July 12, 2025, 05:05:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11920204
A number of years ago I gave a talk to Aviation trade Association about pilot suicide. This was shortly after the Germanwings incident. There were a surprising number of documented incidents, far more than I had appreciated. And these were just the ones where there were some certainty of the causation. There were many others that were left unexplained.
For context, I'm a qualified medical doctor, psychotherapist and general Aviation pilot. I'd be very interested as to what background checks they are doing on the psychological state of both pilots. In India I doubt there are robust psychological support services for people that are struggling with mental health issues. Maybe we will never know the full story of what happened or perhaps more pertinently, why it happened.
For context, I'm a qualified medical doctor, psychotherapist and general Aviation pilot. I'd be very interested as to what background checks they are doing on the psychological state of both pilots. In India I doubt there are robust psychological support services for people that are struggling with mental health issues. Maybe we will never know the full story of what happened or perhaps more pertinently, why it happened.
July 12, 2025, 19:51:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11920786
Indeed. The inclusion of a psychologist does not necessarily mean that the human factor being considered relates to mental health. Psychologists study, and might contribute, on issues relating to human-computer interactions, perception, workload, decision-making, cognitive biases etc.
July 12, 2025, 22:01:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11920874
I don't know why you're singling out India for alleged inadequate mental health monitoring of their pilots when the worst case of dereliction of duty occurred with a German airline. I was expecting to see a massive class action law suit after that followed by the subsequent bankruptcy of that airline.
July 13, 2025, 13:42:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11921331
I agree with sabenaboy.
The subject of pilot suicide is not distasteful, but for many it is taboo.
I understand this. Many historical accidents caused by pilot incompetence could well have been quickly labelled as suicide, only for their errors to show up in the subsequent investigation.
Looking for a rational explanation is a normal way to go, and suicide is not rational in most peoples' eyes.
However, this tragic event looks highly probable to have been caused by a deliberate action. And shutting off the fuel controls immediately following rotation is impossible to justify as an accidental move.
I remember calling the German Wings accident as a likely suicide event as soon as I heard about it. Nevertheless I was open to hostility and recriminations on this website for quite a few days, once my carefully-worded contribution was not deleted.
I do wonder if any further information can be gleaned from the FDR, which has not already been shared. I hope so. And of course, the CVR contents require further analysis.
Nobody in their right minds takes any pleasure, woke or not, from learning of a suicide, particularly one that involves the death of many innocent people.
The subject of pilot suicide is not distasteful, but for many it is taboo.
I understand this. Many historical accidents caused by pilot incompetence could well have been quickly labelled as suicide, only for their errors to show up in the subsequent investigation.
Looking for a rational explanation is a normal way to go, and suicide is not rational in most peoples' eyes.
However, this tragic event looks highly probable to have been caused by a deliberate action. And shutting off the fuel controls immediately following rotation is impossible to justify as an accidental move.
I remember calling the German Wings accident as a likely suicide event as soon as I heard about it. Nevertheless I was open to hostility and recriminations on this website for quite a few days, once my carefully-worded contribution was not deleted.
I do wonder if any further information can be gleaned from the FDR, which has not already been shared. I hope so. And of course, the CVR contents require further analysis.
Nobody in their right minds takes any pleasure, woke or not, from learning of a suicide, particularly one that involves the death of many innocent people.
Mental impairment is a huge and not well understood spectrum. Sometimes it\x92s dark and criminal; sometimes it\x92s long term disease related (Alzheimer\x92s, etc), sometimes acute (stroke), sometimes chemical and mental imbalance developing over a shorter time period (like the US Captain who had a paranoid like episode inflight, or the jumpseater in the US trying to shut down both engines but restrained by crew). In many cases it\x92s impossible to see coming and doesn\x92t even have to involve criminal/homicidal/psychotic intent. It can simply be a stroke or episode which causes confusion and someone to start grabbing at switches best left untouched \x97 perhaps while thinking he is doing the correct actions. So one can not ignore the possibility that a crew member suffered some sort of cognitive episode resulting in shutting off the FCS; perhaps thinking he was back in the chocks for a few minutes. And then forgetting he\x92d done it.
