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| MedicAn
July 17, 2025, 17:56:00 GMT permalink Post: 11924544 |
The study of suicidality is interesting, when it comes up against the examination of an event like this (whether murder/suicide is a possible explanation, why it might or might not be). Non-medical people will often focus on something that's a red herring because it seems strange in the context of a potential suicide, but in terms of the "natural history" of suicide, it might be a pretty common thing. I've been inv with suicide investigation as part of my work, and in some ways it's as frustrating to try to inform laypeople about what norms exist in that field as I imagine it must be for the professional pilots to have dilettantes like me opine on throttles and CRM. |
| tdracer
July 17, 2025, 21:52:00 GMT permalink Post: 11924692 |
It really baffles me how the French prosecutor was able to come out
just
two days
after the Germanwings 9525 crash
and lay out the likely cause in remarkable detail \x97 even identifying it as an apparent suicide by the co‑pilot. Yet here we are with the Air India 171 crash: it took the AAIB an entire month to release a so‑called \x93preliminary\x94 report, and even then it\x92s vague, incomplete and raises more questions than it answers.
To me, this is unacceptable. If the French could piece things together and be honest about it in 48 hours, the AAIB should have been able to do better than this. Ok, so they put in the preliminary report that the captain intentionally turned both fuel switches to CUTOFF, causing the crash. The Captain and his family is vilified, criminal investigations are launched. Vengeful relatives of those killed in the crash attack - perhaps even kill - members of the captain's family. Then it turns out that it's NOT what happened... The captain's reputation and his family have already been destroyed - irreparable damage has been done, and no amount of retractions and apologies for the mistake are going to correct that. Is it really too much to ask that we allow the investigation team to verify and validate their information before we throw someone to the wolves? |
| appruser
July 18, 2025, 00:25:00 GMT permalink Post: 11924773 |
So I've looked again and I think that basically the ADS-B data is 5 seconds out.
So in the diagram (can't modify right now but I will), the blue bar starts at 5 and ends at 13, max altitude marker at 8. That would tie in with loss of power. It would put, interestingly, engine cutoffs right at the earliest opportunity within the window available with sampling etc. (Incidentally an apology to Musician who I incorrectly told earlier that such a movement would be inconsistent with max altitude record, I can see clearly now this isn't the case!). I think for various reasons the ADSB data's absolute values are offset by some amount, for possibly all of the parameters. But there should be consistency in the deltas for the timestamp (by receiving station), the raw baro altitude, the Flightradar24 AGL values, and the airspeed. Flightradar24 themselves note that for altitude " ... the data is not above ground level, but it is consistent to itself." 08:08:46.55 ... 575ft ... 21ft ... 184kt 08:08:48.14 ... 600ft ... 46ft ... 179kt 08:08:48.61 ... 600ft ... 46ft ... 177kt 08:08:49.01 ... 600ft ... 46ft ... 177kt 08:08:49.46 ... 625ft ... 71ft ... 177kt 08:08:49.92 ... 625ft ... 71ft ... 174kt 08:08:50.39 ... 625ft ... 71ft ... 174kt 08:08:50.87 ... 625ft ... 71ft ... 172kt From the Preliminary Report's airport cctv picture, the RAT was seen deployed at, by my estimate here , 150ft baro altitude, between 4-7 seconds after rotation. So the ADSB readings have to be prior to that. What's interesting is that the ADSB data covers: - 4-5 seconds of time (let's approximate 4 seconds from 46.55 to 50.55, ignoring the 0.32s for the moment) - 50ft of altitude gain - Declining airspeed from the 1st reading to the last in this final segment from the runway. Big questions in my mind: 1. If the loss of ADSB corresponds to the E1/E2Fuel Cutoff switches being moved from RUN -> CUTOFF, why is the airspeed declining for the prior 4 seconds? 2. In 4 seconds, why is there only 50ft of altitude gain? that seems odd. 3. To account for only 50ft of alt gain, if we assume the 1st reading is on the runway just before rotation, the intermediate +25ft alt gain is at rotation (Nose up but MLG still on the runway), and the last 4 readings are in the air (nose up an additional 25ft), that means that 1 second or less after lift-off, ADSB was lost - this is before E1/E2 FCO RUN-> CUTOFF. It's just weird . Last edited by appruser; 18th July 2025 at 00:41 . Reason: added a comma for clarity |
| Sailvi767
July 18, 2025, 01:32:00 GMT permalink Post: 11924794 |
Apologies for the delay in responding to your posts. I see that you and others have stepped in, thanks.
