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avioli
2025-06-13T18:52:00 permalink Post: 11900803 |
Here is another video.
At 0:21 to 0:22, there appears to be an odd yellow flash around the #1 engine. This may of course also be due to the rather bad, filmed-off-a-screen video, but it occurs after liftoff and around a time when gear retraction would be appropriate. Edit: here is another video showing the same scene in slightly better quality. The same flash is visible around 0:46. This does not necessarily mean anything, of course, and it may as well be some reflection of the sun, but it appears to be about at the time a total power loss would have brought the known results. |
xyze
2025-06-13T18:57:00 permalink Post: 11900808 |
In the take off video I think there is a subtle yaw to the right at lift off (the moment it begins being obscured by the building in the foreground). There is then a massive blast of dust on the airfield on the left side of the aircraft as it lifts off. Later video audio suggests the engines were not at full power ( or even operating - just wind noise) and that the RAT was whirring. It also shows the fuselage wheel bogies were tilted forward - so wheels up has commenced - but the gear doors are not open.
Possible sequence: right engine failure at rotation, firewalling of left engine, lift off and positive rate, gear up lever activated, wheels tilt forward, left engine failure, RAT deployed, insufficient hydraulics to Open gear doors to complete gear up sequence, ongoing dual engine failure? 1 user liked this post. |
appruser
2025-06-13T19:02:00 permalink Post: 11900816 |
Although the gear bogie isn\x92t in the initial post-liftoff position, if you can see the retraction mechanism operating in a 787 It first tilts the bogie forward. I\x92d therefore consider that a \x93gear up\x94 switch was activated but the action failed \x97most likely due to hydraulic pressure loss. In the second video (left-side view), I could interpret that gear retraction begins around 24 s and then halts before 27 s, exactly when the aircraft stops climbing.
Just my two cents, from the perspective of an aircraft engineer with a background primarily in Airbus.​​ |
appruser
2025-06-13T19:20:00 permalink Post: 11900831 |
Firstly, I don\x92t think an inadvertent selection of flaps up caused this accident. I think it\x92s a red herring that seemed plausible initially but it is not consistent with the RAT being deployed, and the evidence for the RAT is strong.
To answer your broader question though, how could such an error happen? It happens because us simple humans learn how to do actions to the point where we don\x92t have to think about them anymore. This allows us to effectively automate routine tasks and save our brains for more novel tasks. The problem arises when we trigger the wrong automatic action in response to a cue. You ask for gear up, I know I need to select the gear up, I know where the gear handle is and what it looks and feels like, yet something goes wrong in the wiring of my body and instead, the flap-up automatic action is run. It\x92s run before I have consciously thought about it. Sound far fetched? Well it has happened numerous times. I\x92ve seen someone do exactly that, select the flap instead of the gear, and there are incident reports publicly available. All modern passenger jets have a similar layout of the flap lever and the gear lever with the gear looking like a wheel and the flap looking like a wing, yet this error can still happen. Have you ever gone to put something in the fridge that should\x92ve been put in the cupboard? I\x92d bet that most people have made that weird error at some point in their lives, and yet the fridge doesn\x92t look like the cupboard and they\x92re nowhere near each other. |
Pip_Pip
2025-06-13T19:31:00 permalink Post: 11900839 |
In summary,
Flaps were extended, possibly flaps 5 or 15. Looks like it in the video and clearly shown post crash. Aircraft reached a height of just over 100\x92 AGL (possibly 200\x92 if you compare wingspan to height in videos) RAT was deployed. Seen on videos and heard conclusively. Aircraft rotated at \x91usual\x92 spot. Comparing FR24 data from previous flights over the past week. Aircraft took off at \x91usual\x92 speed. Comparing other flights. FR24 data stopped being sent shortly after take off. Possibly indicating electrical fault. Green and white flashing light reported by survivor. Possibly indicating electrical fault. Gear bogies were at unusual angle indicating Gear selected up and then interrupted. No smoke or flames to indicate bird strike. (Edit - still debate about this in the video above where the aircraft is behind a building) No rudder input to indicate single engine failure. All speculation but hopefully a pretty balanced summary from the thread so far. It would be great if there was more focus now on what might have caused above rather than talking flaps, birds, 625\x92, etc. The most productive responses would be along the lines of:- (1) I too have read all previous posts and agree that your summary reflects the current consensus, (2) I too have read all previous posts and agree your summary reflects the consensus HOWEVER I challenge that consensus because... [ [i]EITHER (a) reference to previous post that merits greater credence, OR (b) new evidence supplied], (3) I too have read all previous posts but I do NOT agree your summary reflects the consensus [explanation required]. It is not necessary for everyone who thinks (1) to say it (although some initial feedback would be useful!). However, if any of the more experienced and informed PPRuNers are thinking either (2) or (3) then it would be instructive to hear that. FWIW, yours strikes me as a reasonable summary of the best consensus I have been able to discern (as of ~30 minutes ago). There are multiple caveats to each line item, but I presume you've deliberately left those out for the sake of readability, so I'll do the same! The only comments I would add are:- - It's a stretch to say