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Tailspin Turtle
2025-06-14T21:22:00 permalink Post: 11901853 |
You might want to rethink that.
It's approximately 1km glide from where the aircraft was at roughly 200ft, not 2 km. 1km equals about 3000ft, so that is a glide ratio of 15. Taking into account a bit of excess speed to bleed off before reaching alpha max, this sounds very feasible to me. Aeronautical engineer, CFI, unused ATP rating, 3,000 hours in airplanes, rotorcraft, and gliders |
Tailspin Turtle
2025-06-15T03:47:00 permalink Post: 11902079 |
IMO
In the CCTV video, the aircraft stops climbing at 00:28. 3 seconds after, it starts visibly descending. At peak altitude, using the 197ft wingspan as a measure, the altitude is around 200ft or below. The fireball is at 00:48, 17s after descent starts visibly. Per google maps and the impact location mapped at avherald, the impact point is ~3990ft from the airport boundary road and about 4200ft from the midpoint of the runway threshold and the airport boundary road. 16:1 to 25:1 is what I could find for the 787 glide ratio range (unpowered) with main landing gear down and flaps 5. So the aircraft could cover 16 to 25 ft horizontally for every 1 ft of descent. With a starting altitude of 200ft, that would imply it could have covered 3200ft.to 5000ft during unpowered descent. The actual distance covered, around 4000ft, certainly seems to suggest that the descent was unpowered. 1 user liked this post. |
Tailspin Turtle
2025-06-17T12:46:00 permalink Post: 11904272 |
Based on approximate distances and heights, the time line, the aircraft configuration, surface wind, the published L/D (gear up reduced to a guess for gear down and RAT out), and probable off-optimum speed for maximum L/D in that configuration, it's my opinion (aeronautical engineer, unused ATP rating, and glider pilot, national contests) that we can't rule out both engines being at idle or very low thrust at or shortly after rotation,
rather than shut down.
Last edited by Tailspin Turtle; 17th Jun 2025 at 16:28 . Reason: Added final phrase for clarification 2 users liked this post. |
Tailspin Turtle
2025-06-19T23:38:00 permalink Post: 11906487 |
Can someone help me with the calculations on how far from the point of our last ADS-B readout we can expect the stricken jet to fly/glide?
I am assuming the take off mass around 190-200 tons with 50 tons of fuel. For the glide phase this is of no importance, however. Data on the Internet puts the glide ratio of a 789 around 18-21:1. Gear and flaps/slats out should have a significant negative effect. Does anyone have a good take how much? Minus 40%? From the available data we can infer the plane never was higher than 200\x92 AAL, maybe even 100\x92. If I understood the online sources correctly, the point of impact was only about 20\x92 lower than the average runway level. If I am not mistaken the distance from the last ADS-B point to the impact site is about 2 km as per Reuters and the Guardian. That would put it at 6,500\x92. I just can\x92t get these numbers over each other without the aircraft producing thrust. Please help me correcting the numbers. 1 user liked this post. |
NOC40
2025-06-20T16:04:00 permalink Post: 11907092 |
In the CSV data set that can be downloaded from that link the first point with altitude data is 1630 ft short of the departure threshold. That point is 575. The highest alt recorded in the data set is 625. All the points with altitude data overlay the departure runway. I do not understand how anyone is using this data set to determine the maximum altitude which was way past the departure end.
![]() Edit to add - I have made no attempt to correct the raw ADS-B altitude data. There is no need to make any correction to see altitude gain. I've had a bit more time to analyse now. Those ADS-B data points (and particularly the rate of deceleration) are EXACTLY what you would expect to see from a total engine failure at or very shortly after TAKE-OFF (it implies a 13:1 L/D which must be pretty close for gear down and flaps 5). It places takeoff at 700m before the runway end @ ~185kt Based on those, max altitude was c250ft @ 140kt (or the equivalent total energy equivalent), 500m after the end of the runway. 13:1 L/D would also get you groundspeed on impact of 120kt Do those numbers make sense? |
Yo_You_Not_You_you
2025-06-20T16:39:00 permalink Post: 11907121 |
I posted my first-cut analysis in the earlier thread.