These events may be exacerbated by the huge stigma associated with a pilot attempting to seek counseling or mental health help (even for a relatively small problem which can untreated develop into a much larger one). Out of fear of repercussions of falling into that medical \x91black hole\x92 and trying to get re-certified for even minor mental health glitches.
July 13, 2025, 20:28:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11921619
I meant the Captain was the PM in this case…
You are quite right, we don’t have any evidence of who did what, other than those actions and words that were said and done. That’s why we discuss based on our everyday experiences in the very job they were doing to at least come up with a plausible explanation, right?
You are quite right, we don’t have any evidence of who did what, other than those actions and words that were said and done. That’s why we discuss based on our everyday experiences in the very job they were doing to at least come up with a plausible explanation, right?
I would only add that MH370 doesn't tell us anything in this case, simply because there is no actual evidence.
July 14, 2025, 02:12:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11921825
Air India pilot’s medical records examined after mental health claims
https://www.yahoo.com/news/air-india...201000638.html
July 14, 2025, 08:35:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11921957
July 14, 2025, 08:51:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11921972
July 14, 2025, 09:57:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11922016
This is the summary
Air India crash investigators are examining the medical records of the pilot whose plane crashed in Ahmedabad amid claims that he suffered from depression and mental health problems.
Captain Sumeet Sabharwal, who was 56, was months from retirement but had been considering leaving the airline to look after his elderly father following the death of his mother in 2022, The Telegraph can reveal.
The pilot, who had more than 15,000 flying hours to his name, last undertook a Class I medical exam on Sept 5 last year.
His records have been handed to investigators, whose initial report said their focus was on the actions of the pilots rather than a technical fault with the plane. The Airline Pilots’ Association of India said it rejected the “tone and direction” of the inquiry.
Captain Mohan Ranganathan, a leading aviation safety expert in India, told The Telegraph: “I have heard from several Air India pilots who told me he had some depression and mental health issues. He had taken time off from flying in the last three to four years. He had taken medical leave for that.”
Captain Sumeet Sabharwal, who was 56, was months from retirement but had been considering leaving the airline to look after his elderly father following the death of his mother in 2022, The Telegraph can reveal.
The pilot, who had more than 15,000 flying hours to his name, last undertook a Class I medical exam on Sept 5 last year.
His records have been handed to investigators, whose initial report said their focus was on the actions of the pilots rather than a technical fault with the plane. The Airline Pilots’ Association of India said it rejected the “tone and direction” of the inquiry.
Captain Mohan Ranganathan, a leading aviation safety expert in India, told The Telegraph: “I have heard from several Air India pilots who told me he had some depression and mental health issues. He had taken time off from flying in the last three to four years. He had taken medical leave for that.”
July 14, 2025, 10:21:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11922045
Air India pilot\x92s medical records examined after mental health claims
https://www.yahoo.com/news/air-india...201000638.html
I took the time to read the entire article. (It spent some time discussing how he balanced his work schedule with the need to take care of his aged father, and that he might be near the retirement decision point...).
Here are a few other bits from the article:
So they looked at his medical records, and found nothing amiss. How is that worthy of a headline?
Seems par for the course.
What were your takeaways from that article?
Here are a few other bits from the article:
\x93He did take bereavement leave in 2022 following his mother\x92s death, and his medical records were submitted as part of the investigation, and the preliminary report did not find anything noteworthy,\x94 he said.
The Indian Commercial Pilots\x92 Association said the crew of flight 171 had acted in line with their training and responsibilities under challenging conditions. It strongly rejected insinuations of malpractice, saying it was deeply disturbed by the speculation.
What were your takeaways from that article?
