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appruser
July 16, 2025, 01:55:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923383 |
Since the preliminary report neglected including when the RAT deployment occurred, I've tried to estimate it based on the picture they did include:
![]() Baro altitude should be around 150ft; using the public cctv video, I estimate this picture was taken between 4-7 seconds after rotation. A wide range, but that was the best estimate I could come up with. Maybe someone else could narrow it down further. 1. ADSB readouts - according to FlightRadar24, the last ADSB transmission was at 71ft AGL. Is that significant given the RAT is seen already deployed at 150ft AGL per the estimate above? At 71ft AGL, the wheels are about 40-50ft off the ground, assuming aircraft attitude is unchanged between there and this image. Is that 1 or 2 seconds after rotation? Does this imply electrical issues? 1a. The timings for ADSB transmissions outlined by MrShed are not in sync with the estimates above - people have talked about a time shift in this thread. I do believe ADSB timestamps are by the receiving station. 2. The preliminary report timings from the EAFR for E2 fuel cutoff switch RUN -> CUTOFF to the RAT supplying hydraulic power disagree with the lower end of the 4-7s estimate above, and are only consistent if this picture was taken 6-7 seconds after rotation, in my opinion, because of the time (4-5s) it would take to cut off the fuel to E2, spool down to where the VFSGs stop providing AC power, and RAT deployment. 3. The Preliminary Report mentions that the RAT deployed "immediately after" lift-off. Again, I have to wonder, why didn't they provide the RAT deployment timestamp, even relative to rotation? If this is in fact the case, does this imply electrical issues, in line with the last ADSB altitude reading? FR24 article https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/f...rom-ahmedabad/ Last edited by appruser; 16th July 2025 at 01:57 . Reason: Added link to FR24 blog post |
Musician
July 16, 2025, 03:52:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923409 |
This was posted sometime ago, but if anyone would still find it useful to pinpoint the location of the aircraft in the 'new' photo from the Preliminary Report (with RAT deployed) I made a crude attempt which placed it roughly midway between the two sets of identical touchdown zone markings, ~245m (803 ft) from the displaced threshold of RW05.
The deemed position of the CCTV camera is only an estimate, based on visual cues. I'm happy to share my workings, should anyone find it useful to cross-reference this with other data they are working on, but I will avoid cluttering up the thread any further until/unless it becomes relevant. You're looking for the point where the LEFT of the two white lines intersects the runway (ignore the white dots): ![]()
Generally don't think it's a good idea to reply to own posts, but in this case wanted to keep things in context. A few interesting items of note:
1. ADSB readouts - according to FlightRadar24, the last ADSB transmission was at 71ft AGL. Is that significant given the RAT is seen already deployed at 150ft AGL per the estimate above? At 71ft AGL, the wheels are about 40-50ft off the ground, assuming aircraft attitude is unchanged between there and this image. Is that 1 or 2 seconds after rotation? Does this imply electrical issues? 1a. The timings for ADSB transmissions outlined by MrShed are not in sync with the estimates above - people have talked about a time shift in this thread. I do believe ADSB timestamps are by the receiving station. 2. The preliminary report timings from the EAFR for E2 fuel cutoff switch RUN -> CUTOFF to the RAT supplying hydraulic power disagree with the lower end of the 4-7s estimate above, and are only consistent if this picture was taken 6-7 seconds after rotation, in my opinion, because of the time (4-5s) it would take to cut off the fuel to E2, spool down to where the VFSGs stop providing AC power, and RAT deployment. 3. The Preliminary Report mentions that the RAT deployed "immediately after" lift-off. Again, I have to wonder, why didn't they provide the RAT deployment timestamp, even relative to rotation? If this is in fact the case, does this imply electrical issues, in line with the last ADSB altitude reading? FR24 article https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/f...rom-ahmedabad/ Note that the good folks at FR24 did not apply temperature correction to the barometric altitude (they corrected for air pressure and runway elevation); pilots on pprune have done the corrections themselves and arrived at slightly different values, so take those altitude numbers with a grain of salt. Note also that the 787 sends altitude in 25 ft. increments, and I don't know how these are rounded (up, down, nearest). We do not know how long the RAT has been deployed in this photo, we only know it can't have been deployed later. I have learned on this thread that the CUTOFF switch will also cause the VFSGs to disconnect, i.e. the B787 systems will electrically isolate the engine from the power buses before it has spooled down. With a dual failure, this would leave the main buses unpowered in short order, so if all of this is correct, the RAT would have clonked into place very soon after the second engine was cut off. This would not depend on the turbine speed. I personally do not know what items are logged on the flight recorder, but I imagine RAT deployment was not among them. If so, the conditions for its deployment would be logged, but it requires an analytical step to conclude it did, and a preliminary report typically has no analysis at all. Hydraulic pressure to the flight controls is likely logged, so the RAT delivering hydraulic power would be a matter of record. Where is the RadAlt antenna on a 787? Is it in the nose, or further back between the main gears? Last edited by Musician; 16th July 2025 at 04:02 . |
arf23
July 16, 2025, 07:17:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923482 |
does the ORDER in which the switches were operated give us any clues which seat operated them? I would suspect that most pilots always go left switch then right switch, or the right then left each and every time when switching off. We are creatures of habit.
