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Captain Fishy
2025-06-15T21:56:00 permalink Post: 11902882 |
Do not discount the mistaken early flap retraction scenario too easily. Mull on this:
PF commanded gear up on attaining positive rate of climb, fixating on the HUD. PM mistakenly raise flap lever from 5 to Flap 1 gate. Thrust reduced to Climb Thrust. Landing gear remained deployed. Massive loss of lift misidentified as loss of thrust. If any one pilot just had a dual engine failure scenario on a recent sim ride, brain and muscle memory would jump to loss of thrust in dual engine, prompting them to accomplish the recall memory items which called for both engine fuel control switches to CUTOFF and then RUN, and physically deployed the RAT. There would be immediate loss of thrust with the engine taking time to recover , if at all, at such low airspeed! The rest is left for Ppruners\x92 imagination.😖🥴😬 A loss of lift AND thrust at this critical juncture could have had caused this awful disaster. I think the data recorders have already revealed the cause but If it's this, then I don't think we will hear much anytime soon. |
Kraftstoffvondesibel
2025-06-15T22:06:00 permalink Post: 11902890 |
If you would read my post carefully you would know that my issue is that at the moment that the RAT is claimed to be heard and the plane is close the RAT is not seen in the frames. That comes much later when the plane is far away and pixelated. There is no ear witness. There is someone who claims to have heard hundreds of RAT deployments (not 500) and who has heard the audio. So yes, there is a brief RAT-like sound. But the evidence is too weak to base elaborate theories on.
Just putting this out there, since many might be unfamiliar with this, you included. 35 users liked this post. |
DIBO
2025-06-15T22:27:00 permalink Post: 11902910 |
But indeed, a lot of noise is being generated by some that continue to simply ignore the professional sound analysis provided already 600+ (surviving) posts ago, without any relevant counter-arguments or proof (other than some low quality video). (And I don't mind this sound analysis to be proven invalid, but then only with similar professional skills and counter arguments.) 5 users liked this post. |
StuntPilot
2025-06-15T22:34:00 permalink Post: 11902915 |
The audio analysis in this case isn't anything obscure or vague. The same software is used in courts all over the world every day. You can be pretty sure the same software in some iteration is used investigating CVRs all the time. It shows something emitting the exact same sonic signature as a B787 RAT went over the camera at the same speed as the Boeing 787 seen going over the camera. It isn't a broken fanblade, or a motorcycle passing by, that would give a completely different result. It literally means hundreds of thousands of datapoints fall into the exact same pattern. If it were anything else, that would be easy to observe. It is a much more accurate tool than watching heavily compressed video. It is the same software used in hollywood to surgically remove airplane noises from historical dramas, btw. At least until AI came along and took on that job about 2 years ago. . Just because you aren't familiar with it doesn't mean it isn't accurate.
Just putting this out there, since many might be unfamiliar with this, you included. 3 users liked this post. |
sevenfive
2025-06-15T22:45:00 permalink Post: 11902924 |
Experienced 777 driver. Have tried to solve the puzzle. Looked carefully at the video in this article many times - see below and use full screen.
I might see a small puff of smoke and a smoke-ring just before they pass the shed. Indications of en enginefailure. I also see the wings tilt briefly - a few degrees - towards left. Correct procedure after enginefailure is to tilt the wings about 3 degrees toward the engine that is still running. I also see them climb at a - it seems - too high angle for the actual conditions if engine has failed. That will kill the nescessary engineoutspeed in a few seconds and be hard to recover from. If - and I say if - they in this stressed situation managed to shot down the wrong engine following the engineout procedures the RAT would come out. That would probably preoccupy them so much they forget everything about gear and flaps.. It is a situation I believe most experienced 777 / 787 pilots would recognise as a possibility and would explain everything. But this is pure speculation. Lets wait and see what the investigation teams find out... https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/a...w-so-far-crash 3 users liked this post. |
EDML
2025-06-15T22:56:00 permalink Post: 11902933 |
Also there is no asymmetry visible in any of the videos. |
First_Principal
2025-06-15T23:22:00 permalink Post: 11902953 |
First of all Kraftstoffvondesibel and I did our work completely without knowledge of each other. We reached the same conclusions more or less, most likely using different software (I used four different methodologies) and in subsequent discussions between us we've found our specific results (frequency etc) match very closely - including the doppler shift that we've also both commented on. While this doesn't absolutely prove the RAT scenario (I was, at least initially, somewhat more circumspect on this matter as anyone reading my first post would find) it does go some distance towards reconciling our respective methodologies and outcomes. Given the confluence and discussion I am now more satisfied that the RAT was deployed than I was before - although for the reasons espoused earlier I totally recognise the [scientific] challenges to this view. In this regard I too would not 'mind' if our view regarding RAT deployment were proven incorrect. What Kraftstoffvondesibel and I have done is simply use a little science and apply a quantitative analysis to the available data that many had qualitatively argued over. One