I've had a bit more time to analyse now. Those ADS-B data points (and particularly the rate of deceleration) are EXACTLY what you would expect to see from a total engine failure at or very shortly after TAKE-OFF (it implies a 13:1 L/D which must be pretty close for gear down and flaps 5). It places takeoff at 700m before the runway end @ ~185kt Based on those, max altitude was c250ft @ 140kt (or the equivalent total energy equivalent), 500m after the end of the runway. 13:1 L/D would also get you groundspeed on impact of 120kt Do those numbers make sense? ![]() Exact location of house, Approx distance of 1.5 km from end of runway to crash site . Coordinates of the camera : 23\xb003'42.3"N 72\xb037'03.5"E The Approx Camera location of the Balcony is the Red Mark . Can the speed be calculated . Does the speed line up with the ADS B data , Does it Gain Any speed after this Balcony point ? Co-incidently Another Witness is the Grand Mother of the Balcony Teen, she was closer to the airport as per her . she is saying that the engine was silent after it passed over (but making sound , when it was Over , RAT already deployed?? ) and made offhand comment it was gonna crash . Found that out later . |
First_Principal
2025-06-21T08:19:00 permalink Post: 11907566 |
"Boeing explained that the RAT will remain operational as the airplane decelerates through the minimum RAT design speed of 120 knots, not 130 knots. Boeing expressed that the performance of the RAT was shown to meet the Boeing Model 787 requirement that specifies 120 knots as the minimum RAT design speed. We agree that the RAT will remain operational as the airplane decelerates through the minimum RAT design speed of 120 knots, not 130 knots..." Again I'm not sure this is of any particular utility now, but is included here in the interests of ensuring as much factual data is available as possible. FP. 5 users liked this post. |
Tailspin Turtle
2025-06-29T19:09:00 permalink Post: 11913181 |
Do we think the engines are fully 'off', shutdown - Or are they struggling to provide thrust?
Listen to the rooftop video in Capn Bloggs excellent Side-By-Side video . Ignore the RAT. Try and focus on all the sound that is not RAT. I think I can hear a pulsing, a chunk-chunk-chunk' sound. Do we think that is the engines struggling to work? 1 user liked this post. |
Sailvi767
2025-06-30T00:40:00 permalink Post: 11913309 |
An admittedly approximate assessment of the airplane's lift-over-drag capability, considering other conditions (head wind, ground effect, actual airspeed vs that required to maximize L/D, etc.) suggests that the engines were providing some thrust in order for it to get as far as it did. Note that simple calculations based on conversion of energy, e.g. velocity and height, to distance are even more approximate in this scenario.
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Tailspin Turtle
2025-07-01T02:09:00 permalink Post: 11913983 |
This is my latest attempt to square the circle using all the data points and minimal assumptions. The main shortcoming of the analysis is not knowing the maximum L/D and the speed for maximum LD with the gear down, flaps 5, and the RAT extended. However, if I use a reasonable number in my opinion for the L/D in that configuration and assume that the airplane is being flown at the speed for it, it will not get to the crash site. The distance from the runway of the crash site is from a previous graphic (1.55 km); the rotation point from fdr, permalink 314; 200 feet max height above the runway being generally accepted; crash site 50 feet below the runway elevation cited previously. An average speed of 180 knots is consistent with the dimensions given and 30 seconds flight time. A flare at 50 feet will briefly increase the L/D to 20, maybe even 30 (500 feet more than shown) but still not enough to make up the shortfall, In fact, with a head wind the L/D will be lower than assumed as well as if the speed being flown is higher or lower than required for maximum L/D in that configuration. In other words, there must have been some thrust available.