July 14, 2025, 19:04:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11922436
Upfront: Sorry for my initial post on the topic, like some other people in this thread it obviously touches a nerve and was rightly removed for exceeding the rules of civil discussion.
This is my attempt to shed a bit of light on why I find pushing theories of suicide very objectionable at this point in time.
Let's actually run some numbers here.
https://www.boeing.com/content/dam/b...df/statsum.pdf gives us a nice statistic over the last 20 years and also has this little tidbit:
"965 million departures since 1959. 63% of those departures were on Boeing airplanes. (609 million on Boeing airplanes)"
For the last 20 years I'd eyeball an average of between 20-25 million departures per year. So 400-500 million flights in just 20 years. Maybe let that sink in for a moment. We have doubled the total number of flights in the 20 years since 2005.
In that timeframe we have:
Nov 2013, LAM 470, 33 fatalities, confirmed by CVR
Mar 2015, Germanwings 9525, 150 fatalities, confirmed by CVR
There are additionally these:
Mar 2014, MH370, 239 fatalities, no final report, no information available
Mar 2022, CES5735, 132 fatalities, no final report, media reports claiming pilot suicide, strong counter by the investigating agency: "CAAC has previously said speculation surrounding the crash had "gravely misled the public" and interfered with accident investigation work."
Both confirmed cases in that time have a very clear pattern that does in no way resemble the Air India Crash.
Even beyond that timeframe no confirmed pilot suicide involved any measures against discovery by the departed.
There is speculation regarding Silk Air 185 because the CVR failed to record the relevant part of the accident, but it is firmly in the "debated" category.
But we can ignore all of that. Even if we put any theoretically possible Pilot Suicide into the equation one fact remains: The actual likeliness of pilot suicide has not changed. There were 2 confirmed prior to 2005 and 2 after and 2 suspected prior to 2005 2 and after. And that is despite a higher sensitivity and a more stressful job as well as significantly increased environmental stress factors. Obviously we are talking about, statistically speaking, numbers too small for analysis, but all of this is actually well within expected parameters. The recent years have seen a focus on mental health in general in many countries worldwide, and mental healthcare availability is growing in most countries. And here the US is a great example as far as aviation goes: https://casten.house.gov/media/press...tion-committee With this bill whose merit can be assessed by the people supporting it: " The legislation is endorsed by the Pilot Mental Health Campaign, Air Line Pilots Association, Airlines for America, the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, National Flight Training Alliance, the National Business Aviation Association, and NetJets Association of Shared Aircraft Pilots (NJASAP)."
Summing up I would like to point out that there are good indications that there are no mental health issues involved here. Taking the aforementioned accidents as reference the issues were usually quite obvious once any kind of scrutiny was placed on the individuals involved. The individuals also made little to no effort of concealment in all confirmed cases and while the absence of evidence can be interpreted as indicative of successful concealment it is not proof and cannot be treated as such. Especially when it is documented that the overwhelming majority of suicides do not involve any element of concealment, and the psychological mechanisms at work commonly preclude any thought about what happens after, as far as medical study of the issue is concerned. This does not mean it does not happen, cases of concealment attempts or even partial successes are well documented, but it is a lot less prevalent. In this case estimates range mostly from between 10% to 30% of all suicides being misreported as unintentional injury with massive variation depending on multiple factors like country, ethnicity, gender, sexual identity, etc.
In final conclusion: Anyone can make mistakes. It is possible one or both of these pilots made a mistake. It is also possible that a combination of bad luck lead to an alignment of the holes. In my opinion the inability to receive urgently required medical support is as much a hole in the Swiss Cheese as the worst maintenance or design error imaginable. We know from the previous discussions in all threads on this Accident and the report itself that the pilots were flying their aircraft until they ran out of time and airspace. One cannot demand more from a human being, no matter what the final cause is ultimately determined to be.
