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Hollywood1
July 12, 2025, 03:22:00 GMT permalink Post: 11920141 |
The Vr speed (155 kts) was achieved as per the EAFR at 08:08:35
UTC. The aircraft air/ground sensors transitioned to air mode, consistent with liftoff at 08:08:39 UTC. The aircraft achieved the maximum recorded airspeed of 180 Knots IAS at about 08:08:42 UTC and immediately thereafter, the Engine 1 and Engine 2 fuel cutoff switches transitioned from RUN to CUTOFF position one after another with a time gap of 01 sec. |
katekebo
July 12, 2025, 03:30:00 GMT permalink Post: 11920143 |
This is pure speculation but I can envision the following sequence of events that would match the timeline and the little we know from the CVR and sequence of events.
- While PF is concentrated on flying the airplane, PNF moves the switches from RUN to CUTOFF in quick succession (for whatever reason). - PF doesn't notice that the switches have been moved (again, he is concentrated on flying) but soon perceives the loss of thrust and sees a message on EICAS. - PF looks down to check throttle position. It takes him a couple seconds to realize that the switches are in CUTOFF position. - PF asks PNF (and his superior) "Why did you cut off the engines?" (or something similar). PNF anwers that he didn't (a lie, but we don't know if deliberate or just confusion / mental breakdown) - PF realizes that PNF is in a wrong mental state, and attempts to restart the engines. It takes him a couple of seconds to move both switches because his other hand is on the yoke trying to stabilize the airplane. - By then the airplane has lost too much energy for a successful recovery. One of the pilots calls MAYDAY because he knows that they are about to crash. This sequence would match the timeline between the initial fuel cutoff, and when the switches were moved back to run position, and would actually indicate great presence of mind and quick decision from the PF. Again, this is pure speculation but it would match well with the little information we have. |
13 others
July 12, 2025, 03:38:00 GMT permalink Post: 11920147 |
...The report mentions that the flight crew on the immediately prior flight had written up a "STAB POS XDCR" status message, and that troubleshooting was carried out. I wonder if the scenario could be that the accident crew received a Stabiliser EICAS message on or around take-off and the Capt (who was PM) decided to action the first checklist item immediately from memory, by intending to move the Stab switches to Cutoff but moving the fuel switches instead...
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MechEngr
July 12, 2025, 03:47:00 GMT permalink Post: 11920152 |
Such a fault in a multi pole switch would be odd. And in two switches at roughly the same time?
Typically you'd have a fault in one set of poles, giving you conflicting data. Such as the EAFR registers a fuel switch in cutoff, but the fuel did not actually cut off. Don't forget that the RAT deployed instantly, shortly after liftoff, agreeing that both switches were in CUTOFF. Literally covering all the bases with a video would not only show what the switch status was but also how it got there, if it has an immediate effect, which a second line would not do. |
Lonewolf_50
July 12, 2025, 03:55:00 GMT permalink Post: 11920156 |
This is pure speculation but I can envision the following sequence of events that would match the timeline and the little we know from the CVR and sequence of events.
- While PF is concentrated on flying the airplane, PNF moves the switches from RUN to CUTOFF in quick succession (for whatever reason). What reason would any 787 Training Captain have for doing that at rotation, or slightly after rotation? Really. Think about that. It makes Zero Sense. @tdracers's point about the startle effect is at least plausible. |
PPRuNeUser548247
July 12, 2025, 07:28:00 GMT permalink Post: 11920280 |
It's established fact both fuel control switches moved to CUTOFF 4 seconds after Vr, a deliberate guarded action, not easily done accidentally.
The CVR records one pilot asking “Why did you cut off?”, the other replies “I didn’t”. Then a bland Mayday attributed to the Captain “engine failure, returning” in the middle of the crisis. The language, if reported correctly, feels strangely detached. No confusion, no urgency, no clear troubleshooting. Not drawing conclusions, but does anyone else see signs of performative behaviour, that is saying the right things outwardly, while being at odds with the underlying cause? I appreciate that both crew members lost their lives, however if we avoid discussing uncomfortable patterns, we miss the point of investigation and learning. |
arewenotmen
July 12, 2025, 07:41:00 GMT permalink Post: 11920294 |
The fact is that the switches were found in Run position. Everything else is derived from the recorders, and they record electrical signals not physical/visual reality.
