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ScepticalOptomist
2025-06-13T05:13:00 permalink Post: 11900007 |
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Good Business Sense
2025-06-13T06:07:00 permalink Post: 11900032 |
Couldn't agree more - never understood this - got to say, calling a mayday seconds into an event (particularly when still down in the dirt) does my head in - nobody is coming up to help. I think you need to keep the focus completely on the task at hand. In an emergency, external distractions destroy checklist SOPs, crew coordination etc etc - I try and keep ATC, company maintenance, etc etc disruptions out of the cockpit until everything is under control.
1 user liked this post. |
giblets
2025-06-13T07:00:00 permalink Post: 11900083 |
In terms of the Mayday message, maybe Reading into it too much, it was not \x91lost power\x92 but loosing power. \x91
clearly we have no idea at this point how fast this happened, but slowly enough to state this. however it has been seen with the Jetstar incident below that both engines can lose power simultaneously due to fuel filter blockage due to something in separate tanks. is there someway the tanker could have picked up some contamination somewhere!?! I know the biocide (showing that even previously \x91safe\x92 additives can cause issues) in question is no longer used. https://aerossurance.com/safety-mana...-genx-biocide/ |
Sisiphos
2025-06-13T07:03:00 permalink Post: 11900085 |
To me the radio call signals possibly helplessness and confusion.I do not think a pilot who understands what is going on would make the call. He would be too busy trouble shooting. It could be a sign that is was NOT an engine failure or a bird strike ( in both cases they would have mentioned it). Nor a deliberate crash. They had no idea why they could not climb and that tells me they most probably retracted the flaps. Time will tell. Last edited by Sisiphos; 13th Jun 2025 at 07:22 . 4 users liked this post. |
Captain Biggles 101
2025-06-13T08:07:00 permalink Post: 11900140 |
There isn't enough clarity on numerous issues, and without answers to the following, zero conclusions can be made as to a possible cause. This is definitely one that could go in numerous directions. Anyone claiming to have the definitive answers must have the FDR data, and I'm assuming that shouldn't take too long to be located and analysed.
1a. Were flaps deployed at start of take off roll? 1b. Were flaps retracted coinciding with climb rate reduction? 2. Did the RAT definitely deploy? The videos are grainy low quality. AI improvement surely isn't reliable. 3. If the RAT deployed, would that indicate complete power loss? 4. Was there any other audio indicating thrust loss or variations during departure? 5. Can we confirm the pilot Mayday indicating thrust loss? If so, that needs investigation as a first priority. The pilot was telling us the cause. Unless we have alternative information he should be believed. 6. Why was the gear not retracted? Distraction, hydraulic failure, flap instead of gear, intentionally, the possibilities are endless. 7. If complete thrust loss occurred, other than a severe fuel issue, what could cause simultaneous flameout? That would be almost unimaginable, yet this is what the pilot allergy said happened. It would have massive ramifications if that gets confirmed. I don't think the video clips we have are clear enough to say anything at all at this stage. Flaps are hard to see on 787 imo for departure settings. All I can say is it appeared to climb well in the first seconds, then coinciding with the point that gear would usually be retracted, lift appears to very quickly be lost. That indicates sudden speed loss, or lift loss. Speed loss would be thrust, lift loss would be flap retraction if thrust was still available. The pilot allegedly reported thrust loss, that should be highest on the list of causes imo. In the case of double engine failure without any apparent outside influence visible on videos, that would be quite something for investigators to fathom. I don't know if anyone has data to show speed trend at the point the aircraft starts to descend, or a better audio for thrust variations at that point. I'm guessing that the update frequency on FR24 would be too slow to show that sudden change at the highest point achieved. We'll have the answers soon enough, all I can say is there appears to be no clear answers here without the data recorders or clear improved information. Indeed no conclusions whatsoever can be made as to crew actions either. RIP crew and passengers, condolences to the families. 1 user liked this post. |
