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MR8
June 15, 2025, 12:07:00 GMT permalink Post: 11902414 |
Altitude reached AAL
No, they did not climb that high. Latest FR24 ADS-B report was indeed 625 ft, but that is based on 1013 (STD). With the local QNH being 1000, that 625ft becomes roughly 300ft MSL. Corrected for airport elevation, this is just above 100ft. The last recorded altitude of the aircraft was roughly 100ft AGL, which does not mean it didn\x92t climb a bit higher, but the aircraft reaching 400ft is pure speculation.
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Captain Fishy
June 15, 2025, 21:56:00 GMT permalink Post: 11902882 |
Do not discount the mistaken early flap retraction scenario too easily. Mull on this:
PF commanded gear up on attaining positive rate of climb, fixating on the HUD. PM mistakenly raise flap lever from 5 to Flap 1 gate. Thrust reduced to Climb Thrust. Landing gear remained deployed. Massive loss of lift misidentified as loss of thrust. If any one pilot just had a dual engine failure scenario on a recent sim ride, brain and muscle memory would jump to loss of thrust in dual engine, prompting them to accomplish the recall memory items which called for both engine fuel control switches to CUTOFF and then RUN, and physically deployed the RAT. There would be immediate loss of thrust with the engine taking time to recover , if at all, at such low airspeed! The rest is left for Ppruners\x92 imagination.😖🥴😬 A loss of lift AND thrust at this critical juncture could have had caused this awful disaster. I think the data recorders have already revealed the cause but If it's this, then I don't think we will hear much anytime soon. |
bakutteh
June 16, 2025, 06:41:00 GMT permalink Post: 11903143 |
Fuel Cavitation/Vapour block?
If decrease in thrust not by transition to climb thrust due to early inadvertent flap retraction and pilot action on fuel control switches from accomplishing dual engine failure memory items, then fuel cavitation /fuel fumes lock may be a cause. Just saying.
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EDML
June 17, 2025, 14:47:00 GMT permalink Post: 11904364 |
Here’s what went down:
CP as PF (hands on the thrust levers), accidentally retards thrust levers just after lift-off, due to low level turbulence (hot, dry, 40\xb0C). FO as PM (being trigger happy) sees this as DUAL ENG failure, does memory items (at the speed of light), without confirmation from the PF. The rest is history… While I deleted the offending post, I am leaving this objection to it and the text being objected to, up since this response was warranted. T28B Last edited by T28B; 17th June 2025 at 15:53 . Reason: advice of my mod edit |
777ret
June 18, 2025, 22:38:00 GMT permalink Post: 11905597 |
@syseng68k
Consensus here is, that both engines where stopped by a closing fuel cut off valve, wich yields a fast loss of N2. The generators then shut down very quick as does the thrust in a few seconds. This is supported by the quick RAT extension which allowed the crew to control the flight. The APU did autostart too. A thrust changed with the thrust leaver to idle is much slower and would not result in the dramatic change in performance. Thrust set to idle will not engage the RAT since the electric generators would still work. So a thrust leaver changed to idle or any intervention by Autothrust (AT) would not yield to the RAT extension. Something or someone activated a fuel cut off. How and why that happened is the big question, the investigators have to answer. |
nachtmusak
June 19, 2025, 01:00:00 GMT permalink Post: 11905642 |
My understanding of altitude capture is that the autopilot will automatically adjust both thrust and pitch to intercept the requested altitude. However to my eyes there is very little pitch adjustment in the CCTV video of the plane taken from behind, until the very end of the video when it pitches up somewhat (obscured by buildings, more visible in the smartphone video). Please correct me if I'm wrong but I'd have thought that if the autopilot was trying to capture a very low altitude it would start pitching down (quite noticeably!) to do so, not remain at what looks like 10+ degrees nose-up. I honestly struggle to reconcile what I'm looking at in the video with an attempt to level off at 0ft, 200ft, or any of the other mentioned low-level altitudes. Also maybe I'm missing something 787-specific but generally doesn't the autopilot have to be activated for the aircraft to automatically attempt to capture the pre-selected altitude? That was the case in this incident involving a Dash 8 and a target altitude of 0 feet that I am reading about ( https://www.gov.uk/aaib-reports/aaib...-dash-8-g-ecoe ). I'd have thought the PF would still be hand-flying the departure at the point that things went wrong, considering that the gear hadn't even been retracted yet... |
user989
June 19, 2025, 23:26:00 GMT permalink Post: 11906480 |
Summary of main theories
DISCLAIMER: Poster (a) is one of the (apparently quite numerous) lawyers following this thread; (b) a long-time forum lurker and aviation enthusiast who loves studying FCOMs for fun (to each his own, I guess); (c) has followed and read this thread from the start.