I haven't seen it mentioned it yet that if the stabiliser cut out switches had been left in the wrong position from the previous maintenance, when would EICAS or some other system alert the pilots to this? Would the alert be in close proximity to when the fuel switches were moved? As others have said I think what this episode has revealed is it's too easy to turn off the engines in flight, and that the fuel cut-off switches should only operate when the relevant throttle is at idle? or should have a 10 second pause when no WOW signal and a definite yes to cockpit video, protected so only accident investigators can access it. I can guarantee the third MCAS event wouldn't have happened if the 2 Lion Air MCAS events had been caught on video. It still shocks me after the first Lion Air near miss where the jump seater saved the day that the plane was released to service "nothing found". And as/when found cockpit video would solve the mystery of MH370. |
sorvad
July 16, 2025, 07:35:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923490 |
does the ORDER in which the switches were operated give us any clues which seat operated them? I would suspect that most pilots always go left switch then right switch, or the right then left each and every time when switching off. We are creatures of habit.
I haven't seen it mentioned it yet that if the stabiliser cut out switches had been left in the wrong position from the previous maintenance, when would EICAS or some other system alert the pilots to this? Would the alert be in close proximity to when the fuel switches were moved? As others have said I think what this episode has revealed is it's too easy to turn off the engines in flight, and that the fuel cut-off switches should only operate when the relevant throttle is at idle? or should have a 10 second pause when no WOW signal and a definite yes to cockpit video, protected so only accident investigators can access it. I can guarantee the third MCAS event wouldn't have happened if the 2 Lion Air MCAS events had been caught on video. It still shocks me after the first Lion Air near miss where the jump seater saved the day that the plane was released to service "nothing found". And as/when found cockpit video would solve the mystery of MH370. |
HUD Engineer
July 16, 2025, 07:40:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923491 |
Cutoff Action Slip - Room for improvement?
The preliminary report narrows things down a lot but not as much as it could have done. The report will have been approved by several people. What we see is their consensus. Why did they choose this version?
The report is written to point the finger directly at: (i) the fuel cutoff switches and (ii) either pilot error or pilot mal-intent using them. The report is not written to point the finger at an electrical or mechanical malfunction. We have all role-played in our heads what would have been said in the cockpit in different scenarios. The investigating team already knows. They could have disclosed more of the cockpit conversation, which would be a lot of help to us PPRuNers, but didn't need to. They have let Boeing and the type off the hook and put the blame on the pilots. They have fulfilled the primary purpose of an investigation -- to find out what happened. Interestingly, they did not disclose whether it was error and mal-intent. Perhaps that is because they couldn't answer the grisly question: which is least worst, from the point-of-view of the airline, the victims' families and future customers? Two posters above have quoted AvHerald's report that "... India's media reports that the investigation is NOT focusing on a human action causing the fuel switches to appear in the CUTOFF position, but on a system failure." One interpretation of this is that the investigation knows all about the human action and that the system they refer to is the industry's approach to pilot mental heath and well-being. YYZJim
I have flown B777 and B787 and have operated these switches many times. They are solid secure switches that need a deliberate action to move.