the RAT is seen or heard "conclusively". Doubts have been expressed about the video quality and there are dissenting views regarding the audio. If a few more people were able to wade in on the audio point in particular, this could be very beneficial in moving the discussion forward because the presence or otherwise of the RAT is significant to several competing theories. - On the subject of audio, I am surprised there has not been more discussion regarding engine noise. In the primary eye witness video the (alleged) RAT can be heard distinctly, as can the sounds of distant impact. If the engines were working as expected when overflying the camera and then flying directly away from it, do we really not think the engine noise would be more conclusive, i.e. louder (notwithstanding quiet engines and derated takeoffs)? Whichever way readers are leaning in the flaps versus power loss debate, surely these two points are pivotal, and we have actual evidence available to discuss? - Gear bogies: I'm not sure a consensus has yet been reached regarding the angle of the bogies. (I am not personally qualified to comment on this - I am purely saying I don't see a clear consensus just yet among those who are) - Mayday call: I don't recall seeing a confirmed source for the widely reported mayday. Others have brought this up in the thread but nobody appears to be able to confirm one way or the other. If accurate, its contents are informative. Am I right to presume that you have left it out of your summary due to a lack of confirmation? 9 users liked this post. |
Seamless
2025-06-13T19:38:00 permalink Post: 11900843 |
SLF, so probably stupid question: Why don't companys like Airbus or Boeing integrate scales in their planes? Not to make calculation of lift of weight of calculations are wrong? Why don't they integrate systems that hinder you from retracting flaps in the first 20 to 30 seconds after the landing gear lost contact to the ground etc?
What I am trying to say: There are pretty simple logics that could be integrated that would presumably kill many discussions held here. |
go-around flap 15
2025-06-13T20:08:00 permalink Post: 11900858 |
SLF, so probably stupid question: Why don't companys like Airbus or Boeing integrate scales in their planes? Not to make calculation of lift of weight of calculations are wrong? Why don't they integrate systems that hinder you from retracting flaps in the first 20 to 30 seconds after the landing gear lost contact to the ground etc?
What I am trying to say: There are pretty simple logics that could be integrated that would presumably kill many discussions held here. When designing anything you need to account for unintended consequences and the possibilities for that system adversely affecting safety if it were to malfunction. If you introduced a system designed to prevent flap retraction 20 to 30s after liftoff, what if failure in a channel of that system then prevents flap retraction required to achieve a MACG with critical terrain on departure. We could 'why don't they do this / why don't they do that' until eventually we end up with not flying at all. On your point of integrated scales, there is a far easier way to cross check actual aicraft weight with calculated weight: a computer that cross references acceleration data on the takeoff run with known values from lookup tables based on specific environmental conditions and engine thrust settings. If you're not accelerating at a normal rate expected for the calculated thrust and weight a warning can be triggered. This was a recommendation echoed by the AAIB following the incident with a Jet2 aircraft getting airborne at only 70% thrust. I believe Airbus and Boeing are looking into the potential implementation of such a safety system. 2 users liked this post. |
neila83
2025-06-13T20:50:00 permalink Post: 11900886 |
We're all shouting each other down with two main different theories on why the aircraft lost lift so shortly after takeoff.
1) Incorrect flap retraction causing the aircraft to lose lift and unable to recover the energy in time. (Not unheard of and plenty of reports where this has happened - albeit usually not to a crash). 2) Loss of engine thrust backed up two potential pieces of evidence that back up the RAT was deployed (apparent RAT sound, potential RAT seen on low res video). It is impossible to know which of these is the case. Considering this summary of memory items is there the potential for a combination of both theories to have taken place? Inadvertant flap retraction by PNF leading the PF to sense a sink and loss of lift. Pushes the thrust levers forward to the firewall and still the aircraft sinks. PF looking through the HUD and so very much 'outside focused' and doesn't realise that PNF has instead moved the flaps. PF defaults to memory items for loss of thrust on both engines before PNF can realise or communicate to PF what they've done, start switches are cut off which drops the RAT and from that point they're only heading one way. This would satisfy the strongly held belief that the RAT was extended, whilst also following the more likely initial cause of an action slip by PNF starting the sequence, rather than a dual engine failure. As has been said many times as well, the landing gear retraction process appears to start as the bogies tilt, and then suddenly stops. Which rather suggests they did pull the gear lever. Based on the videos and the amount of speed the plane lost in the very brief sequence ovents, I'd say that the plane lost power a lot earlier than it would have in your theory. Last edited by neila83; 13th Jun 2025 at 21:03 . 3 users liked this post. |
YRP
2025-06-13T20:58:00 permalink Post: 11900895 |
SLF, so probably stupid question: Why don't companys like Airbus or Boeing integrate scales in their planes? Not to make calculation of lift of weight of calculations are wrong? Why don't they integrate systems that hinder you from retracting flaps in the first 20 to 30 seconds after the landing gear lost contact to the ground etc?