might hope that, amongst other things, it could have dispelled the RAT/no RAT question to some degree and reduce thread noise, but unfortunately it seems some haven't read the thread through, or perhaps lack analytical reasoning. This site isn't the place for a full academic paper+peer review and for me the real subject of this thread is the tragedy of AI 171 and what might determinable from what we know in the hope it will be useful to those closer to the coal face. If you are a physicist, scientist or engineer and have the capability then the same data we used is also available to you to do your own analysis. Should you do so we'd welcome hearing the outcome - whether it concurs with our results or not - as this is the scientific way. If you want to include the full nitty-gritty detail of how you've gone about then for a very small percentage of us that might be interesting, but it'd be peripheral to the main issue - and bear in mind that RAT deployment itself is merely an indicator of other potentially more serious issues. It is not likely to be the cause per se ! To conclude, I understand it's a long thread but as far as the RAT question is concerned, I'd encourage you to read the relevant posts at least and if you remain unconvinced, and you have the skills, then why not conduct your own analysis and let us know the results? Otherwise perhaps as a group we could move on from this, remembering that this is a terrible event which at the very least deserves informed useful discussion rather than wild and/or repetitive speculation. FP. 55 users liked this post. |
Kraftstoffvondesibel
2025-06-15T23:36:00 permalink Post: 11902967 |
Maybe you should describe your analysis then and present the data? I'm a physicist so chances are I might actually not be so unfamiliar. Please include an analysis of raw data quality, spectral resolution and binning as well. And don't state it is the 'exact same' as this is statistically impossible.
The latest techniques let us separate such things as reverbration from the source, when superimposing the reverberation/ambience and background noise of the AI crash urban environment on the clean, dead open field recording of the known B787 w/rat, they do indeed sound exactly the same to this very skilled and experienced listener. Although this is not courtesy of the computer analysis. It is just another angle of confirmation. All in all, i think this source audio is excellent. The source is an iphone, their mems based microphones, although noisy shows great spectral balance and is comparable to basic measurement microphones of professional application. There is plenty of information to analyse from in this sample. And again, I can't see it in the video either, and until I put on some really expensive headphones and fired up the software I was of a different opinion. I bowed to the science. Edit: I took an extra look, I am prepared to say the fall off at slightly above 16kHz is from the original recording, this is probably a limitation in the microphone, as it is not a hard cut-off before a 16kHz Nyquist frequency as it would be with a 32kHz sampling rate, there is dither noise from 16-20kHz fitting with the source being 16 bit. Last edited by Kraftstoffvondesibel; 15th Jun 2025 at 23:54 . 42 users liked this post. |
TachyonID
2025-06-15T23:57:00 permalink Post: 11902985 |
Four data points indicate RAT deployed
I don't believe I owe you anything, I believe this is done adequately previously and has already taken up enough time on this thread. I am of the opinion that we have shown the RAT being deployed satisfactory enough to be of use for speculation in this thread. I find repeated comments about the bad video being the only evidence a bit disrespectful, though.
The latest techniques let us separate such things as reverbration from the source, when superimposing the reverberation/ambience and background noise of the AI crash urban environment on the clean, dead open field recording of the known B787 w/rat, they do indeed sound exactly the same to this very skilled and experienced listener. Although this is not courtesy of the computer analysis. It is just another angle of confirmation. All in all, i think this source audio is excellent. The source is an iphone, their mems based microphones, although noisy shows great spectral balance and is comparable to basic measurement microphones of professional application. There is plenty of information to analyse from in this sample. And again, I can't see it in the video either, and until I put on some really expensive headphones and fired up the software I was of a different opinion. I bowed to the science. As is often the case "confirmation bias" is probably why he keeps trying to do the "reversion to authority" thing. He has some other theory, and nothing to back it up, so continues to claim he can't see the obvious pattern in the data. It's irrelevant, because there's really NO evidence to the contrary. And by now, there's now FOUR solid pieces of evidence that the RAT deployed, so your analysis appears to be correct. This includes the other "ballistic" analysis of the ascension, and subsequent descent, curve-- which indicates an approximately 100% loss of thrust from both engines. In such a scenario, the RAT automatically deploys. Audio, visual, witness and classical physics all support the conclusion that, more likely than not, the RAT deployed. The larger mystery, obviously, is the sight line through the swiss cheese that caused the chain of events resulting of Loss Of Thrust. We should hear the Preliminary within a month or so. 6 users liked this post. |
FullWings
2025-06-16T00:05:00 permalink Post: 11902993 |
OK, technical questions for those who might know the answers: I think many on this thread are expecting the DFDR data to give clear answers to what happened to this flight, but due to the likely electrical power loss, what would actually have been recorded?