This is my attempt to shed a bit of light on why I find pushing theories of suicide very objectionable at this point in time.
https://www.boeing.com/content/dam/b...df/statsum.pdf gives us a nice statistic over the last 20 years and also has this little tidbit:
"965 million departures since 1959. 63% of those departures were on Boeing airplanes. (609 million on Boeing airplanes)"
For the last 20 years I'd eyeball an average of between 20-25 million departures per year. So 400-500 million flights in just 20 years. Maybe let that sink in for a moment. We have doubled the total number of flights in the 20 years since 2005.
In that timeframe we have:
Nov 2013, LAM 470, 33 fatalities, confirmed by CVR
Mar 2015, Germanwings 9525, 150 fatalities, confirmed by CVR
There are additionally these:
Mar 2014, MH370, 239 fatalities, no final report, no information available
Mar 2022, CES5735, 132 fatalities, no final report, media reports claiming pilot suicide, strong counter by the investigating agency: "CAAC has previously said speculation surrounding the crash had "gravely misled the public" and interfered with accident investigation work."
Both confirmed cases in that time have a very clear pattern that does in no way resemble the Air India Crash.
Even beyond that timeframe no confirmed pilot suicide involved any measures against discovery by the departed.
There is speculation regarding Silk Air 185 because the CVR failed to record the relevant part of the accident, but it is firmly in the "debated" category.
But we can ignore all of that. Even if we put any theoretically possible Pilot Suicide into the equation one fact remains: The actual likeliness of pilot suicide has not changed. There were 2 confirmed prior to 2005 and 2 after and 2 suspected prior to 2005 2 and after. And that is despite a higher sensitivity and a more stressful job as well as significantly increased environmental stress factors. Obviously we are talking about, statistically speaking, numbers too small for analysis, but all of this is actually well within expected parameters. The recent years have seen a focus on mental health in general in many countries worldwide, and mental healthcare availability is growing in most countries. And here the US is a great example as far as aviation goes: https://casten.house.gov/media/press...tion-committee With this bill whose merit can be assessed by the people supporting it: " The legislation is endorsed by the Pilot Mental Health Campaign, Air Line Pilots Association, Airlines for America, the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, National Flight Training Alliance, the National Business Aviation Association, and NetJets Association of Shared Aircraft Pilots (NJASAP)."
Summing up I would like to point out that there are good indications that there are no mental health issues involved here. Taking the aforementioned accidents as reference the issues were usually quite obvious once any kind of scrutiny was placed on the individuals involved. The individuals also made little to no effort of concealment in all confirmed cases and while the absence of evidence can be interpreted as indicative of successful concealment it is not proof and cannot be treated as such. Especially when it is documented that the overwhelming majority of suicides do not involve any element of concealment, and the psychological mechanisms at work commonly preclude any thought about what happens after, as far as medical study of the issue is concerned. This does not mean it does not happen, cases of concealment attempts or even partial successes are well documented, but it is a lot less prevalent. In this case estimates range mostly from between 10% to 30% of all suicides being misreported as unintentional injury with massive variation depending on multiple factors like country, ethnicity, gender, sexual identity, etc.
In final conclusion: Anyone can make mistakes. It is possible one or both of these pilots made a mistake. It is also possible that a combination of bad luck lead to an alignment of the holes. In my opinion the inability to receive urgently required medical support is as much a hole in the Swiss Cheese as the worst maintenance or design error imaginable. We know from the previous discussions in all threads on this Accident and the report itself that the pilots were flying their aircraft until they ran out of time and airspace. One cannot demand more from a human being, no matter what the final cause is ultimately determined to be.
July 14, 2025, 19:47:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11922454
Upfront: Sorry for my initial post on the topic, like some other people in this thread it obviously touches a nerve and was rightly removed for exceeding the rules of civil discussion.
This is my attempt to shed a bit of light on why I find pushing theories of suicide very objectionable at this point in time.
