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directsosij
2025-06-13T20:45:00 permalink Post: 11900880 |
The recordings are simply of too low quality to draw any conclusions from.
If it was dual engine failure shortly after rotation, that is very bad luck and I doubt any crew could recover from something like that. I could speculate further but I think it\x92s just too hard to say without better quality footage or FDR data. |
bobbytables
2025-06-13T20:48:00 permalink Post: 11900883 |
The recordings are simply of too low quality to draw any conclusions from.
If it was dual engine failure shortly after rotation, that is very bad luck and I doubt any crew could recover from something like that. I could speculate further but I think it\x92s just too hard to say without better quality footage or FDR data. |
bille1319
2025-06-13T21:56:00 permalink Post: 11900953 |
The recordings are simply of too low quality to draw any conclusions from.
If it was dual engine failure shortly after rotation, that is very bad luck and I doubt any crew could recover from something like that. I could speculate further but I think it\x92s just too hard to say without better quality footage or FDR data. Reports say that one of the black boxes have been recovered and the search continues for the other one. Apparently the B787 flight recorders log voice as well as data so only one is suffice if not damaged. |
DaveReidUK
2025-06-13T22:07:00 permalink Post: 11900960 |
1 user liked this post. |
Capn Bloggs
2025-06-14T00:55:00 permalink Post: 11901046 |
@FDR,
you made a comment earlier re the gear sequencing. It appears that you were referring to the 787-9 (doors then tilt). The 787-8 is different, according to
this post
and this YT video:
In it, the -8 tilts the bogies then opens the doors. 1 user liked this post. |
fdr
2025-06-14T01:17:00 permalink Post: 11901056 |
@FDR,
you made a comment earlier re the gear sequencing. It appears that you were referring to the 787-9 (doors then tilt). The 787-8 is different, according to
this post
and this YT video:
https://youtu.be/9R-Netu9m8A In it, the -8 tilts the bogies then opens the doors. 2 users liked this post. |
Calldepartures
2025-06-14T02:17:00 permalink Post: 11901082 |
YMML EK?
Speaking of invalid derate, I sort of recall reading about an incident with a very heavy aircraft and some kind of mistake or fault (or maybe both?) leading to insufficient takeoff thrust on a hot day. Fortunately the crew was able to stabilise the aircraft and return safely to the airport, but unfortunately I don't remember any more details, and so finding it has been difficult.
Might that incident shed any light on this one, especially since that crew was able to recover? Are you thinking of the EK A340 that departed with a 100 ton descepancy entered in the box resulting in incorrect thrust derate and under cooked V speeds? That aircraft was saved by the flight crew that fire walled the thrust leavers with about 600M remaining. Tail strike and destroyed the LOC antenta, but was able to get Airbourne then return for landing at YMML. Is this a possibility? 100 ton gross error, resulting in incorrect thrust, speeds and flap setting? Pilot mistakes lack of thrust for partial engine failure? The confusion and startle factor as the aircraft is rotating with a surprising lack of thrust and the runway end fast approaching may account for the gear not being selected up. If there were a gross error in the weight entered in the FMC, no takeoff config warning. 40 degrees C, flaps 5 instead of flaps 15 or similar? Hopefully some initial data from the FDR may be a pretty good indication. 1 user liked this post. |
Toruk Macto
2025-06-14T02:39:00 permalink Post: 11901091 |
Are you thinking of the EK A340 that departed with a 100 ton descepancy entered in the box resulting in incorrect thrust derate and under cooked V speeds? That aircraft was saved by the flight crew that fire walled the thrust leavers with about 600M remaining. Tail strike and destroyed the LOC antenta, but was able to get Airbourne then return for landing at YMML. Is this a possibility? 100 ton gross error, resulting in incorrect thrust, speeds and flap setting? Pilot mistakes lack of thrust for partial engine failure? The confusion and startle factor as the aircraft is rotating with a surprising lack of thrust and the runway end fast approaching may account for the gear not being selected up. If there were a gross error in the weight entered in the FMC, no takeoff config warning. 40 degrees C, flaps 5 instead of flaps 15 or similar? Hopefully some initial data from the FDR may be a pretty good indication.