AFAIK
the 787 DFDRs have an internal battery but if the power is off to the rest of the aeroplane, what data, if any, is going to make its way to the units? Is anything recorded while on battery power? Does the RAT coming online after a pause restore some of the recording functionality?
1 user liked this post. |
Sailvi767
2025-06-16T00:11:00 permalink Post: 11902995 |
Experienced 777 driver. Have tried to solve the puzzle. Looked carefully at the video in this article many times - see below and use full screen.
I might see a small puff of smoke and a smoke-ring just before they pass the shed. Indications of en enginefailure. I also see the wings tilt briefly - a few degrees - towards left. Correct procedure after enginefailure is to tilt the wings about 3 degrees toward the engine that is still running. I also see them climb at a - it seems - too high angle for the actual conditions if engine has failed. That will kill the nescessary engineoutspeed in a few seconds and be hard to recover from. If - and I say if - they in this stressed situation managed to shot down the wrong engine following the engineout procedures the RAT would come out. That would probably preoccupy them so much they forget everything about gear and flaps.. It is a situation I believe most experienced 777 / 787 pilots would recognise as a possibility and would explain everything. But this is pure speculation. Lets wait and see what the investigation teams find out... https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/a...w-so-far-crash 4 users liked this post. |
Muon71
2025-06-16T00:42:00 permalink Post: 11903011 |
...
All in all, i think this source audio is excellent. The source is an iphone, their mems based microphones, although noisy shows great spectral balance and is comparable to basic measurement microphones of professional application. There is plenty of information to analyse from in this sample. And again, I can't see it in the video either, and until I put on some really expensive headphones and fired up the software I was of a different opinion. I bowed to the science. Edit: I took an extra look, I am prepared to say the fall off at slightly above 16kHz is from the original recording, this is probably a limitation in the microphone, as it is not a hard cut-off before a 16kHz Nyquist frequency as it would be with a 32kHz sampling rate, there is dither noise from 16-20kHz fitting with the source being 16 bit. The cut-off at 16 kHz is typically caused by lossy audio compressions (AAC), not the microphone. In this case, the audio was compressed two times (first the iPhone, then the Twitter). A microphone does not simply cut all frequencies above the certain point. Also, this audio content is Mono (the same signal on both channels) - an additional loss of information, if the original recording was Stereo. 2 users liked this post. |
boeing_eng
2025-06-16T00:42:00 permalink Post: 11903012 |
I've ground tested countless RAT's on 757/767's over many years....
Having just watched (or more importantly listened to) the latest video by Captain Steeeve on YT, I'm fully confident the deployed RAT can be heard 9 users liked this post. |
grumpyoldgeek
2025-06-16T00:51:00 permalink Post: 11903014 |
Not trying to be a smart ass, but how do you "ground test" a RAT?
|
First_Principal
2025-06-16T00:57:00 permalink Post: 11903017 |
From the detail in this video: " Just a short video of the Boeing 787 RAT being driven by an attached hydraulic motor. This test is performed to check the RAT's hydraulic pump and electrical generator are functioning correctly. The motor that is bolted onto the back of the RAT is driven using an external hydraulic rig that is feeding the motor with hydraulic fluid at 4200psi at 40GPM ." FP. 22 users liked this post. |
ciclo
2025-06-16T00:58:00 permalink Post: 11903019 |
|
Capn Bloggs
2025-06-16T01:18:00 permalink Post: 11903027 |
Originally Posted by
Seven-Five
I might see a small puff of smoke and a smoke-ring just before they pass the shed. Indications of en enginefailure. I also see the wings tilt briefly - a few degrees - towards left. Correct procedure after enginefailure is to tilt the wings about 3 degrees toward the engine that is still running. I also see them climb at a - it seems - too high angle for the actual conditions if engine has failed. That will kill the nescessary engineoutspeed in a few seconds and be hard to recover from. If - and I say if - they in this stressed situation managed to shot down the wrong engine following the engineout procedures the RAT would come out. That would probably preoccupy them so much they forget everything about gear and flaps.. It is a situation I believe most experienced 777 / 787 pilots would recognise as a possibility and would explain everything.
Originally Posted by
T28
In that poster's defense, you will find that they joined PPRuNe in 2002, and their original profile entry was 767.