My thoughts, without any weighting or inference are that they were: 1. moved deliberately to shutdown the engines 2. moved unintentionally and ended up shutting down the engines Airlines focus on many safety topics, one of which is action slips. ... The only time that both fuel control switches are switched off together (and not immediately switched back on - Double Engine Failure) is at the end of the flight once parked on stand. This is a very familiar, routine action that pilots do with probably little thought. I have heard of some very odd action slips by some very experienced pilots. In this instance maybe the cue for the action was gear up? It could fit the timeline. I'm assuming that isn't an original idea, so how is it already addressed by Boeing, or the airlines, or pilots? |
1stspotter
July 16, 2025, 09:47:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923586 |
It is both fascinating and unsettling to observe how the media in India consistently refuse to acknowledge that suicide may be the most likely scenario. Key voices—such as former pilots and the airline pilots' union—continue to dismiss the possibility that a pilot could have deliberately moved the fuel control switches to the cutoff position. They rely on factually incorrect arguments and emotional reasoning. For instance, some suggest a potential defect in the Boeing 787’s fuel cutoff switches. However, the FAA's Special Airworthiness Information Bulletin (SAIB) they reference was specifically issued for the Boeing 737, not the 787.
An overview of public statements made by pilots in the media can be found here. https://feitoffake.wordpress.com/202...room-in-india/ |
aox
July 16, 2025, 10:13:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923606 |
It is both fascinating and unsettling to observe how the media in India consistently refuse to acknowledge that suicide may be the most likely scenario. Key voices\x97such as former pilots and the airline pilots' union\x97continue to dismiss the possibility that a pilot could have deliberately moved the fuel control switches to the cutoff position. They rely on factually incorrect arguments and emotional reasoning. For instance, some suggest a potential defect in the Boeing 787\x92s fuel cutoff switches.
|
JustusW
July 16, 2025, 10:23:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923614 |
Attention, Wall of Text incoming. Take appropriate precautions and fasten your seatbelts!
I will say that in reading your earlier post, I came away thinking you were arguing for the unlikelihood of suicide in this case, at least in part because it is unlikely in the world of commercial aviation as a historical fact. If that's not the case, I apologize. But I will add I think other commentary here has fallen into this trap, as discussed in my referenced post.
There have been many accidents where unindicated or even counter indicated action was taken by one or more pilots involved. As discussed in the first and second thread extensively many pilots could report incidents where they observed someone retracting flaps instead of gear. There have been major fatal accidents with pilots shutting down healthy engines instead of surging or burning ones. There's good reason the 787 has extensive takeoff configuration warnings, because we have had accidents and incidents with unsafe configurations taken to takeoff, beyond and sometimes even into a crash. Humans make mistakes. It is the goal of Safety Culture to prevent those mistakes from causing harm.
But TL;DR - I'd posit that the rate of truly experienced mental health issues experienced in pilots is higher than whatever rate almost anyone is thinking.
Around 12% of people globally have a mental health issue at any given time - even being incredibly conservative, the rate in pilots is clearly going to be at least in single whole figure percentages (which is far from rare). Obviously the majority of these issues are not going to be those with severe outcomes, but some will. And almost all mental health issues tend to affect cognitive ability to at least some level. Slowness in action and fatigue are diagnostic criteria for many of the most common mental health conditions for example. Currently 12.6% of pilots meet the medical threshold for depression, with a slight but below average difference between males (12.8%) and females (11.4%), with 4.1% of all pilots experiencing recent suicidal thoughts. https://ehjournal.biomedcentral.com/...940-016-0200-6 It should be noted that the utilized test (PHQ-9) is considered insufficient to assess suicide risk. Depending on scoring these values could be about average, or significantly below average. Based on their wording I would expect the latter, because their methodology does not specify severity.*1 Results of 0-4 points suggest no intervention necessary, 5-9 (classified as mild) simply suggest retaking the test after a few weeks. Research shows that for the general public Major Depressive Episodes have a prevalence of ~5-10%, with the prevalence of minor depression being less studied but significantly higher than major depression. There is also significant symptomatic overlap of mild depression with stress related conditions such as "Burnout" (if you know, please don't, this conversation is already complex enough without bringing that in). Considering the prevalence of stress in the industry I am actually surprised the numbers here are not higher. The lesser delta between males and females could be indicative of just such an issue, meaning that based on the data available the number of pilots actually suffering from depression could be less than even the comparably low number reported here. The actual suicide risk is usually orders of magnitude below even that but not easily covered in this data context due to the test used. Cognitive impact is highly variable depending on the individual, actual symptoms and severity. It would be wrong to assess that 12.6% of pilots are a risk factor from this data. Quite the opposite, in fact. After the Germanwings crash the topic was discussed and has reached the awareness threshold for many. Mild cases usually require little to no intervention beyond raising awareness and helping the brain fix its chemistry through positive reinforcement. This can be as simple as taking PTO, reducing work hours, or focusing on social or physical activities. In the past 10 years these kinds of low impact measures have been made more readily available, most notably during the Covid-19 pandemic and the resulting turmoil. Further political activity has lead to some positive action as well. I already mentioned the recent success of the Pilot Mental Health Campaign getting legislation through Congress for improvements of the outdated FAA guidelines on mental health in an earlier post. Similar efforts are underway globally, be that internal review within regulatory bodies, or political movements.