As of now we still have no evidence that the switches were - ever - physically in an OFF position. We can surmise from the CVR record that whoever asked the question visually observed their physical position - but it could be that he just read a message. Pls prove me wrong that we still have no evidence of the actual physical position of the switch toggles during the flight. |
sorvad
July 12, 2025, 07:42:00 GMT permalink Post: 11920296 |
Timeline of known events with source attribution from the preliminary report:
08:07:33 ATC: Takeoff clearance 08:07:37 A-SMGCS: Aircraft starts rolling 08:08:33 EAFR: V1 153kts 08:08:35 EAFR: Vr 155kts 08:08:39 EAFR: Gnd-Air mode transition 08:08:42 EAFR: Max IAS 180kts, Eng 1/2 Cutoff switches activate within 1 second of each other 08:08:42 CVR: "Why did you cut off", "I did not" (exact time not specified) 08:08:42 A-SMGCS: RAT deployed (exact time not specified) 08:08:47 EAFR: Both engine N2 below min idle. RAT hyd pwr commences 08:08:52 EAFR: Eng 1 cutoff to RUN 08:08:54 EAFR: APU inlet door opens (auto start logic) 08:08:56 EAFR: Eng 2 cutoff to RUN 08:09:05 ATC: Mayday call 08:09:11 EAFR recording stops Fuel cutoff switches operated within 1 second of each other suggests to me that the locking mechanism wasn't working as per (SAIB) No. NM-18-33. Any loose item could have accidentally (or not) operated the switches (including hands). Last edited by sorvad; 12th July 2025 at 08:03 . Reason: Clarification |
nachtmusak
July 12, 2025, 10:43:00 GMT permalink Post: 11920474 |
SLF: I have a small observation but I'm not sure what it means or if it has any relevance to the accident.
Previously I had assumed that the ADS-B data cut out at the same time as power was lost, so I imagined that whatever caused the fairly clear loss of thrust would have happened not too long before. But this report throws a bit of a wrench in my understanding of that. According to the report, the fuel cutoff switches transition from RUN to CUTOFF at or very shortly after 08:08:42 UTC. Both engines' N2 values pass below minimum idle speed and the RAT begins supplying hydraulic power at about 08:08:47. Does this not imply that the generators have already been lost? With the APU also being off (the APU inlet door is noted to start opening at 08:08:54), I would have expected ADS-B data to cut out at or before 08:08:47. But curiously FlightRadar24 at least claims to have received data frames from the aircraft until 08:08:51.640970, almost five seconds later and almost ten seconds after the transition to CUTOFF (though the last frame containing coordinates comes at 08:08:50.871005). Could anyone with relevant experience confirm how long it would take for AC power to be lost in this situation? Also, is it usual/unusual for a preliminary report like this to mention if/when the flight recorder switched to its independent power supply? I imagine it would definitely be in the final report, but I'd hoped it would be easily observable enough to be in this one. Beyond idle curiosity I'm asking because the report also says the no. 1 engine's cutoff switch transitioned from CUTOFF to RUN at "about 08:08:52", which oddly coincides with the last ADS-B data frame at 08:08:51.640970, and that seems important somehow. Or more likely I'm just ignorant of some quirk of the 787's electrical system. For reference FR24's CSV containing all ADS-B frames supposedly received from the aircraft can be found in their post here: https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/f...rom-ahmedabad/ |
Uplinker
July 12, 2025, 10:51:00 GMT permalink Post: 11920482 |
"The aircraft achieved the maximum recorded airspeed of 180 Knots IAS at about 08:08:42 UTC and immediately thereafter, the Engine 1 and Engine 2 fuel cutoff switches transitioned from RUN to CUTOFF position one after another with a time gap of 01 sec."
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martinebrangan
July 12, 2025, 11:36:00 GMT permalink Post: 11920539 |
It's established fact both fuel control switches moved to CUTOFF 4 seconds after Vr, a deliberate guarded action, not easily done accidentally.
The CVR records one pilot asking \x93Why did you cut off?\x94, the other replies \x93I didn\x92t\x94. Then a bland Mayday attributed to the Captain \x93engine failure, returning\x94 in the middle of the crisis. The language, if reported correctly, feels strangely detached. No confusion, no urgency, no clear troubleshooting. Not drawing conclusions, but does anyone else see signs of performative behaviour, that is saying the right things outwardly, while being at odds with the underlying cause? I appreciate that both crew members lost their lives, however if we avoid discussing uncomfortable patterns, we miss the point of investigation and learning. |
nachtmusak
July 12, 2025, 11:39:00 GMT permalink Post: 11920545 |
nachtmusak
the RAT can be deployed manually, and I believe a pilot did that here before power was lost.