The upgrade to 777 between then and now is within reason. Increasingly, the posts in this thread are becoming more ridiculous as time goes on. The hampsterwheel bearings will soon explode. IMO it should be locked. 6 users liked this post. |
Pip_Pip
2025-06-16T02:21:00 permalink Post: 11903062 |
As one of the two authors who have offered an acoustic analysis of the AI 171 'RAT' video here I feel obliged to make some observations.
First of all Kraftstoffvondesibel and I did our work completely without knowledge of each other. We reached the same conclusions more or less, most likely using different software (I used four different methodologies) and in subsequent discussions between us we've found our specific results (frequency etc) match very closely - including the doppler shift that we've also both commented on. While this doesn't absolutely prove the RAT scenario (I was, at least initially, somewhat more circumspect on this matter as anyone reading my first post would find) it does go some distance towards reconciling our respective methodologies and outcomes. Given the confluence and discussion I am now more satisfied that the RAT was deployed than I was before - although for the reasons espoused earlier I totally recognise the [scientific] challenges to this view. In this regard I too would not 'mind' if our view regarding RAT deployment were proven incorrect. What Kraftstoffvondesibel and I have done is simply use a little science and apply a quantitative analysis to the available data that many had qualitatively argued over. One might hope that, amongst other things, it could have dispelled the RAT/no RAT question to some degree and reduce thread noise, but unfortunately it seems some haven't read the thread through, or perhaps lack analytical reasoning. This site isn't the place for a full academic paper+peer review and for me the real subject of this thread is the tragedy of AI 171 and what might determinable from what we know in the hope it will be useful to those closer to the coal face. If you are a physicist, scientist or engineer and have the capability then the same data we used is also available to you to do your own analysis. Should you do so we'd welcome hearing the outcome - whether it concurs with our results or not - as this is the scientific way. If you want to include the full nitty-gritty detail of how you've gone about then for a very small percentage of us that might be interesting, but it'd be peripheral to the main issue - and bear in mind that RAT deployment itself is merely an indicator of other potentially more serious issues. It is not likely to be the cause per se ! To conclude, I understand it's a long thread but as far as the RAT question is concerned, I'd encourage you to read the relevant posts at least and if you remain unconvinced, and you have the skills, then why not conduct your own analysis and let us know the results? Otherwise perhaps as a group we could move on from this, remembering that this is a terrible event which at the very least deserves informed useful discussion rather than wild and/or repetitive speculation. FP. Now, if you and Kraftstoffvondesibel wouldn't mind conducting similar audio analysis of a moped whizzing past, that might help to dispel one of the most popular competing theories. ![]() I appreciate the time taken to produce information that might help us advance our understanding. I am not qualified to mark your homework, but I can recognise that you have spent time on it, shown your workings, and self-reported the limitations. That sets you apart (from some) and earns my respect. (I just hope you haven't been proven wrong in the time it has taken me to post this...) 11 users liked this post. |
unworry
2025-06-16T03:43:00 permalink Post: 11903084 |
Experienced 777 driver. Have tried to solve the puzzle. Looked carefully at the video in this article many times - see below and use full screen.
I might see a small puff of smoke and a smoke-ring just before they pass the shed. Indications of en enginefailure. I also see the wings tilt briefly - a few degrees - towards left. Correct procedure after enginefailure is to tilt the wings about 3 degrees toward the engine that is still running. I also see them climb at a - it seems - too high angle for the actual conditions if engine has failed. That will kill the nescessary engineoutspeed in a few seconds and be hard to recover from. If - and I say if - they in this stressed situation managed to shot down the wrong engine following the engineout procedures the RAT would come out. That would probably preoccupy them so much they forget everything about gear and flaps.. It is a situation I believe most experienced 777 / 787 pilots would recognise as a possibility and would explain everything. But this is pure speculation. Lets wait and see what the investigation teams find out... https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/a...w-so-far-crash I originally wondered about that ... until an old colleague sent me this short clip of a triple kicking up dust rotating in the same location For your consideration: (20 second clip) 1 user liked this post. |
mechpowi
2025-06-16T05:24:00 permalink Post: 11903103 |
a slight more precise translation as a native speaker. \x93After take off it felt as if we were still in one place & not moving. Then the sound of the engines racing (common Indian term for revving of engines on bikes & cars with the clutch depressed) & then green & white lights came on in the cabin as we hit something.\x94 In my opinion the race sound he talking about sounds like engine surges if compared to race.
Engine surge is heard as series of lound bangs or fainter popping sounds. Engine RPM is not increasing during a surge. One source of a revving sound could be the RAT revving up. However it doesn\x92t match the timeline of the (potentially unreliable) witness report. Emergnecy lights and RAT are both activated by loss of main electric power. I would assume that the lights come on instantly and the RAT take some time to deploy before revving up. 1 user liked this post. |
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