As a critical care physician (with AVMED background), these last few years we seeing unprecedented rates of self-reported stress, anxiety, depression, and deliberate self-harm. This is being experienced in most western countries (perhaps globally, but I have less direct knowledge of non-western countries). It is absolutely off the scale. In my 35 year career, I have never seen anything like the last 4 years.
Sadly, I am confident this phenomenon will result in more incidents like Germanwings, MH370 and this. This is certainly a challenge for healthcare everywhere, but I do not consider the data available to be majorly applicable in the context of aviation over the already very current research closer to the industry and GA. The positive impact of what has been done and is being done is highly likely to outperform whatever global mechanism is at work here. It's certainly a very important field of study, but based on the data I would still consider the industry and regulators as a global whole to be on a positive path. We can certainly discuss this topic further, but I would not currently see it as likely to be causal in this particular case. Overall I am still not convinced we are looking at an individuals mental health crisis in this case. I have already detailed the massive differences to all known or suspected cases of pilot suicide at least twice. There is no evidence of mental health issues for the Captain or the FO. There is certainly a strong indication for a human factors cause to this accident. And as mentioned above I find the idea of improving the safety of the Fuel Cutoff Switches a worthwhile topic to discuss. No single action, and I see these two switches as a single action just as much as operating both thrust levers, should be able to cause a major accident. I find it perfectly reasonable to require the Throttle Levers be at idle for the Cutoff Switches to work, and in case of an incorrect setting some sort of alert would be appropriate. *EDIT* *1: I missed this in my original readthrough, the cutoff is sensibly set to 10, starting with moderate depression. I'd have to look into the classification scheme but from memory both mild and moderate depression fall into the same category as relevant for the following statements. Last edited by JustusW; 16th July 2025 at 10:37 . |
sabenaboy
July 16, 2025, 10:30:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923618 |
It is both fascinating and unsettling to observe how the media in India consistently refuse to acknowledge that suicide may be the most likely scenario. Key voices\x97such as former pilots and the airline pilots' union\x97continue to dismiss the possibility that a pilot could have deliberately moved the fuel control switches to the cutoff position. They rely on factually incorrect arguments and emotional reasoning. For instance, some suggest a potential defect in the Boeing 787\x92s fuel cutoff switches. However, the FAA's Special Airworthiness Information Bulletin (SAIB) they reference was specifically issued for the Boeing 737, not the 787.
An overview of public statements made by pilots in the media can be found here. https://feitoffake.wordpress.com/202...room-in-india/ |
1stspotter
July 16, 2025, 10:33:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923620 |
Fact is both fuel cutoff switches moved to the cutoff position three seconds after the wheels left the runway. While the speed was 180 knots. Nothing indicates a problem with the thrust of the engines. So explain why one of the pilots , a ghost, an iPad set *both* switches to cutoff just after liftoff while the aircraft had a normal speed and no indications of a problem. Mind there is no issue with those switches. The FAA SAIB was for the Boeing 737 https://feitoffake.wordpress.com/202...787-explained/ There is just one explanation: one of the pilots deliberately set both switches to cutoff. |
Dani
July 16, 2025, 11:09:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923641 |
I would love to explain, but my posts get deleted.