Let's actually run some numbers here.
https://www.boeing.com/content/dam/b...df/statsum.pdf gives us a nice statistic over the last 20 years and also has this little tidbit:
"965 million departures since 1959. 63% of those departures were on Boeing airplanes. (609 million on Boeing airplanes)"
For the last 20 years I'd eyeball an average of between 20-25 million departures per year. So 400-500 million flights in just 20 years. Maybe let that sink in for a moment. We have doubled the total number of flights in the 20 years since 2005.
In that timeframe we have:
Nov 2013, LAM 470, 33 fatalities, confirmed by CVR
Mar 2015, Germanwings 9525, 150 fatalities, confirmed by CVR
There are additionally these:
Mar 2014, MH370, 239 fatalities, no final report, no information available
Mar 2022, CES5735, 132 fatalities, no final report, media reports claiming pilot suicide, strong counter by the investigating agency: "CAAC has previously said speculation surrounding the crash had "gravely misled the public" and interfered with accident investigation work."
Both confirmed cases in that time have a very clear pattern that does in no way resemble the Air India Crash.
Even beyond that timeframe no confirmed pilot suicide involved any measures against discovery by the departed.
There is speculation regarding Silk Air 185 because the CVR failed to record the relevant part of the accident, but it is firmly in the "debated" category.
But we can ignore all of that. Even if we put any theoretically possible Pilot Suicide into the equation one fact remains: The actual likeliness of pilot suicide has not changed. There were 2 confirmed prior to 2005 and 2 after and 2 suspected prior to 2005 2 and after. And that is despite a higher sensitivity and a more stressful job as well as significantly increased environmental stress factors. Obviously we are talking about, statistically speaking, numbers too small for analysis, but all of this is actually well within expected parameters. The recent years have seen a focus on mental health in general in many countries worldwide, and mental healthcare availability is growing in most countries. And here the US is a great example as far as aviation goes: https://casten.house.gov/media/press...tion-committee With this bill whose merit can be assessed by the people supporting it: " The legislation is endorsed by the Pilot Mental Health Campaign, Air Line Pilots Association, Airlines for America, the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, National Flight Training Alliance, the National Business Aviation Association, and NetJets Association of Shared Aircraft Pilots (NJASAP)."
Summing up I would like to point out that there are good indications that there are no mental health issues involved here. Taking the aforementioned accidents as reference the issues were usually quite obvious once any kind of scrutiny was placed on the individuals involved. The individuals also made little to no effort of concealment in all confirmed cases and while the absence of evidence can be interpreted as indicative of successful concealment it is not proof and cannot be treated as such. Especially when it is documented that the overwhelming majority of suicides do not involve any element of concealment, and the psychological mechanisms at work commonly preclude any thought about what happens after, as far as medical study of the issue is concerned. This does not mean it does not happen, cases of concealment attempts or even partial successes are well documented, but it is a lot less prevalent. In this case estimates range mostly from between 10% to 30% of all suicides being misreported as unintentional injury with massive variation depending on multiple factors like country, ethnicity, gender, sexual identity, etc.
In final conclusion: Anyone can make mistakes. It is possible one or both of these pilots made a mistake. It is also possible that a combination of bad luck lead to an alignment of the holes. In my opinion the inability to receive urgently required medical support is as much a hole in the Swiss Cheese as the worst maintenance or design error imaginable. We know from the previous discussions in all threads on this Accident and the report itself that the pilots were flying their aircraft until they ran out of time and airspace. One cannot demand more from a human being, no matter what the final cause is ultimately determined to be.
This is my attempt to shed a bit of light on why I find pushing theories of suicide very objectionable at this point in time.
Let's actually run some numbers here.
https://www.boeing.com/content/dam/b...df/statsum.pdf gives us a nice statistic over the last 20 years and also has this little tidbit:
"965 million departures since 1959. 63% of those departures were on Boeing airplanes. (609 million on Boeing airplanes)"
For the last 20 years I'd eyeball an average of between 20-25 million departures per year. So 400-500 million flights in just 20 years. Maybe let that sink in for a moment. We have doubled the total number of flights in the 20 years since 2005.