Arrowhead
2025-06-13T09:03:00 permalink Post: 11900213 |
https://assets.publishing.service.go...211_G-POWN.pdf
One example of fuel contamination causing a significant loss of thrust on both engines at low altitude. But it seems extremely unlikely for contaminated fuel to impact both engines at exactly the same time, with no asymmetry and no surges or smoke. What can cause a sudden catastrophic loss of thrust on both engines at exactly the same time? Birds (but no apparent surges) Inadvertent movement of the fuel cut off switches (which would be an incredible error but I suppose it could conceivably be muscle memory having done so recently after the last leg…weirder things have happened. Remember the 767 events of the late 80s) Intentional shutdown of the engines (pilot suicide has happened before) Some catastrophic electrical/FADEC/engine interface failure (which I highly doubt is feasible in a modern 1309 aircraft) I can’t think of any others… I cant think of any reason for electrical failure and "no thrust" (as per statements) without any visual cues other than (a) suicide, or (b) starvation. Is there any electrical failure that can cause fuel valves to close? I dont fly Boeing, so can any Dreamliner driver explain what conditions could trigger an overspeed and auto engine shutdown (quote from Google below)? Would short runway, and hot/low QNH do it? Also, what happened to the order demanding a full power down/recycle every 51 days? The EEC has build in protections to protect the engine. One of these protections is the Engine Overspeed Protection, when the core engine exceeds 120% the EEC shuts off the fuel to the applicable engine. Last edited by Arrowhead; 13th Jun 2025 at 09:46 . |
lakedude
2025-06-13T09:04:00 permalink Post: 11900214 |
Probably the best, early stage theory of the the cause that I have seen as yet. By a current 777 captain:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7EZkungFEE 4 users liked this post. |
Tech Guy
2025-06-13T09:04:00 permalink Post: 11900216 |
True. But possibly the pilot realised the gravity of their situation and decided that one last message of "what's happening" may help any following investigation.
4 users liked this post. |
Screamliner
2025-06-13T09:36:00 permalink Post: 11900252 |
Hi everyone, 787 driver here, well lets look at the facts we see
very late rotation, but pitch and departure path look like normal up until stalling point. mayday was called but without clarification or purpose, for me this indicates stress in the flight deck, especially low level no smoke or fire from engines, I would rule out severe damage or birdstrikes at this point Flaps 5 departure would be difficult to see as a pixel on a bad video, but they would not have made the rotation at that speed so I assume they used flaps during departure, also you would neglect to ECL's and a config warning no RAT to be seen either, again ruling out dual engine failure, also the climb would not have been so parabolic maybe single engine fuel starvation/Mechanical issue/dirty fuel, but seems unlikely, the flight path is too gentle Gear stays down, and even though the pitch remains the same, they start losing lift and basically stall the aircraft into the ground don't forget, Air India uses 64/67K engines on they're 787's, with temp of 41 degrees (ambient, so even more above tarmac) and a QNH of 1001, those engines will be pushed to "hard work mode" already IMHO, two things I could assume happend - either single engine failure, no pitch adjustment and speed fell below Vstall, OR, most likely - mixup of Flaps moved to up position in stead of Gear moved to up position, that would clarify the gear, would clarify the loss of lift and that the engines have no smoke, and no RAT, 10 users liked this post. |
Snow_Owl
2025-06-13T09:49:00 permalink Post: 11900264 |
Current information from the sole survivor indicates that he heard a loud sound and that the aircraft then seemed to float (glide) before then hitting the buildings.
The 39-year-old, who was in seat 11a next to an emergency exit, described how the plane took off and then became “stuck in the air”, before lights began flickering green and white. He said: “The aircraft wasn’t gaining altitude and was just gliding before it suddenly slammed into a building and exploded.