While I fully understand that a normal working fuel cut off switch on a Boeing can not move to cut off by itself, I'm completly certain that it can when the locking mechanism is not properly installed. In such a case, the moving part of the lever could even stand on a "needle point position", meaning it's neither in the on or off position. Smallest movement of the aircraft or a hand can move the lever to on or off. I also observed many pilots in my career holding their hand at the backstop of the thrust levers on the pedestal as PM. Comes from a certain mistrust to the other pilot (mostly captains do that). If this hand falls down by a gust or a bump on the runway, his hand falls down on the pedestal. Exact location of the cut-off switches. If the locking mechanism isn't installed, you don't even feel that you moved it. Dani |
1stspotter
July 16, 2025, 11:10:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923642 |
I wonder if the people who are so adamant that mistaken operation of the wrong control is simply impossible have ever had a windscreen wipe in a car while intending to use an indicator light. And if they have, have some of these occasions happened at higher than average stress moments, such as someone else behaving oddly at a junction.
(Of vehicles with two sets of stalk mounted switches adjacent to the steering wheel, some have lights on the left, and some have lights on the right. This may be, but isn't always, related to whether the home market of the car design drives on the left or the right. British drivers and owners of some Japanese cars may have more experience of both than Europeans only ever driving cars from their home country.) When the fuel needs to be cut because of an engine failure there is a strict procedure before the switch is set to CUTOFF. Both pilots need to confirm the location (left or right) of the engine. No pilot will without consent switch off the fuel. However this is what happened. |
1stspotter
July 16, 2025, 11:19:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923649 |
I would love to explain, but my posts get deleted.
While I fully understand that a normal working fuel cut off switch on a Boeing can not move to cut off by itself, I'm completly certain that it can when the locking mechanism is not properly installed. In such a case, the moving part of the lever could even stand on a "needle point position", meaning it's neither in the on or off position. Smallest movement of the aircraft or a hand can move the lever to on or off. I also observed many pilots in my career holding their hand at the backstop of the thrust levers on the pedestal as PM. Comes from a certain mistrust to the other pilot (mostly captains do that). If this hand falls down by a gust or a bump on the runway, his hand falls down on the pedestal. Exact location of the cut-off switches. If the locking mechanism isn't installed, you don't even feel that you moved it. Dani See https://feitoffake.wordpress.com/202...787-explained/ So your scenario is impossible. |
bongo bongo
July 16, 2025, 12:03:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923681 |
I would love to explain, but my posts get deleted.
While I fully understand that a normal working fuel cut off switch on a Boeing can not move to cut off by itself, I'm completly certain that it can when the locking mechanism is not properly installed. In such a case, the moving part of the lever could even stand on a "needle point position", meaning it's neither in the on or off position. Smallest movement of the aircraft or a hand can move the lever to on or off. I also observed many pilots in my career holding their hand at the backstop of the thrust levers on the pedestal as PM. Comes from a certain mistrust to the other pilot (mostly captains do that). If this hand falls down by a gust or a bump on the runway, his hand falls down on the pedestal. Exact location of the cut-off switches. If the locking mechanism isn't installed, you don't even feel that you moved it. Dani |
Lonewolf_50
July 16, 2025, 12:47:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923713 |
I'll offer a guess as to why...later.
I'm completly certain that it can when the locking mechanism is not properly installed.
In such a case, the moving part of the lever could even stand on a "needle point position", meaning it's neither in the on or off position. Smallest movement of the aircraft or a hand can move the lever to on or off.
I also observed many pilots in my career holding their hand at the backstop of the thrust levers on the pedestal as PM. Comes from a certain mistrust to the other pilot (mostly captains do that). If this hand falls down by a gust or a bump on the runway, his hand falls down on the pedestal. Exact location of the cut-off switches. If the locking mechanism isn't installed, you don't even feel that you moved it. Has anyone demonstrated to you something like "watch this, Dani: if I pull the switch up and get it to hang on the little lock/cam, the engine will still start" ... in the sim or in the aircraft. I'd be interested to read of your experiences with that switch and that non-standard positioning of it that you describe. Beyond that, did you bother to look at the position of the fuel control switches that were in the preliminary report? They were found in the RUN position. See page ten of the preliminary report. Neither of them was cocked off, as in the picture of a misaligned switch from a 737 that you referred to.
You mean just because it never has happened, it's impossible? What a strange argument.
If you look closely at the picture in post no 262 Preliminary Air India crash report published I see a perfect example of a wrongly installed locking mechanism.
How on earth do you think this argument is unthinkable, when there are even safety bulletins and mandatory maintenance orders about this very problem?
I'm on neighter side. That's why facts are more important for me than for many others.