The timing of data loss seemingly lining up with the first cutoff switch being flipped back to RUN seems a little too coincidental to me, but again hopefully someone with relevant knowledge has a mundane explanation for this. On top of that I feel like people are overestimating how long ten seconds actually is, especially considering some of those seconds are reported to have been taken up by confused dialogue (that isn't even reported in its entirety). I thought it was common wisdom that accidents are never down to one thing; it would be light-years from being the first time that suboptimal crew response turned a maybe-recoverable error into a definite disaster without an ounce of malice in the mix. |
AirScotia
July 12, 2025, 12:33:00 GMT permalink Post: 11920583 |
The report doesn't say WHEN the pilots spoke to each other. The one doing the asking might have been speaking ten seconds after CUTOFF, simultaneously moving switches to RUN. Or, he may have asked soon after observing the other's action, and there was a several seconds' delay before getting an answer.
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42go
July 12, 2025, 18:52:00 GMT permalink Post: 11920747 |
Rather confusingly, AvHerald carries this today
"On Jul 12th 2025 (UTC) India's media report that the investigation is NOT focussing on a human action causing the fuel switches to appear in the CUTOFF position, but on a system failure." I have no idea what provenance to attach to that! |
tdracer
July 12, 2025, 19:29:00 GMT permalink Post: 11920772 |
Since some posters seem focused on the theory that the fuel control switches didn't move - just the electric output did (and as I posted earlier, the FDR only knows electrical states, there is literally no other way for the FDR to monitor the switch position).
So I did a little thought experiment. Uncommanded engine shutdowns (for all causes) are already rare - a 10-6 event. Now, during my 40 year career, I can't remember ever encountering a case where the fuel shutoff was commanded without a corresponding movement of the fuel switch. However in this industry it's a good idea to 'never say never', so let's assume it's happened. It would take something like a hot short to cause it to happen (moving the voltage from RUN to CUTOFF) since an open circuit will simply leave the valves where they were. That would put its probability way out there - something like 10-8/hr. The left and right engine wiring is physically isolated from the other engine - nothing gets routed in common bundles between the engines. Hence there is simply no way a localized issue could affect both engine's wire bundles. So we're talking two independent events that cause the switch output to electrical change state between RUN and CUTOFF without associated switch movement. So now were out in a 10-16/hr. territory. Now, these independent events both occur a second apart - 3,600 seconds/hr., so we've just added ~8 orders of magnitude to the dual failure probability number (10-24/hr.). Now, they both somehow return to normal withing a few seconds of each other - another ~8 orders of magnitude so we're talking 10-32. That means the probability of this happening at any time since the Big Bang is way less than one.... Space aliens look reasonable in comparison. So can we discuss things that might actually have happened? |
Mrshed
July 12, 2025, 19:37:00 GMT permalink Post: 11920779 |
Since some posters seem focused on the theory that the fuel control switches didn't move - just the electric output did (and as I posted earlier, the FDR only knows electrical states, there is literally no other way for the FDR to monitor the switch position).
So I did a little thought experiment. Uncommanded engine shutdowns (for all causes) are already rare - a 10-6 event. Now, during my 40 year career, I can't remember ever encountering a case where the fuel shutoff was commanded without a corresponding movement of the fuel switch. However in this industry it's a good idea to 'never say never', so let's assume it's happened. It would take something like a hot short to cause it to happen (moving the voltage from RUN to CUTOFF) since an open circuit will simply leave the valves where they were. That would put its probability way out there - something like 10-8/hr. The left and right engine wiring is physically isolated from the other engine - nothing gets routed in common bundles between the engines. Hence there is simply no way a localized issue could affect both engine's wire bundles. So we're talking two independent events that cause the switch output to electrical change state between RUN and CUTOFF without associated switch movement. So now were out in a 10-16/hr. territory. Now, these independent events both occur a second apart - 3,600 seconds/hr., so we've just added ~8 orders of magnitude to the dual failure probability number (10-24/hr.). Now, they both somehow return to normal withing a few seconds of each other - another ~8 orders of magnitude so we're talking 10-32. That means the probability of this happening at any time since the Big Bang is way less than one.... Space aliens look reasonable in comparison. So can we discuss things that might actually have happened? |
arewenotmen
July 12, 2025, 20:21:00 GMT permalink Post: 11920809 |
The left and right engine wiring is physically isolated from the other engine - nothing gets routed in common bundles between the engines. Hence there is simply no way a localized issue could affect both engine's wire bundles. So we're talking two independent events that cause the switch output to electrical change state between RUN and CUTOFF without associated switch movement. So now were out in a 10-16/hr. territory. Now, these independent events both occur a second apart - 3,600 seconds/hr., so we've just added ~8 orders of magnitude to the dual failure probability number (10-24/hr.). Now, they both somehow return to normal withing a few seconds of each other - another ~8 orders of magnitude so we're talking 10-32.