In that timeframe we have:
Nov 2013, LAM 470, 33 fatalities, confirmed by CVR
Mar 2015, Germanwings 9525, 150 fatalities, confirmed by CVR
There are additionally these:
Mar 2014, MH370, 239 fatalities, no final report, no information available
Mar 2022, CES5735, 132 fatalities, no final report, media reports claiming pilot suicide, strong counter by the investigating agency: "CAAC has previously said speculation surrounding the crash had "gravely misled the public" and interfered with accident investigation work."
Both confirmed cases in that time have a very clear pattern that does in no way resemble the Air India Crash.
Even beyond that timeframe no confirmed pilot suicide involved any measures against discovery by the departed.
There is speculation regarding Silk Air 185 because the CVR failed to record the relevant part of the accident, but it is firmly in the "debated" category.
But we can ignore all of that. Even if we put any theoretically possible Pilot Suicide into the equation one fact remains: The actual likeliness of pilot suicide has not changed. There were 2 confirmed prior to 2005 and 2 after and 2 suspected prior to 2005 2 and after. And that is despite a higher sensitivity and a more stressful job as well as significantly increased environmental stress factors. Obviously we are talking about, statistically speaking, numbers too small for analysis, but all of this is actually well within expected parameters. The recent years have seen a focus on mental health in general in many countries worldwide, and mental healthcare availability is growing in most countries. And here the US is a great example as far as aviation goes: https://casten.house.gov/media/press...tion-committee With this bill whose merit can be assessed by the people supporting it: " The legislation is endorsed by the Pilot Mental Health Campaign, Air Line Pilots Association, Airlines for America, the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, National Flight Training Alliance, the National Business Aviation Association, and NetJets Association of Shared Aircraft Pilots (NJASAP)."
Summing up I would like to point out that there are good indications that there are no mental health issues involved here. Taking the aforementioned accidents as reference the issues were usually quite obvious once any kind of scrutiny was placed on the individuals involved. The individuals also made little to no effort of concealment in all confirmed cases and while the absence of evidence can be interpreted as indicative of successful concealment it is not proof and cannot be treated as such. Especially when it is documented that the overwhelming majority of suicides do not involve any element of concealment, and the psychological mechanisms at work commonly preclude any thought about what happens after, as far as medical study of the issue is concerned. This does not mean it does not happen, cases of concealment attempts or even partial successes are well documented, but it is a lot less prevalent. In this case estimates range mostly from between 10% to 30% of all suicides being misreported as unintentional injury with massive variation depending on multiple factors like country, ethnicity, gender, sexual identity, etc.
In final conclusion: Anyone can make mistakes. It is possible one or both of these pilots made a mistake. It is also possible that a combination of bad luck lead to an alignment of the holes. In my opinion the inability to receive urgently required medical support is as much a hole in the Swiss Cheese as the worst maintenance or design error imaginable. We know from the previous discussions in all threads on this Accident and the report itself that the pilots were flying their aircraft until they ran out of time and airspace. One cannot demand more from a human being, no matter what the final cause is ultimately determined to be.
ANY Boeing pilot who grabs for the FCSs immediately after takeoff has SOME type of mental health issue. It might be suicidal, it might be cognitive, it might be a stroke, it might be some type of blood interruption to the brain, chemical imbalance, drug reaction, or whatever.
It’s not a simple mistake.
I’m not saying it’s necessary deliberate or homicidal (which it could be) but there is some type of impairment there. Everyone knows the consequences of shutting off a FCS or pulling a fire handle. The switches aren’t easily confused with others. Bumping them doesn’t cause them to go to cut off. And have dire consequences if actuated at the wrong time.
I guess there might theoretically be a way to snag them with loose clothing (like having a very frayed sweater with holes in the sleeve putting one’s arm in a really strange place) somehow and while pulling to free it manage to pull them out and down but I’m going to put this in the asteroid hitting earth category.