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Europa01
2025-06-13T09:50:00 permalink Post: 11900266 |
Mayday Message
Possibly the Captain did correctly perceive the information on the status of the aircraft Possibly he did correctly comprehend the situation. Possibly he did project the situation into the future (Endsley &Jones) 1 user liked this post. |
bobbytables
2025-06-13T10:01:00 permalink Post: 11900273 |
Hi everyone, 787 driver here, well lets look at the facts we see
very late rotation, but pitch and departure path look like normal up until stalling point. mayday was called but without clarification or purpose, for me this indicates stress in the flight deck, especially low level no smoke or fire from engines, I would rule out severe damage or birdstrikes at this point Flaps 5 departure would be difficult to see as a pixel on a bad video, but they would not have made the rotation at that speed so I assume they used flaps during departure, also you would neglect to ECL's and a config warning no RAT to be seen either, again ruling out dual engine failure, also the climb would not have been so parabolic maybe single engine fuel starvation/Mechanical issue/dirty fuel, but seems unlikely, the flight path is too gentle Gear stays down, and even though the pitch remains the same, they start losing lift and basically stall the aircraft into the ground don't forget, Air India uses 64/67K engines on they're 787's, with temp of 41 degrees (ambient, so even more above tarmac) and a QNH of 1001, those engines will be pushed to "hard work mode" already IMHO, two things I could assume happend - either single engine failure, no pitch adjustment and speed fell below Vstall, OR, most likely - mixup of Flaps moved to up position in stead of Gear moved to up position, that would clarify the gear, would clarify the loss of lift and that the engines have no smoke, and no RAT, very late rotation - stated several times on this thread but zero evidence for it and some analysis suggests the rotation was at roughly the same location as previous departures of the same flight no RAT - others, including one with a lot of experience with the sound of a deployed RAT, insist that it was deployed. The video evidence is unclear. Not saying you\x92re necessarily wrong about anything but I take issue with those that state as fact things that are not (yet) supported by any evidence at all 18 users liked this post. |
lighttwin2
2025-06-13T10:06:00 permalink Post: 11900279 |
This seems to be the best summary so far. Based on the detail of the mayday its probably time to rule out the flaps, load shift, and other suggestions.
I cant think of any reason for "no thrust" (as per ATC) without any visual cues other than (a) suicide, or (b) starvation. Is there any electrical failure that can cause fuel valves to close? I dont fly Boeing, so can any Dreamliner driver explain what conditions could trigger an overspeed and auto engine shutdown (quote from Google below)? Would short runway, and hot/low QNH do it? The EEC has build in protections to protect the engine. One of these protections is the Engine Overspeed Protection, when the core engine exceeds 120% the EEC shuts off the fuel to the applicable engine. Many GE engines - including GEnx-1B/67s - require microprocessors to be routinely replaced due to soldered joints failing after multiple cycles. There is a 2021 AD that notes "This AD was prompted by an in-service occurrence of loss of engine thrust control resulting in uncommanded high thrust" (I cannot post a link but google: 2021-25491 (86 FR 66447)) I am NOT suggesting that this specific failure mode happened here - for one thing, this would happen to one engine, not both. But on any flight it is possible that a unique set of sensor inputs to occur that are the first time any system has encountered them (example: NATS incident in 2023), and then you need failover & redundancy to keep things working. The GE Aviation CCS system, which includes thrust management, has up to now flown for 1m flight hours without incident. It would be interesting to hear the perspectives of any engineers familiar with the system. |
Tu.114
2025-06-13T10:11:00 permalink Post: 11900287 |
So what is known at the moment?