For other reasons, I think it very unlikely that the switches were anything other than physically moved, so this is kind of pedantry rather than useful. But the probability analyses that folk (including experts) come up with often loses sight of the above. I posted much the same in one of the earlier threads about a month ago when all we knew was twin engine failure. ​​​​​ |
tdracer
July 12, 2025, 20:23:00 GMT permalink Post: 11920812 |
Question - For those of you with good simulator access.
What - Exactly - are the Flight Deck Effects that would be seen (and in what order?) in the scenario that PM Operated #1 then #2 to cutoff, whilst in flight with APU not running? e.g. - What screens would blank? for how long? Master Caution? EICAS Messages? Chimes/Aural Alerts? Intent behind this question is, If PF Does not see the switches operated, what reasonably is the amount of time it would take to look at those switches? Where is the attention initially directed? One EICAS and one PFD is on the battery (most likely the left seat PFD) - they might momentarily flicker but will not 'blank'. You get an EICAS message when you set the fuel switch to CUTOFF - something like "ENGINE X CUTOFF" (not sure of the 787 wording, but it would be something to that effect. While I doubt the PF would be actively monitoring EICAS during TO, with the sudden audio change to the engine noise as well as the sudden loss of acceleration, I'd expect him to take a quick look at EICAS to see what the ( ![]() |
Engineless
July 12, 2025, 20:34:00 GMT permalink Post: 11920817 |
The accident report indicates that the aircraft had a STAB master caution warning on the previous sector. A maintenance action took place during the turnaround in AMD before the accident flight.
Noting that the two guarded stab cutoff switches are directly adjacent to the two guardedfuel run/cutoff switches at the base of the throttle quadrant ,
Since some posters seem focused on the theory that the fuel control switches didn't move - just the electric output did (and as I posted earlier, the FDR only knows electrical states, there is literally no other way for the FDR to monitor the switch position).
So I did a little thought experiment. Uncommanded engine shutdowns (for all causes) are already rare - a 10-6 event. Now, during my 40 year career, I can't remember ever encountering a case where the fuel shutoff was commanded without a corresponding movement of the fuel switch. However in this industry it's a good idea to 'never say never', so let's assume it's happened. It would take something like a hot short to cause it to happen ( moving the voltage from RUN to CUTOFF ) since an open circuit will simply leave the valves where they were. That would put its probability way out there - something like 10-8/hr.
In the cockpit voice recording, one of the pilots is heard asking the other why did he cutoff.
The other pilot responded that he did not do so I would suggest starting with the maintenence engineer/crew who found 'no fault' after the STAB master caution was investigated immediately prior to this tragic flight. It would not be the first time that 'maintenance' caused an incident... Also, I urge you all to consider how many accidents have been blamed on 'pilot error' (how convenient when billion-dollar companies are at risk) only for further information to come to light that then exonerates the pilots (these stories don't usually make the front page). Try to stay open-minded folks. The investigation has a very long way to go. |
robmckenna
July 12, 2025, 20:44:00 GMT permalink Post: 11920821 |
Upthread there was quite some discussion about the preliminary report's use of the word
transition
in regard to the operation of the CUTOFF switches.
Several posters have quoted the SAIB recommendation to check these switches. I find it interesting that this Bulletin, an official document, uses the same word. Perhaps the investigation team, who reference that Bulletin In their report, were influenced by it to use the same word to describe its physical action. Quote: In order to move the switch from one position to the other under the condition where the locking feature is engaged, it is necessary for the pilot to lift the switch up while transitioning the switch position. If the locking feature is disengaged, the switch can be moved between the two positions without lifting the switch during transition , and the switch would be exposed to the potential of inadvertent operation. Inadvertent operation of the switch could result in an unintended consequence, such as an in-flight engine shutdown. Last edited by robmckenna; 12th July 2025 at 20:59 . |
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