July 14, 2025, 20:46:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11922486
Which leads to a very unpleasant possibility that many people would rather not consider, and some even refuse to consider, despite there being at least one historical precedent that I can think of (a pilot for a particular airline many years ago who had an undiagnosed mental health condition and admitted to struggling with impulsive thoughts of shutting down all 4 engines on a B747).
July 14, 2025, 21:01:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11922500
I'm not surprised though it gets frustrating when folk start defaulting to the most remote possibilities instead of the more likely ones. The flight data recorder logged the fact that the switches were moved to cutoff, 1 second apart, very soon after airborne, then some seconds later moved back to run. None of that fits with any realistically conceivable mechanical failure nor automated system fault. Both of those are physical actions taken by a pilot. The first action was to shut them down, and the second action was an attempt to start them up again (tragically close to being successful). Nor does it fit with a muscle memory mistake or confusion with another switch.
Which leads to a very unpleasant possibility that many people would rather not consider, and some even refuse to consider, despite there being at least one historical precedent that I can think of (a pilot for a particular airline many years ago who had an undiagnosed mental health condition and admitted to struggling with impulsive thoughts of shutting down all 4 engines on a B747).
Which leads to a very unpleasant possibility that many people would rather not consider, and some even refuse to consider, despite there being at least one historical precedent that I can think of (a pilot for a particular airline many years ago who had an undiagnosed mental health condition and admitted to struggling with impulsive thoughts of shutting down all 4 engines on a B747).
July 15, 2025, 06:26:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11922684
His mother died and he took some time off to grief. He later returned to flying status and was openly contemplating early retirement to spend time with his Dad. There is absolutely nothing indicating any sort of mental health issues. Post accident it is normal to pull medical records. There can be many reasons for this, be it toxicology coming back weird due to the fire or any of a myriad other reasons imaginable that require reference data.
Also note that the PF was the FO not the Captain and that the report does not say which pilot said what.
This was discussed multiple times already. The report does not mention it in any way shape or form. There is no reason to believe the report would leave out such a crucial detail.
July 15, 2025, 07:15:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11922704
Apparently
mentally healthy. Getting a medical signed off isn't exactly an iron-clad guarantee of mental health, but you're right that some commentators are trying to sensationalise the consequences of normal but testing life events.
July 15, 2025, 08:00:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11922728
So everything beyond the bereavement leave is based on statements by one of the many "experts" opining publicly for clout or money based on rumors from people who have no way of knowing what they are talking about. The list of baseless false statements by those experts is getting a bit long. If there was reason to believe Pilot Suicide we would expect Law Enforcement to be involved and the homes of both pilots to have been searched. Either this was done completely evading public notice, which I find hard to believe in such a high profile case, or it was not done at all. I find the latter option the more believable of the two.
There is no need to put any kind of emphasis on the "apparently" part. Obviously we are only looking in from the outside. But there is zero evidence for mental health issues and several indicators for this to not be the case. Taking time off to grief for a parent is a healthy and normal way to deal with a tragic life event like this. It shows that the Captain was both emotionally and financially stable enough to assess and prioritize his personal needs.
Again: Human Error is quite obviously a leading theory right now based on the preliminary report. Ascribing any kind of intent not based on factual information is not a good idea.
July 15, 2025, 09:08:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11922762
S
o everything beyond the bereavement leave is based on statements by one of the many "experts" opining publicly for clout or money based on rumors from people who have no way of knowing what they are talking about. The list of baseless false statements by those experts is getting a bit long. If there was reason to believe Pilot Suicide we would expect Law Enforcement to be involved and the homes of both pilots to have been searched. Either this was done completely evading public notice, which I find hard to believe in such a high profile case, or it was not done at all. I find the latter option the more believable of the two.
There is no need to put any kind of emphasis on the "apparently" part. Obviously we are only looking in from the outside. But there is zero evidence for mental health issues and several indicators for this to not be the case. Taking time off to grief for a parent is a healthy and normal way to deal with a tragic life event like this. It shows that the Captain was both emotionally and financially stable enough to assess and prioritize his personal needs.