What I am trying to say: There are pretty simple logics that could be integrated that would presumably kill many discussions held here. Your simple logics can make the situation worse in failure modes. E.g. someone mentioned MCAS, simple simple logic that fixed a minor problem but brought down two airplanes when the sensors failed. Other examples: there was an A340 into Quito (?) a while back that landed hard, breaking the WOW sensors. Interlocks wouldn\x92t let ground spoilers, reversers, etc deploy. Aircraft unable to stop, went off the end with fatalities. Yet those interlocks do save lives in other situations, eg AC DC8 crash in Malton in the 1960s. Simple sounding systems are not nearly as simple as imagined. Design engineers have to work out every conceivable combination of faults/failures and what would happen. Fixing one situation often opens up another one. 6 users liked this post. |
nachtmusak
2025-06-13T21:03:00 permalink Post: 11900901 |
Personally I don't hear much of the engines as the plane moves away from the cameraperson in the phone video, while the sound of impact is clearly discernible. If anyone can hear the engines well enough to tell if there is a significant change in their tone or volume, that would be valuable info, I think. Alternatively whatever increase in noise was heard started before the recording starts. In that case I suppose the "RAT theorists" would say it was the droning of the now-deployed RAT, with the assumption that it would be audible from inside the cabin (things like flap and landing gear actuation certainly are, so that isn't all that far-fetched). On the other hand, the "flap theorists" would probably say it was the crew firewalling the thrust levers in response to the inability to climb, which isn't far-fetched either. Either way we will know soon enough what actions the pilots did or didn't take, since the various flight recorders should be found fairly easily in good condition. |
neila83
2025-06-13T21:31:00 permalink Post: 11900927 |
In the spirit of fairness there is another sensation that can be interpreted as "increased thrust" that a passenger is equally if not more likely to be talking about
: a change in [perceived] engine noise level and/or quality.
Personally I don't hear much of the engines as the plane moves away from the cameraperson in the phone video, while the sound of impact is clearly discernible. If anyone can hear the engines well enough to tell if there is a significant change in their tone or volume, that would be valuable info, I think. Alternatively whatever increase in noise was heard started before the recording starts. In that case I suppose the "RAT theorists" would say it was the droning of the now-deployed RAT, with the assumption that it would be audible from inside the cabin (things like flap and landing gear actuation certainly are, so that isn't all that far-fetched). On the other hand, the "flap theorists" would probably say it was the crew firewalling the thrust levers in response to the inability to climb, which isn't far-fetched either. Either way we will know soon enough what actions the pilots did or didn't take, since the various flight recorders should be found fairly easily in good condition. 1 user liked this post. |
neila83
2025-06-13T21:58:00 permalink Post: 11900955 |
Retracting the flaps would put them at the back of the power curve where drag increases with decreasing speed, causing the speed to reduce further!
The trouble seems to start at the exact moment the gear should have been raised, putting the flaps up, iso the gear, would cause the kind of loss of lift you see in the video. From there on, being at the back of the power curve, only firewalling the thrust levers and extending the flaps again could have saved them. We can see the landing gear retraction process begin. We see the bogies tilted in the second video. We can hear the RAT. We can see the RAT. We can see the flaps extended in the video and at the crash site. There isn't actually a single piece of evidence the flaps were raised, it's just a conclusion people jumped too before evidence began to emerge. The crazy thing is, when the report comes out and there is no mention of flaps none of the people who have been pushing the flap theory will self reflect or learn anything. They'll think those of us who didn't buy into it were just lucky, rather than it being down to use of fairly simple critical thinking. 13 users liked this post. |
Right Way Up
2025-06-13T22:08:00 permalink Post: 11900961 |
Yes indeed, the moment they pulled the gear lever, as we see the gear begin the retraction process, and then suddenly stop. Almost as if they suddenly lost power.