If RAT out ??? That tells a lot . Not long to wait now ? condolences to family\x92s and loved ones ! Last edited by Toruk Macto; 14th Jun 2025 at 04:30 . |
FullWings
2025-06-14T07:18:00 permalink Post: 11901188 |
A summary of the more certain things we know about the accident so far:
The takeoff run was from the full length and appeared normal, even after comparing with the same flight on previous days. This very much reduces the likelihood of it being a performance issue, e.g. wrong flaps, derate, ZFW/TOW, etc. Shortly after takeoff, the gear started retracting but stopped in an early intermediate position. At the same time the aircraft climb rate dropped off, then it started a shallow descent. This is consistent with a loss of electrical power causing a loss of hydraulic pressure and total engine thrust from both engines reducing below that generated by one engine at the takeoff setting. The position reporting also went offline at that moment, indicating that it was likely load shed due to an electrical malfunction. What exactly caused the engine/electrical issues remains speculative. An action slip mistaking flaps for gear seems much less likely as due to the above, the correct selection was probably made. From the videos of the last moments, there is strong evidence that the RAT was deployed, which has a very short list of possible triggers. The sole eye witness from inside describes power issues which lends credence. Taken together, it seems that there was an event (or events) shortly after rotation that compromised both engines and the electrical system. There is no evidence yet of birdstrikes and continued engine operation *should* not be affected by the aircraft electrical system as they are independently/internally powered, so logic would have the engines failing first leading to a cascade of other problems. Something that affects all engines pretty much simultaneously is a rare beast but it has happened in the past; outside of a deliberate selection of the fuel and/or fire switches for both power plants there is fuel contamination, FOD and not much else. Its seems at least one FDR has been recovered so depending on where they take it for read-out, we should get some initial facts fairly shortly. 14 users liked this post. |
Smooth Airperator
2025-06-14T08:30:00 permalink Post: 11901251 |
A summary of the more certain things we know about the accident so far:
The takeoff run was from the full length and appeared normal, even after comparing with the same flight on previous days. This very much reduces the likelihood of it being a performance issue, e.g. wrong flaps, derate, ZFW/TOW, etc. Shortly after takeoff, the gear started retracting but stopped in an early intermediate position. At the same time the aircraft climb rate dropped off, then it started a shallow descent. This is consistent with a loss of electrical power causing a loss of hydraulic pressure and total engine thrust from both engines reducing below that generated by one engine at the takeoff setting. The position reporting also went offline at that moment, indicating that it was likely load shed due to an electrical malfunction. What exactly caused the engine/electrical issues remains speculative. An action slip mistaking flaps for gear seems much less likely as due to the above, the correct selection was probably made. From the videos of the last moments, there is strong evidence that the RAT was deployed, which has a very short list of possible triggers. The sole eye witness from inside describes power issues which lends credence. Taken together, it seems that there was an event (or events) shortly after rotation that compromised both engines and the electrical system. There is no evidence yet of birdstrikes and continued engine operation *should* not be affected by the aircraft electrical system as they are independently/internally powered, so logic would have the engines failing first leading to a cascade of other problems. Something that affects all engines pretty much simultaneously is a rare beast but it has happened in the past; outside of a deliberate selection of the fuel and/or fire switches for both power plants there is fuel contamination, FOD and not much else. Its seems at least one FDR has been recovered so depending on where they take it for read-out, we should get some initial facts fairly shortly. This indeed is the best summary till now 3 users liked this post. |
RetiredBA/BY
2025-06-14T09:06:00 permalink Post: 11901283 |
IF, repeat IF, such a system was installed on that 787 it MIGHT have revealed a thrust problem before V1. ( and prevented the TUI BRS incident as well as EK at Melbourne) So, after a lot of thought, an unexplained loss of thrust on BOTH engines must be in the frame. But why? What is common to BOTH except the autothrottle system, driving the thrust levers. Even then it is possible to manually firewall the thrust levers, at least one could on the 73,75, and 76. So, a real mystery. I will await the Investigatirs conclusion now they have the FDR. Last edited by RetiredBA/BY; 14th Jun 2025 at 13:27 . |
FL370 Officeboy
2025-06-14T09:11:00 permalink Post: 11901290 |
Yes, we did acceleration checks, time to 100 knots, on the Valiant and, I believe, the Victor in the RAF. As well as brake drag, this proved engine performance was correct. I was surprised this was not done when I moved to civil jets. Many years ago I proposed a system called TOPIS. Take Off Performance Indicator System. Basically a bug driven around the ASI to show required and achieved speed.