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MaybeItIs
2025-07-01T02:24:00 permalink Post: 11913990 |
Hi TT,
Can I ask a question that I guess a few observers will also want to know? Is L/D (Lift-over-Drag?) the same as Glide Slope? I.e. for an L/D of 13, does that equate to 13 forward for 1 down? If so, even at 17, it doesn't look like it would make it. Last edited by MaybeItIs; 1st Jul 2025 at 02:25 . Reason: Remove double-negative |
Tailspin Turtle
2025-07-01T03:33:00 permalink Post: 11914003 |
Yes - Higher numbers are better. The 787 has one of the best for an airliner, almost 21 power off.
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EXDAC
2025-07-01T03:35:00 permalink Post: 11914005 |
So, 13:1 is equivalent to 4.4 degrees. 1 user liked this post. |
13 others
2025-07-01T05:31:00 permalink Post: 11914021 |
Perhaps a result of being too dense, in these threads I have not understood whatsoever the discussions on L/D, best glide, AOA, stall speed, angles, whatever, as being relevant to this flight. I assume that the pilot flying was flying, i.e. stick and rudder. I give him/her the benefit of the doubt on account of being a pilot. Professional or not.
In the accident observed, the lessons learned in a Piper Cub, or lessor, apply. If you sense that you're going to smack the ground, then by God smack the ground with that part of you best engineered to take the relevant forces involved. Even pigeons understand this. This is a function of intuition. It's pointless to waste ink/electrons on the subject. In simple terms, the bottom-side of the aircraft most compressible without tender flesh involved is where a pilot should be expected to pitch to. These pilots, from a far away perspective, did it right. Proof being that someone walked away. 3 users liked this post. |
Musician
2025-07-01T05:56:00 permalink Post: 11914025 |
This is my latest attempt to square the circle using all the data points and minimal assumptions. The main shortcoming of the analysis is not knowing the maximum L/D and the speed for maximum LD with the gear down, flaps 5, and the RAT extended. However, if I use a reasonable number in my opinion for the L/D in that configuration and assume that the airplane is being flown at the speed for it, it will not get to the crash site. The distance from the runway of the crash site is from a previous graphic (1.55 km); the rotation point from fdr, permalink 314; 200 feet max height above the runway being generally accepted; crash site 50 feet below the runway elevation cited previously. An average speed of 180 knots is consistent with the dimensions given and 30 seconds flight time. A flare at 50 feet will briefly increase the L/D to 20, maybe even 30 (500 feet more than shown) but still not enough to make up the shortfall, In fact, with a head wind the L/D will be lower than assumed as well as if the speed being flown is higher or lower than required for maximum L/D in that configuration. In other words, there must have been some thrust available.
![]() 1) I had seen the "50 feet below runway" referenced as well, and double-checked on Google Earth, and could not confirm this. The terrain looks reasonably level. I'd be happy to see evidence for this claim, but until I do, I'll think it's false. 2) The maximum L/D is given for optimal speed, which remains constant throughout the glide. In the AI171 case, drag is balanced not just by loss of altitude (as it is in the optimal glide), but also by loss of speed. The speed decline provides energy, and I suspect that makes up the shortfall you assign to thrust. Note that kinetic energy is proportional to v\xb2, i.e. a speed loss of 50 knots from 180 to 130 vs 50 to 0 provides 15500 vs 2500 units of energy, i.e. 6 times as much. If you hypothetically hurl a unpowered aircraft into the sky with a catapult (and if there was no drag), hurling it at 180 knots makes it go 6 times as high by the time its speed decays to 130 knots than it could ever go if you hurled it at 50 knots. Of course there's drag in reality, and that also varies with v\xb2, so this is a very theoretical consideration intended to calibrate your expectations. I remember that someone used some kind of tool to confirm that the aircraft could've gone unpowered for as long as we assume it did, but of course I can't find it again now. :-( 1 user liked this post. |
FullWings
2025-07-01T06:45:00 permalink Post: 11914044 |
Perhaps a result of being too dense, in these threads I have not understood whatsoever the discussions on L/D, best glide, AOA, stall speed, angles, whatever, as being relevant to this flight. I assume that the pilot flying was flying, i.e. stick and rudder. I give him/her the benefit of the doubt on account of being a pilot. Professional or not.