What I cannot do is add new theories or uncover any new facts the actual experts have not already thought of. However, since summarizing and structuring information is one thing lawyers tend to regularly do (and sometimes even do well), here is my attempt at a useful contribution to this thread: an attempt to summarize the main theories discussed here since day one (which I think hasn't been done for quite some time) in the hope that a birds-eye view will be helpful to those who have not read everything since the beginning or might even trigger some new flash of inspiration for someone more knowledgable than me. I have focused on the cons since there does not seem to be enough evidence to come to any positive conclusion. I shall try to be concise and to refrain from personal evaluations of my own. Of course, no disrespect whatsoever is intended towards all those who have contributed to this thread and to the individual theories, one or combinations of which may turn out to have led to this tragic outcome. That arguments can be made against every single theory that has been propagated seems to be the result of the highly improbable and unusual nature of this deplorable event and certainly not due to any lack of knowledge or reasoning skills in this forum. DEAR MODS: If I have distorted anything or if, meaning well, should have achieved the opposite \x96 I guess you know where the delete button is\x85 Anyway, here goes: A. Misconfiguration or wrong takeoff data Widely refuted, since
Still brought up from time to time. However, widely disregarded due to
It should be pointed out that the question of "RAT in or out" was for a while the most contentious in this thread. C. Low-altitude capture Still argued, even if refuted by many since
Various possible reasons for this have been discussed: I. Bird strike/FOD
1. Loss of electric fuel pumps
Suction feed would have provided sufficient fuel pressure.
2. Fuel contamination
No other aircraft affected, no measures taken at airport. Simultaneous flameout due to contaminated fuel very unlikely.
3. Vapour lock
Unlikely to occur in this scenario. Even if (momentarily) no sufficient fuel pressure from the center tank, the engines would have been fed by the wing tanks.
III. Improper maintenance
Unclear which maintenance measures could possibly have been performed that would have resulted in simultaneous loss of both engines. No apparent relationships between malfunctions reported by previous passengers and essential systems. IV. Large-scale electrical fault (e.g. due to water in E&E bay) The engines will continue to run if electrical power is lost. FADECs are powered independently. V. Shutdown of engines by TCMA A parallel is drawn to the ANA incident. However, this would require not only a fault in the air/ground logic but also a sensed discrepancy between T/L position (not necessarily idle) and thrust output on both engines simultaneously. VI. (Inadvertent) shutdown by flight crew
1. Spontaneous execution of memory items (fuel control switches OFF, then ON; deploy RAT) due to assumed engine malfunction
In contrast to mistakenly shutting down the wrong engine after having correctly diagnosed the problem as per SOP, this would require not only a simple error in execution but a counter-intuitive unilateral action immediately after takeoff against basic principles of SOP or CRM.
2. No indications whatsoever of an intentional shutdown for nefarious reasons
(Would also be inconsistent with the content of the alleged mayday call.)
VII.
Malfunction/mishandling of the fuel cutoff switches (most recent)
1.
Wear or improper operation of the switches, so that they do not lock but can shift back into the OFF position.
Argued to be impossible due to robust switch design, preventing switch release in any other than a locked position.
Actuation of the switches by an item placed before them which was pushed onto the switches by retarding thrust levers seems equally unlikely due to force required to pull the switches out of the locked position.
2.