There is no need to put any kind of emphasis on the "apparently" part. Obviously we are only looking in from the outside. But there is zero evidence for mental health issues and several indicators for this to not be the case. Taking time off to grief for a parent is a healthy and normal way to deal with a tragic life event like this. It shows that the Captain was both emotionally and financially stable enough to assess and prioritize his personal needs.
July 15, 2025, 16:16:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11923060
I'm not saying pilot suicide is common, its exceedingly rare. But the likelihood of this cooked up scenario that you would have to come up with is infinitesimally small (i would say impossible but nothing is impossible). It literally has never in modern day aviation happened, and we would probably have to fly for hundreds more years to even possibly approach a likelihood of a single event happening. Suicides while rare have happened and not just 1.
Again I'm not even saying its suicide, you prob may only know if you heard the CVR and even then their could be a question. What I'm saying is anyone downplaying that as an option because it's "rare" but then goes down the path of concocting some crazy failure scenario has now come up with a situation that is orders of magnitude more improbable, just because its uncomfortable for them to think of the suicide as being a possibility.
Again I'm not even saying its suicide, you prob may only know if you heard the CVR and even then their could be a question. What I'm saying is anyone downplaying that as an option because it's "rare" but then goes down the path of concocting some crazy failure scenario has now come up with a situation that is orders of magnitude more improbable, just because its uncomfortable for them to think of the suicide as being a possibility.
I can't say I'm enamored of statistics much, because there's always room for the unexpected/unplanned/unthought of, but the things that puzzle me in this situation is that we don't have any evidence of aircraft faults or failures that could contribute to the circumstances of this accident, yet we also have no indications of medical issues with either pilot, and no historical pointers to the kind of mental health issues which could explain what happened. We also have an accident which is highly improbable as a suicide method, and switches that really are hugely UNlikey to have 'transitioned' to OFF on their own.
We do have lots of noise from media sources claiming knowledge which seems likely not to actually exist - if as one 'expert' claimed, the captain was known for mental health and/or behavioural issues - how does he know and the investigating team don't? And much uncertainty, coupled with sparsity of factual knowledge among the rest of us, which leads to wild theories feeding on themselves.
Personally, I'm not buying pilot suicide because it's such a totally improbable way to do it in the psychological sense - though I could see how it might have been the manifestation of an ideation, which was jerked back to reality by being asked why he pulled the switches. Ideations are a form of fantasy so can lead almost anywhere because the person doesn't really mean them to.
But there's also the potential for psychoses in one of the pilots, which often remain disguised and unknown, but can result in highly egregious behaviours when triggered.
All in all though, there's not enough 'knowns' to really make sense of it, and while we may gain better insights further down the investigatory path, there's a possibility that even when we know the 'what' of what happened, we may never get near the 'why' it did.
July 15, 2025, 17:15:00 GMT
permalink Post: 11923095
And again, Germanwings is a terrible example. Different phase of flight, very typical behavior for suicide, being initiated alone in a relatively tranquil moment without external stresses and, most importantly, unobserved. While most suicides are not concealed they are almost always carried out in private with even the more public kinds usually having an element of isolation (person standing on bridge or other elevated platform). Unlike what many seem to believe here suicidal people do not lose their ability for rational reasoning. They are not acting irrational in their own mind. They have just arrived at the conclusion that they do not wish to continue living and are then acting out that decision in a sometimes terrifyingly rational manner. It is seen as irrational from the outside because we as observers obviously do not want anyone to die.
And even ignoring that, with the Germanwings incident it was known relatively quickly that the Copilot of the flight had mental health issues and was considering suicide. It. Does. Not. Fit.
And even ignoring that, with the Germanwings incident it was known relatively quickly that the Copilot of the flight had mental health issues and was considering suicide. It. Does. Not. Fit.