- The flight crew consisted of an experienced Captain and a First Officer with a little more than 1000 hours. Whether or not this flight was a training event appears not yet determined. - The aircraft departed from Ahmedabad, using full length of the runway, lifting off at an appropriate distance from the departure end and reaching an altitude of less than 1000ft before descending again to an impact. It therefore got out of ground effect. Also, the power selected for takeoff was sufficient to get the aircraft airborne within the constraints of the field. - The landing gear was left down much longer than usual and remained so for the whole duration of the flight. - Flaps appear to have been extended normally to a setting not triggering any pre-takeoff configuration warning. On the 787, extended TE flaps are not as obviously visible as on other types, especially with low quality pictures, but a gap between the flaps and the wing proper was visible, showing a glimpse of the engine nacelle through it. - Whether or not the RAT was out appears not entirely clear, although there are strong indicators of it being deployed. If this is confirmed, this seems to point to a major engine or electric issue. - Engine noise is surprisingly low on the available videos, either drowned out by environnmental noise (the 787 is not a noisy bird) or due to lack of power produced. - Descent was at a very high AOA and appears not intentional. The crew did not decide to push the nose down. - The aircraft appears to have been structurally intact with nothing issuing from it. No debris, smoke, fumes or liquids were in trail, no parts were observed to have been lost or dropped. - There seems to have been a mayday call from the aircraft, possibly indicating power issues. The crew seems to have found no reason to abort the takeoff before V1. Whatever befell them must have struck past that speed and given them cause not to retract the landing gear. Whether the lever was not moved or the systems did not react to it is not determined yet. The aircraft had enough energy to climb to about 600, in any case less than 1000ft altitude. Ahmedabad seems not to call for a specific NADP, but whether it was NADP1, 2, A or B that was flown, it is fairly safe to assume that its normal regime would have been takeoff power and takeoff flap settings at that time. Multiple other aircraft departed from or arrived at Ahmedabad before the accident, of which at least one must in all probability have taken onboard the fuel from the local bowsers in substantial amounts and used it without troubles, or else there would have been other flights in trouble due to this. I am awaiting the preliminary report from the authorities and the readout of the data recorders with much interest. Last edited by Tu.114; 13th Jun 2025 at 10:32 . 14 users liked this post. |
Xeptu
2025-06-13T10:14:00 permalink Post: 11900293 |
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neila83
2025-06-13T10:37:00 permalink Post: 11900323 |
Why are people still talking about flaps and incorrect takeoff data settings? 14 users liked this post. |
neila83
2025-06-13T10:45:00 permalink Post: 11900333 |
I think this is the wrong attitude and technique, but it's an opinion.
To me the radio call signals possibly helplessness and confusion.I do not think a pilot who understands what is going on would make the call. He would be too busy trouble shooting. It could be a sign that is was NOT an engine failure or a bird strike ( in both cases they would have mentioned it). Nor a deliberate crash. They had no idea why they could not climb and that tells me they most probably retracted the flaps. Time will tell. Of course the didn't know why they'd lost power, they just knew they'd lost it. Yeh they would have felt pretty helpless 200 feet above the ground surrounded by tall buildings. My heart goes out to them being by that point no more than passengers to their own death. At least the actual passengers didn't have to watch the building coming at them knowing there was no escape. It's unthinkable. So I don't know how on earth you think this suggests the flap theory. You're reading an awful lot into the words of a man who was likely processing the fact he's about to die in a horrific way. Can we just forget about flaps? We have pictures of the wing at the crash site with flaps extended. The plane is on video with no engine noise and the RAT audible and visible. The pilot sent a mayday saying they'd lost thrust. The only survivor says the lights were flickering and the cabin went dark. Why are some people so desperate to pin this on a pilot mistake there is zero evidence for? 33 users liked this post. |
pampel
2025-06-13T10:46:00 permalink Post: 11900336 |
The idea that the flaps weren't set for take off also seems incredibly dubious given that in several frames of the original footage you can see the engines through the wings, on both sides, something not explainable by grainy footage or compression artifacts, and only possible if the flaps are down. Edit to add: the reports on social media from the previous passengers complaining about non-functional electronics have been confirmed Last edited by pampel; 13th Jun 2025 at 11:31 . 3 users liked this post. |
bobbytables
2025-06-13T11:08:00 permalink Post: 11900361 |
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akaSylvia
2025-06-13T11:15:00 permalink Post: 11900369 |
https://www.businesstoday.in/india/s...142-2025-06-12 However, I can't find any reference of the specifics of the distress call or any evidence that they said they were suffering a lack of power. |
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