Spilled drink leading to short in the wiring
Hardly conceivable that before takeoff open liquid containers would be placed anywhere where they could spill onto the pedestal.
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FullWings
June 20, 2025, 09:43:00 GMT permalink Post: 11906781 |
Although it seems inconceivable that they did not firewall the thrust levers, it will be interesting to know if and when this happened. The aircraft clearly did not have enough thrust for the flight regime with the gear extended etc. But does this imply a total loss of thrust on both engines?
I would be very surprised if the thrust levers were not firewalled early on, in fact with such determination that they went through the instrument panel! On a wider observation, professional commercial pilots like the Air India ones in this accident go through regular simulator training according their own SOPs, which when dealing with things like thrust loss during or after the takeoff roll are likely pretty similar or even identical to the manufacturer\x92s guidelines; if they did differ it would be because they were more conservative in application. Boeing standard is to do nothing until 200\x92AGL other than control the aircraft in yaw, pitch and roll. Above 400\x92AGL you can start doing some drills, if applicable. This assumes, of course, that you can get to these heights in the first place. I would put forward that in this accident, the crew immediately found themselves in what Boeing call \x93Special situations\x94 or \x93Situations beyond the scope of normal procedures\x94. We don\x92t know yet whether there was a thrust loss or total failure at the outset; we don\x92t know if the RAT deployed due to sensed failures or control operation. As a trainer, the captain would have known the implications of actioning the dual engine failure memory items, especially near the ground, but if you\x92ve tried everything else and are still going down then what is there to lose? This is not to suggest this is what happened, just to fill in the blanks in terms of possibilities. Whatever did occur likely put them outside the realm of SOPs in short order, which is a difficult situation at the best of times, especially as for your whole flying career you have been trained and assessed at your ability to conform to those SOPs as accurately as possible in the takeoff phase. |
HundredPercentPlease
June 21, 2025, 07:48:00 GMT permalink Post: 11907554 |
With EBT in play, every time I'm in the sim over the last few years and the airspeed does something "odd", the UAS drill is jumped on. On takeoff the training seems to be: when the airspeed is clearly "wrong", apply TOGA/15 (because it's guaranteed safe), do rest of memory items, diagnose, etc etc.
From the videos, it kind of looks like TOGA/15 was applied here but with rapidly reducing thrust. PM would be rapidly realising that thrust was the issue, but you have seconds to resolve it. |
CharlieMike
June 21, 2025, 08:23:00 GMT permalink Post: 11907570 |
EFATO handling is similar on most types too\x85in essence, contain any yaw, rotate, get the gear up and either trim it out or (787) let the aircraft trim it out\x85.AP in and once safely climbing away at a defined altitude diagnose followed by memory items if applicable. 787 you don\x92t action any drills until above 400ft so it would be extremely unlikely this crew actually got the stage of touching a fuel control switch. |
CharlieMike
June 21, 2025, 08:43:00 GMT permalink Post: 11907580 |
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Aerospace101
June 21, 2025, 08:56:00 GMT permalink Post: 11907591 |
The issues with the "they shut down the wrong engine" theory:
1. No asymmetry evidence with flight path deviation. No roll, no yaw effects 2. No rudder inputs visible. 3. No crew should be doing memory items below 400ft. Boeing requires each crew member confirm together memory item switch/control selections. 4. Non-normal gear truck tilt position, a one engine failure should not affect the C hydraulics. As per (3) gear would be selected Up before any memory actions. The evidence so far is an almost simultaneous dual engine failure, which rules out alot of other theories. |
lpvapproach
June 21, 2025, 13:50:00 GMT permalink Post: 11907770 |
The issues with the "they shut down the wrong engine" theory:
1. No asymmetry evidence with flight path deviation. No roll, no yaw effects 2. No rudder inputs visible. 3. No crew should be doing memory items below 400ft. Boeing requires each crew member confirm together memory item switch/control selections. 4. Non-normal gear truck tilt position, a one engine failure should not affect the C hydraulics. As per (3) gear would be selected Up before any memory actions. The evidence so far is an almost simultaneous dual engine failure, which rules out alot of other theories. |
Fursty Ferret
July 09, 2025, 11:00:00 GMT permalink Post: 11918308 |
For what it's worth, if the fuel control switches were rapidly cycled as per the dual engine failure memory actions, the engines should both have restarted and recovered full thrust within a matter of seconds. This is part of the certification and Rolls Royce publish the procedure (unofficially) as a last-ditch attempt to recover an engine that's experiencing a locked-in surge condition.