We can see the landing gear retraction process begin. We see the bogies tilted in the second video. We can hear the RAT. We can see the RAT. We can see the flaps extended in the video and at the crash site. There isn't actually a single piece of evidence the flaps were raised, it's just a conclusion people jumped too before evidence began to emerge. The crazy thing is, when the report comes out and there is no mention of flaps none of the people who have been pushing the flap theory will self reflect or learn anything. They'll think those of us who didn't buy into it were just lucky, rather than it being down to use of fairly simple critical thinking. 10 users liked this post. |
fdr
2025-06-13T22:13:00 permalink Post: 11900962 |
At this stage, at least two scenarios seem highly plausible:
1. Technical issue Airliners rely on air/ground logic , which is fundamental to how systems operate. There have been numerous crashes and serious incidents linked to this logic functioning incorrectly. Some engineering tests require the air/ground switch to be set in a particular mode. If it's inadvertently left in engineering mode—or if the system misinterprets the mode—this can cause significant problems.
2. Pilot misselection of fuel control switches to cutoff This is still a very real possibility. If it occurred, the pilot responsible may not have done it consciously—his mindset could have been in a different mode. There’s precedent: an A320 pilot once inadvertently shut down both engines over Paris. Fortunately, the crew managed to restart them. Afterward, the pilot reportedly couldn’t explain his actions. If something similar happened here, then when the pilots realized the engines had stopped producing thrust, pushing the levers forward would have had no effect. It’s easy to overlook that the fuel switches are in the wrong position—they're far from the normal scan pattern. And with the ground rushing up, the view outside would’ve been far more commanding. Speaking personally, when I shut down engines at the end of a flight, I consciously force myself to operate each fuel switch independently and with full attention. I avoid building muscle memory that might lead to switching off both engines in a fast, well-practiced habit. If this is a technical issue, I assume we’ll know soon enough. On item 2, the video shows no asymmetry at any time, so there is only a symmetric failure of the engines possible. Back on a B747 classic, you could chop all 4 engines at the same time with one hand, on a B737, also, not so much on a B777 or B787. I would doubt that anyone used two hands to cut the fuel at screen height. Note, there was a B744 that lost one engine in cruise when a clip board fell off the coaming. Didn't happen twice, and it only happened to one engine.
Yes indeed, the moment they pulled the gear lever, as we see the gear begin the retraction process, and then suddenly stop. Almost as if they suddenly lost power.
We can see the landing gear retraction process begin. We see the bogies tilted in the second video. We can hear the RAT. We can see the RAT. We can see the flaps extended in the video and at the crash site. There isn't actually a single piece of evidence the flaps were raised, it's just a conclusion people jumped too before evidence began to emerge. The crazy thing is, when the report comes out and there is no mention of flaps none of the people who have been pushing the flap theory will self reflect or learn anything. They'll think those of us who didn't buy into it were just lucky, rather than it being down to use of fairly simple critical thinking. Neila83 is correct, the gear tilt pre retraction is rear wheels low, and at the commencement of the selection of the retraction cycle (generally), There is enough in the way of anomalies here to end up with regulatory action, and airlines themselves should/will be starting to pore over their systems and decide if they are comfortable with the airworthiness of the aircraft at this moment. A latent single point of failure is not a comfortable place to be. Inhibiting TCMA might be a good interim option, that system could have been negated by having the ATR ARM switches....(Both)... ARM deferred to the before takeoff checks. The EAFR recovery should result in action within the next 24-48 hours. Boeing needs to be getting their tiger teams warmed up, they can ill afford to have a latent system fault discovered that is not immediately responded to, and the general corporate response of "blame the pilots" is not likely to win any future orders. I think we are about to have some really busy days for the OEM. Not sure that Neila83 is that far off the mark at all. Last edited by fdr; 14th Jun 2025 at 01:21 . Reason: corrected for B788 by Capt Bloggs! 8 users liked this post. |
mechpowi
2025-06-13T22:50:00 permalink Post: 11900977 |
I've been closely examining a video frame captured very early in the footage depicting the aircraft's final moments. In this particular frame, I believe the
left main landing gear (MLG) door is clearly visible in the open position
, while the
right MLG door appears closed
. Additionally, both
main gear bogies are noticeably tilted forward
\x97 a configuration that typically occurs at the initiation of the gear retraction sequence.