You have established no basis for why you believe that the switches on this 787 were incorrectly installed, given that
As to post deletions: as with some of mine being deleted, we both seem to get involved in the running rodent machine despite any intentions to avoid it. For DaveReidUK Your post is, at best, disingenuous. (But thank you for posting an excerpt from the bulletin ![]() The error was found on a 737, and the competent authority issued that alert having recognized that similar switches might have similar problems - they used the word potentia l - not because switches on all of those other models had been found to have that problem. From your subsequent post:
..to be replaced if found defective,
Given that this is the year 2025, (and the maintenance actions mentioned in the preliminary report) 1spotter's point on the "red herring" is a bit stronger than you allow. Please go back and read page 6 of the prelim report, top half. Something else to think upon: how many 737s does Air India operate?
As of June 2025, Air India operates a fleet of 190 aircraft, both narrowbody and widebody aircraft with a fleet composed of
Airbus A319
,
A320
,
A320neo
,
A321
,
A321neo
,
A350
as well as the
Boeing 777
and
Boeing 787
.
For the moment I don't think that it does, however, it might. The investigators have a variety of other rocks to turn over and see what crawls out from under them. They may find evidence of various maintenance issues that have an impact on this accident. As of today, though, such information has not been released (but I will offer you a guess that all of that is in the process of being collected and analyzed, even now, as a part of their investigation). Full disclosure: I don't fly Boeings, I do not work for Boeing, I have no shares in Boeing stock, and I am still slightly pissed at Boeing for the MCAS screw up on the 737-MAX. Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 16th July 2025 at 13:12 . |
za9ra22
July 16, 2025, 13:17:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923729 |
It is both fascinating and unsettling to observe how the media in India consistently refuse to acknowledge that suicide may be the most likely scenario. Key voices\x97such as former pilots and the airline pilots' union\x97continue to dismiss the possibility that a pilot could have deliberately moved the fuel control switches to the cutoff position. They rely on factually incorrect arguments and emotional reasoning. For instance, some suggest a potential defect in the Boeing 787\x92s fuel cutoff switches. However, the FAA's Special Airworthiness Information Bulletin (SAIB) they reference was specifically issued for the Boeing 737, not the 787.
An overview of public statements made by pilots in the media can be found here. https://feitoffake.wordpress.com/202...room-in-india/ There's a genuine problem with understanding what 'evidence' means, and both sides seem to be suffering it. |
Dimitris
July 16, 2025, 14:26:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923766 |
Not trying to be part of the on-going hamster wheel. But the discussions regarding the odds of this being pilot suicide based on historical rates are missing a very critical statistical point.
Let's just assume that rate of commercial airliner crashes due to pilot suicide is 1 in 100 million departures. Simply put, that means that if you get on a commercial aircraft to fly from point A to point B, the historical odds are that there is a 1 in 100 million chance that your flight will crash due to an intentional suicidal pilot act. However, the historical odds say that the odds of your flight crashing for any reason are several million to one. Since the turn of the century, the fatal cash rate has been something around 1 in 5 million departures. Now, we know for a fact that the Air India 787 crashed - hence the probability of a crash for this particular flight is not 1 in 5 million - it's ONE! That means the historical odds of this crash being due to an intentional act by a pilot (i.e. suicide) is ~5%, not one in 100 million (obviously a rough number, but you get the idea). Oh, another to consider with regard to a pilot having a monumental 'brain fart'. We don't know where the pilot's mind was at during the takeoff. Was he focused on the task at hand, or was he preoccupied with the health of his father and what he was going to do about it. About 35 years ago, my one-time fianc\xe9 left me for another guy. I was devastated. Some of my friends were worried that I might attempt suicide, but that never entered my mind. However, I was horribly distracted and my work performance suffered greatly since my mind was not on the tasks at hand. I could have easily done something really stupid that could have endangered my life - such as missing a stop sign while driving or running a red light because I wasn't paying attention.