IF, repeat IF, such a system was installed on that 787 it MIGHT have revealed a thrust problem before V1. ( and prevented the TUI BRS incident ) So, after a lot of thought, an unexplained loss of thrust on BOTH engines must be in the frame. But why? What is common to BOTH except the autothrottle system, driving the thrust levers. Even then it is possible to manually firewall the thrust levers, at least one could on the 73,75, and 76. So, a real mystery. I will await the Investigatirs conclusion now they have the FDR. |
xetroV
2025-06-14T12:07:00 permalink Post: 11901420 |
Or he may have heard the RAT spooling up. Valuable as a witness account may be, we’ll have to wait for FDR and CVR data and/or wreckage analysis before drawing conclusions.
2 users liked this post. |
VR-HFX
2025-06-14T12:48:00 permalink Post: 11901454 |
I am sure the FDR will be primary in determining the cause of this terrible accident. I will await the findings like we all should. In the meantime I sincerely hope it leads to far greater research into the the interaction between humans and the automatics in modern aircraft, specifically the reaction of auto throttle systems to false or misleading inputs into flight control panels. The Asiana 777 crash in SFO really got me going on this. Although this was in a landing scenario, it showed how lack of familiarity with the 777 FLCHG system compared to the Airbus and obvious fatigue, can cause grief. At its heart it was related to interaction between pilots and systems. My point is that MCP input errors such as incomplete or false inputs into altitude targets could and has led to early VNAV capture and subsequent inadvertent wind downs of power that can go unnoticed in high workload situations until it is almost too late. I have substantial time on 3 different Boeing types, but not the 787.
Last edited by VR-HFX; 14th Jun 2025 at 23:32 . |
DaveReidUK
2025-06-14T13:53:00 permalink Post: 11901507 |
But I would fully expect some findings from the FDR and CVR analyses within the next few days, given the high profile of the accident and the fact that operators of 1000-odd 787s are waiting anxiously in case there turns out to be some previously undiscovered failure mode that could affect their fleets (though that's highly unlikely IMHO); 2 users liked this post. |
tumtiddle
2025-06-14T14:59:00 permalink Post: 11901551 |
https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/i...-b2770031.html
latest update here says second black box found. |
DaveReidUK
2025-06-14T15:14:00 permalink Post: 11901563 |
Yes, the media (not only in the quoted article) are still having trouble with the concept that the 787 doesn't have a separate CVR and FDR.
2 users liked this post. |
auldlassie
2025-06-14T15:18:00 permalink Post: 11901569 |
re second black box found
yes, I do read all the posts in any thread from the start and noted that it is basically just a dupe in this case, but many posters do not seem to do so and even just a little upthread (and also in lots on news media even currently) it has again been mentioned that only one was reported found, as if that would be a disavantage. Just wanted to add it to the thread clearly, for those of us who read all posts! 3 users liked this post. |
DaveReidUK
2025-06-14T17:07:00 permalink Post: 11901665 |
So get the arguments in quick as we'll probably know definitively within a couple of days. |
appruser
2025-06-14T18:11:00 permalink Post: 11901703 |
Good point. In the survivor's narrative, the sequence is: 5-10s after takeoff -> plane seemed stuck in the air -> green & white light came on -> they "gave race for more takeoff" (revved up) -> entered straight into (hostel).
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