I think for various reasons the ADSB data's absolute values are offset by some amount, for possibly all of the parameters. But there should be consistency in the deltas for the timestamp (by receiving station), the raw baro altitude, the Flightradar24 AGL values, and the airspeed. Flightradar24 themselves note that for altitude " ... the data is not above ground level, but it is consistent to itself." 08:08:46.55 ... 575ft ... 21ft ... 184kt 08:08:48.14 ... 600ft ... 46ft ... 179kt 08:08:48.61 ... 600ft ... 46ft ... 177kt 08:08:49.01 ... 600ft ... 46ft ... 177kt 08:08:49.46 ... 625ft ... 71ft ... 177kt 08:08:49.92 ... 625ft ... 71ft ... 174kt 08:08:50.39 ... 625ft ... 71ft ... 174kt 08:08:50.87 ... 625ft ... 71ft ... 172kt From the Preliminary Report's airport cctv picture, the RAT was seen deployed at, by my estimate here , 150ft baro altitude, between 4-7 seconds after rotation. So the ADSB readings have to be prior to that. What's interesting is that the ADSB data covers: - 4-5 seconds of time (let's approximate 4 seconds from 46.55 to 50.55, ignoring the 0.32s for the moment) - 50ft of altitude gain - Declining airspeed from the 1st reading to the last in this final segment from the runway. Big questions in my mind: 1. If the loss of ADSB corresponds to the E1/E2Fuel Cutoff switches being moved from RUN -> CUTOFF, why is the airspeed declining for the prior 4 seconds? 2. In 4 seconds, why is there only 50ft of altitude gain? that seems odd. 3. To account for only 50ft of alt gain, if we assume the 1st reading is on the runway just before rotation, the intermediate +25ft alt gain is at rotation (Nose up but MLG still on the runway), and the last 4 readings are in the air (nose up an additional 25ft), that means that 1 second or less after lift-off, ADSB was lost - this is before E1/E2 FCO RUN-> CUTOFF. It's just weird . The widely watched video shows a very normal initial rotation and climb. |
| Mrshed
July 18, 2025, 05:07:00 GMT permalink Post: 11924844 |
Apologies for the delay in responding to your posts. I see that you and others have stepped in, thanks.
I think for various reasons the ADSB data's absolute values are offset by some amount, for possibly all of the parameters. But there should be consistency in the deltas for the timestamp (by receiving station), the raw baro altitude, the Flightradar24 AGL values, and the airspeed. Flightradar24 themselves note that for altitude " ... the data is not above ground level, but it is consistent to itself." 08:08:46.55 ... 575ft ... 21ft ... 184kt 08:08:48.14 ... 600ft ... 46ft ... 179kt 08:08:48.61 ... 600ft ... 46ft ... 177kt 08:08:49.01 ... 600ft ... 46ft ... 177kt 08:08:49.46 ... 625ft ... 71ft ... 177kt 08:08:49.92 ... 625ft ... 71ft ... 174kt 08:08:50.39 ... 625ft ... 71ft ... 174kt 08:08:50.87 ... 625ft ... 71ft ... 172kt From the Preliminary Report's airport cctv picture, the RAT was seen deployed at, by my estimate here , 150ft baro altitude, between 4-7 seconds after rotation. So the ADSB readings have to be prior to that. What's interesting is that the ADSB data covers: - 4-5 seconds of time (let's approximate 4 seconds from 46.55 to 50.55, ignoring the 0.32s for the moment) - 50ft of altitude gain - Declining airspeed from the 1st reading to the last in this final segment from the runway. Big questions in my mind: 1. If the loss of ADSB corresponds to the E1/E2Fuel Cutoff switches being moved from RUN -> CUTOFF, why is the airspeed declining for the prior 4 seconds? 2. In 4 seconds, why is there only 50ft of altitude gain? that seems odd. 3. To account for only 50ft of alt gain, if we assume the 1st reading is on the runway just before rotation, the intermediate +25ft alt gain is at rotation (Nose up but MLG still on the runway), and the last 4 readings are in the air (nose up an additional 25ft), that means that 1 second or less after lift-off, ADSB was lost - this is before E1/E2 FCO RUN-> CUTOFF. It's just weird . |
| Musician
July 18, 2025, 05:18:00 GMT permalink Post: 11924846 |
Thank you for your reply,
appruser
, and apologies fur cutting most of it:
Big questions in my mind:
1. If the loss of ADSB corresponds to the E1/E2Fuel Cutoff switches being moved from RUN -> CUTOFF, why is the airspeed declining for the prior 4 seconds? 2. In 4 seconds, why is there only 50ft of altitude gain? that seems odd. 3. To account for only 50ft of alt gain, if we assume the 1st reading is on the runway just before rotation, the intermediate +25ft alt gain is at rotation (Nose up but MLG still on the runway), and the last 4 readings are in the air (nose up an additional 25ft), that means that 1 second or less after lift-off, ADSB was lost - this is before E1/E2 FCO RUN-> CUTOFF. It's just weird . 2. Altitudes are rounded, so this could be close to 75 feet gain‐‐or a gain and decline, if the data covers the top of the trajectory. 3. The first reading is definitely in the air, after rotation. FR24 does not report the altitude when the ADS-B data indicates that the aircraft is on the ground, and their data download confirms that. The best bet to establish timing is to use rotation as datum, and then match the altitude/time estimates from the CCTV with position/time from the ADS-B and the estimated ground speed of the aircraft. The fact that the ground speed is declining throughout the data sequence strongly suggests that it begins some time after the point, or at the point, when thrust was lost. And we know that didn't begin to happen until the aircraft was 3 seconds into the air. Last edited by Musician; 18th July 2025 at 05:38 . |
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