I have to say I'm really impressed with your work. It's no co-incidence that this image has been used noting that the rat is deployed which means the generators are already offline,
I'm equally impressed by how quickly No1 engine recovered. I think it's safe to say that this situation is not recoverable, but a truly impressive piece of engineering all the same. Regardless of what happened and why regarding the switches going to off, there is now a documented failure mode of the system that needs mitigation (?): Fuel switches off at less than XXX ft lead to unrecoverable AC. If fuel cut off during take off leads to unrecoverable at less than XXX ft or risk of error i.e. switching one vs the other, then inhibit them. I'm putting it too simplistically, but if after V1 the AC is GO and there is a range of altitude/speed that engines loss leads to unrecoverable some mitigation is needed. In the meantime maybe ban jump seating during such phases of flight regardless of it is relevant to this accident. If there is intention for something like that, less people with access reduces the possibility of happening. Too much discussion I think for the 10s to bring the switches back to on.... Pilots are not super humans. By that time the situation the AC was at must have been very clear, some hands shaking is expected... I wonder if based on the data from the flight, sim-runs have been made to see if the situation would be more survivable had the AC 'slammed' itself back to the runway. --> Any estimation of how many seconds in 'off' would not change the end result? If it is 2-3 seconds, its better to stop discussing if 10s response by pilots was ok or not. The 'why' and 'preventive' of going to 'off' is a lot more important. Edit: Have been reading tdracer posts for many many years now. Thank you! Last edited by Dimitris; 16th July 2025 at 14:31 . Reason: avoid post being regarded as 'dry' or confrontational to exceptional professionals on this forum |
GarageYears
July 16, 2025, 14:36:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923772 |
SLF here with engineering background.
Regardless of what happened and why regarding the switches going to off, there is now a documented failure mode of the system that needs mitigation (?): Fuel switches off at less than XXX ft lead to unrecoverable AC. If fuel cut off during take off leads to unrecoverable at less than XXX ft or risk of error i.e. switching one vs the other, then inhibit them. I'm putting it too simplistically, but if after V1 the AC is GO and there is a range of altitude/speed that engines loss leads to unrecoverable some mitigation is needed. In the meantime maybe ban jump seating during such phases of flight regardless of it is relevant to this accident. If there is intention for something like that, less people with access reduces the possibility of happening. Too much discussion I think for the 10s to bring the switches back to on.... Pilots are not super humans. By that time the situation the AC was at must have been very clear, some hands shaking is expected... I wonder if based on the data from the flight, sim-runs have been made to see if the situation would be more survivable had the AC 'slammed' itself back to the runway. --> Any estimation of how many seconds in 'off' would not change the end result? If it is 2-3 seconds, its better to stop discussing if 10s response by pilots was ok or not. The 'why' and 'preventive' of going to 'off' is a lot more important. Edit: Have been reading tdracer posts for many many years now. Thank you! - GY |
EXDAC
July 16, 2025, 15:09:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923795 |
The problem here with inhibiting the fuel cutoff is that what happens if you have an engine fire less than your XXX ft? You still need to turn off that engine, right? Now you could say turning off BOTH should be inhibited... what if they are both on fire and there's a nice flat space in front of you?
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gulfstream7
July 16, 2025, 15:32:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923811 |
I see a lot of posts about how rare it is for a pilot to deliberately crash the plane. But a rare event did take place. A plane full of people crashing right after take off is rare. So given that event has already occurred, whatever caused it howsoever unlikely it may be, is very likely the cause of this crash. Now what information do we have. Let's start with preliminary report, all can agree that everything was just fine until the switches "transitioned" to cut-off after rotation and max speed of 180knots. The way report is written is clearly a compromise. They have timestamps of all the events and including pilot conversation. They chose to release time-stamps for some events but didn't for a lot (including the pilot question about the switch and subsequent response). They released enough information to convey that there is no systematic issues/risks to the planes (which is what NTBS, Boeing would push for) but at the same time they worded the report in a way to not directly call out pilot error (deliberate or not). Now coming to that we know about the pilots:
Captain was single and unmarried; his mom died recently; he moved from Delhi to Mumbai to take care of his dad. Captain also reported to have taken a medical leave in not so distant past. So as you can imagine; he went through a lot recently and it's not out of realm of possibility that his mental state would take him to do something like what happened. He had enough experience; he knew the recovery will be very unlikely once the fuel is cut off right after rotation. He was also PM so would have his hands free to move switches.Moreover, the PF was a trainee and probably wouldn't question his captain right away It would also still preserve captain's legacy; (at least what he might think, keep in mind his nephews are also pilots) if it's not clearly a case of deliberately crashing in the mountains or rapid descent (like previous deliberate pilot crashes) and there is enough ambiguity to ascertain beyond reasonable doubt what happened |
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