The real question is why this happened when engines and their associated systems are, by design and regulation, as independent as possible. The top runners at the moment are (in no particular order): pilot action, simultaneous hardware/software malfunction and massive fuel contamination. They are all very unlikely (and cogent technical arguments can be made against each of them) but so is the event that followed. |
EDML
2025-07-01T11:38:00 permalink Post: 11914210 |
This is my latest attempt to square the circle using all the data points and minimal assumptions. The main shortcoming of the analysis is not knowing the maximum L/D and the speed for maximum LD with the gear down, flaps 5, and the RAT extended. However, if I use a reasonable number in my opinion for the L/D in that configuration and assume that the airplane is being flown at the speed for it, it will not get to the crash site. The distance from the runway of the crash site is from a previous graphic (1.55 km); the rotation point from fdr, permalink 314; 200 feet max height above the runway being generally accepted; crash site 50 feet below the runway elevation cited previously. An average speed of 180 knots is consistent with the dimensions given and 30 seconds flight time. A flare at 50 feet will briefly increase the L/D to 20, maybe even 30 (500 feet more than shown) but still not enough to make up the shortfall, In fact, with a head wind the L/D will be lower than assumed as well as if the speed being flown is higher or lower than required for maximum L/D in that configuration. In other words, there must have been some thrust available.
2 users liked this post. |
nachtmusak
2025-07-01T12:06:00 permalink Post: 11914222 |
This is my latest attempt to square the circle using all the data points and minimal assumptions. The main shortcoming of the analysis is not knowing the maximum L/D and the speed for maximum LD with the gear down, flaps 5, and the RAT extended. However, if I use a reasonable number in my opinion for the L/D in that configuration and assume that the airplane is being flown at the speed for it, it will not get to the crash site. The distance from the runway of the crash site is from a previous graphic (1.55 km); the rotation point from fdr, permalink 314; 200 feet max height above the runway being generally accepted; crash site 50 feet below the runway elevation cited previously. An average speed of 180 knots is consistent with the dimensions given and 30 seconds flight time. A flare at 50 feet will briefly increase the L/D to 20, maybe even 30 (500 feet more than shown) but still not enough to make up the shortfall, In fact, with a head wind the L/D will be lower than assumed as well as if the speed being flown is higher or lower than required for maximum L/D in that configuration. In other words, there must have been some thrust available.
![]() As the aircraft visibly continues to climb past that height (and for a longer period than ADS-B data covers, if the camera's perspective casts doubt on that), it seems rather clear to me that it reached its peak height past the end of the runway. In light of this I find the fact that people keep calculating a glide from the runway to the crash site to be a bit strange. Wouldn't the first step of any math be to try to determine where it started descending? |
Tailspin Turtle
2025-07-01T13:05:00 permalink Post: 11914261 |
There is easily-correctable available data with the aircraft's altitude at pretty much the end of the runway and it is not at 200 feet (it's around 100\xb112.5 feet).
As the aircraft visibly continues to climb past that height (and for a longer period than ADS-B data covers, if the camera's perspective casts doubt on that), it seems rather clear to me that it reached its peak height past the end of the runway. In light of this I find the fact that people keep calculating a glide from the runway to the crash site to be a bit strange. Wouldn't the first step of any math be to try to determine where it started descending? |
jdaley
2025-07-01T14:04:00 permalink Post: 11914293 |
The cctv neither confirms nor denies that top of climb could be as high as 270'. My 1km/200' estimate was conservative. I guessed 160kt average over the 7s to allow for the 25007 wind and some deceleration. Basically you cannot rule out loss of thrust around the time of loss of electrics. |
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