This combination strongly suggests that a gear retraction was commanded , but the sequence was interrupted and never completed . What\x92s particularly striking is the asymmetry \x97 the left door open, the right door closed \x97 which should not occur during normal operations and points toward a possible hydraulic failure scenario during retraction. As many will know, on the Boeing 787-8, each main gear door is hydraulically actuated and powered by its respective side\x92s hydraulic system \x97 the left gear door by the left hydraulic system , and the right by the right . This leads me to propose the following hypothesis:
Further supporting this theory are:
In the meantime, my thoughts are very much with all those affected by this heartbreaking event. ( NOTE: Unfortunately this is my first post here. I wanted to upload the frame for all to see but the forum is restricting me from doing this until I reach 8 posts. I can't link to it via a URL either. I studied a frame from the very start of the video, just as the full aircraft enters view and expanded it by 400% allowing me to see the position of the MLG doors). 2 users liked this post. |
amc890
2025-06-13T23:07:00 permalink Post: 11900986 |
Interested observer here, nothing more; with a question:
If the mayday call has been reported correctly, it states: \x91Mayday! No thrust. Losing power. Cannot lift.\x92 Is the term \x91Cannot lift\x92 standard comms for lack of climb rate/stall? If not, it strikes me that the transcript is incomplete, either due to loss of comms, inaudibility, or even just bad reporting. \x91Cannot lift gear\x92? |
TURIN
2025-06-13T23:16:00 permalink Post: 11900989 |
I have no knowledge about 787, but every landing gear system I\x92ve worked with did not sequence Left and Right MLG to retract and extend with each other. In fact it is typical for left and right side to move at slightly different speed due to different friction etc. Retraction assymmetry is probably not a clue to this mystery.
The 787 landing gear is operated by the centre hydraulic system's two electric pumps. I have no idea why they have posted such nonsense. 1 user liked this post. |
appruser
2025-06-13T23:21:00 permalink Post: 11900993 |
Combining all the bits and pieces of info from this thread so far, IMO we can theoretically sequence it thus using the video from the left:
00:18 Rotation. Normal takeoff config. 00:24 Gear up starts. per Raffael with FF. ......... FR24 ADSB last transmission (71ft, 172kt) just before runway threshold. Matches with video aircraft altitude at 1/2 wingspan. ......... ? Full power flameout leaves N2 ~ 60%; Airspeed < 200k so N2 will decay to 15% in 8-10s? ......... ? Takeoff EGT of 900C needs 25-35s to fall below 250C ? 00:27 Gear up stops. per Raffael with FF. Bogies tilted. ......... ? APU starts. 20-55s to 95%N? ......... Per 787 dual-engine fail/stall memory items, PM initiates Fuel Cutoff and Run. 00:28 Visible loss of thrust. Alt ~ 200ft using aircraft wingspan as measure. ......... Matches with eyewitness "within 5-10s ... it was stuck in the air". ......... Per 787 dual-engine fail/stall memory items, PM initiates RAT Switch for 1s. Whether auto or manual, the RAT initiates. ......... RAT "bang" heard by survivor ......... RAT coming online accounts for eyewitness "lights started flickering green and white". ......... Per 787 QRH below 1000ft, PF makes no change to Main Landing Gear and flaps, aircraft pointed straight for best glide. 00:31 Descending visibly, somewhere beyond the runway threshold. Alt ~ 200ft using aircraft wingspan as measure. ......... ? Because EGT > 250C FADEC blocks fuel (T-HOT hot restart inhibit?) so no relight though N2 > 15% ? ......... 787 glide ratio between 16:1 to 25:1 with MLG down, Flaps 5. About 15-20s and 3-5000ft of glide from 200ft? ......... Some flap accounts for the ground pictures. 00:34 ? N2 has presumably decayed to 15%, FADEC flips to X-START: airspeed outside envelope? No hope of relight now. ......... PM/PF transmits Mayday? ......... Video showing RAT deployed. 00:46 APU reaches some fraction of 95%N (APU sound accounting for survivor's perception of thrust?). 00:48 Impact. 4200ft from descent start, 3990ft from airport boundary road. 17s from visible descent start. if this is a valid sequence, the only remaining question is why the dual-engine failure at ~200ft agl? with condolences to the families and people affected. 4 users liked this post. |
krismiler
2025-06-14T00:38:00 permalink Post: 11901031 |
Does the B787 have auto flap retract ? Possibly a fault in the system could cause the flaps to retract during the take off run which would not give a configuration warning at the start if they were set correctly. Aircraft uses more runway than normal which it seems to have done, crew become aware of the problem near rotation and miss retracting the landing gear while trying to work out what's going on.
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Sailvi767
2025-06-14T00:46:00 permalink Post: 11901037 |
Does the B787 have auto flap retract ? Possibly a fault in the system could cause the flaps to retract during the take off run which would not give a configuration warning at the start if they were set correctly. Aircraft uses more runway than normal which it seems to have done, crew become aware of the problem near rotation and miss retracting the landing gear while trying to work out what's going on.
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