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OliTom
July 09, 2025, 11:07:00 GMT permalink Post: 11918314 |
For what it's worth, if the fuel control switches were rapidly cycled as per the dual engine failure memory actions, the engines should both have restarted and recovered full thrust within a matter of seconds. This is part of the certification and Rolls Royce publish the procedure (unofficially) as a last-ditch attempt to recover an engine that's experiencing a locked-in surge condition.
Last edited by OliTom; 9th July 2025 at 11:24 . |
Propellerhead
July 09, 2025, 12:32:00 GMT permalink Post: 11918361 |
For what it's worth, if the fuel control switches were rapidly cycled as per the dual engine failure memory actions, the engines should both have restarted and recovered full thrust within a matter of seconds. This is part of the certification and Rolls Royce publish the procedure (unofficially) as a last-ditch attempt to recover an engine that's experiencing a locked-in surge condition.
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Magplug
July 09, 2025, 14:45:00 GMT permalink Post: 11918435 |
As a 787 operator I can observe a couple of things......
Deliberately cycling the Engine Cutoff switches just after rotate, in response to a dual power loss is inconceivable. You are way too low and slow for it to have any effect and your attention is better devoted to aiming for the flattest area ahead to crash into. Commencing the Dual Eng Fail/Stall checklist memory items is conditional upon both engines being at sub-idle and the aircraft being within the in-flight relight envelope. Neither of those conditions existed. The flight recorder will witness what came first - Power loss or Start Switches to Cutoff? It seems the 'Third Contingency' that I alluded to about a thousand posts ago, sadly now seems likely. Given the iron-grip that the government appears to have over the media, one wonders how the truth will ever surface? |
skwdenyer
July 10, 2025, 00:08:00 GMT permalink Post: 11918713 |
As a 787 operator I can observe a couple of things......
Deliberately cycling the Engine Cutoff switches just after rotate, in response to a dual power loss is inconceivable. You are way too low and slow for it to have any effect and your attention is better devoted to aiming for the flattest area ahead to crash into. Commencing the Dual Eng Fail/Stall checklist memory items is conditional upon both engines being at sub-idle and the aircraft being within the in-flight relight envelope. Neither of those conditions existed. |
cLeArIcE
July 10, 2025, 06:42:00 GMT permalink Post: 11918780 |
It is not inconceivable to me that a human being who THINKS they've had a dual engine failure at possibly the worst time imaginable (correctly or incorrectly) and has not taken the time to confirm, or take it all in and has immediately launched into memory items. I could certainly foresee one being rather startled by the energy state and the rapidly approaching buildings.
I'm not saying that this happened to this crew but it certainly could happen to someone. People do weird !!!! under high stress. There is an initial "oh !!!!, what's going on" then the training kicks in. Often at super fast rate and the challenge becomes slowing it all down. The bloody master warning on the Airbus for smoke in the forward Lav used to get me everytime. Was always at night over the ocean too. |
Lead Balloon
July 10, 2025, 08:26:00 GMT permalink Post: 11918827 |
It is not inconceivable to me that a human being who THINKS they've had a dual engine failure at possibly the worst time imaginable (correctly or incorrectly) and has not taken the time to confirm, or take it all in and has immediately launched into memory items. I could certainly foresee one being rather startled by the energy state and the rapidly approaching buildings.
I'm not saying that this happened to this crew but it certainly could happen to someone. People do weird !!!! under high stress. There is an initial "oh !!!!, what's going on" then the training kicks in. Often at super fast rate and the challenge becomes slowing it all down. The bloody master warning on the Airbus for smoke in the forward Lav used to get me everytime. Was always at night over the ocean too. ![]() |