switch. But, if a similar protection against immediate shutdown does exist in the 787, would the engines keep running for a period of time (in the air) even if the fuel control switch was accidentally or deliberately moved to \x93off\x94? 4 users liked this post. |
Musician
2025-06-18T04:34:00 permalink Post: 11904895 |
![]() FR24 did do that raw ADS-B data comparison. Remember the GPS position and barometric altitude are sent by the aircraft itself. The altitude is sent in 25 ft intervals, so a shallow curve that is smooth in reality looks janky in the data, due to the rounding of the numbers. From https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/f...rom-ahmedabad/ :
We’ve taken data from AI171 departures for the month prior to the accident flight—including two previous operations by VT-ANB—and overlaid their departure paths on the data from AI171 on 12 June. The accident flight is in red, while all other flights are the blue paths. The data shown here is the uncalibrated barometric altitude, so the data is not above ground level, but it is consistent to itself.
![]() Obviously the altitudes are all uncorrected for barometric pressure, which would've varied with the weather on that day; you kind of have to mentally shift the lines vertically downward. Now I looked for, but couldn't find, the post in the old thread where the rotation was triangulated\xb9, but I remember that it was near the turnoff to the high-speed taxiway, so a few seconds ahead of this ADS-B capture. We only have the video to show us what occurred then. That means the ADS-B data doesn't really tell us whether the first few seconds of the climb were normal or not. When we compare the red line to the blue lines, the data tells us the climb rate had already decayed significantly before the accident aircraft passed over the end of the runway, because the red flight path is much more shallow than the blue flight paths. Please correct me if I'm wrong: to my eye, the data alone does not show that the engines must have failed after rotation, because the data does not demonstrate a normal climb rate. But likewise, the engines can't have failed much before rotation:
This aircraft has got airborne well within the requirements of FAR 25 under which it was certified. It has over 1250m ahead of it passing around 35' based on the video from behind, so the FMC data was not incorrect, the thrust up until after TO was not incorrect, and the CG is not out of range, the time to rotate is within expected range, and the attitude at liftoff is not excessive, the plane is not heavier than expected.
----- \xb9 I found one of them, anyway. The reference is the CCTV video:
You can triangulate the camera location using the aircraft holding short for takeoff and the road sign. Then draw a line from there just to the right of the instrumentation building and you'll find the aircraft rotated with about 4000 feet of runway remaining (11000+ runway length).
Last edited by Musician; 18th Jun 2025 at 17:43 . Reason: footnote 1 6 users liked this post. |