Posts by user "DaveReidUK" [Posts: 71 Total up-votes: 0 Pages: 4]

DaveReidUK
July 13, 2025, 09:15:00 GMT
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Post: 11921168
Originally Posted by Someone Somewhere
I suspect they thought that stating the switches had been replaced twice since the bulletin was published would dispel such concerns.
The replacement of the switches wasn't directly connected with their operation, but a by-product of replacement (for some other reason) of the throttle control module.

Air India didn't inspect the switches on board their 787s when the SB came out, so it's doubtful that they inspected those on the spare modules in stores.

Subjects: None

DaveReidUK
July 13, 2025, 19:29:00 GMT
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Post: 11921564
Originally Posted by Musician
Yes.
The ADS-B data collected by FR24 leave the aircraft at 172 knots 8 seconds 4 seconds into the outage. Vr was 155 knots per the report. The preliminary report also says it crashed at 8⁰ nose-up attitude, which was after the "flare".
Please tell me how recoverable that is, with hypothetical 95% thrust on both engines 2 6 seconds later.

edit: reviewed fr24 data and adjusted time covered; I think it did decelerate to approximately 155 knots in 10 seconds, based on -3knots/second.
The ADS-B data ceased approximately 3 seconds before the APU auto start sequence commenced.

Beware of comparing the speeds from ADS-B, which are groundspeeds, with those from the report, which are IAS.

Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): ADSB  APU  FlightRadar24  Preliminary Report

DaveReidUK
July 14, 2025, 08:14:00 GMT
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Post: 11921939
Originally Posted by GroundedSpanner
In the case of the B787, switch PN 4TL837-3D. Check those AC to ensure locking is OK, and if you do happen to find something odd, let us (the FAA) know.
No-one, has ever found anything wrong with any of those other switches, or there would be AD's.
The SB specifically states that the concern does not warrant an AD, and does not request the operator to report findings to the FAA.

Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): Air Worthiness Directives  FAA

DaveReidUK
July 16, 2025, 07:44:00 GMT
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Post: 11923493
Originally Posted by tdracer
Not trying to be part of the on-going hamster wheel. But the discussions regarding the odds of this being pilot suicide based on historical rates are missing a very critical statistical point.
Let's just assume that rate of commercial airliner crashes due to pilot suicide is 1 in 100 million departures. Simply put, that means that if you get on a commercial aircraft to fly from point A to point B, the historical odds are that there is a 1 in 100 million chance that your flight will crash due to an intentional suicidal pilot act. However, the historical odds say that the odds of your flight crashing for any reason are several million to one. Since the turn of the century, the fatal cash rate has been something around 1 in 5 million departures.
Now, we know for a fact that the Air India 787 crashed - hence the probability of a crash for this particular flight is not 1 in 5 million - it's ONE! That means the historical odds of this crash being due to an intentional act by a pilot (i.e. suicide) is ~5%, not one in 100 million (obviously a rough number, but you get the idea).
It's an unfortunate fact that most people simply don't understand Bayes' Theorem. PPRuNe posters are not immune.

Subjects: None

DaveReidUK
July 16, 2025, 12:53:00 GMT
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Post: 11923721
Originally Posted by 1stspotter
You might want to carefully read the complete SAIB. The FAA wanted to make sure the issue on some of the B737 switches does not exist on other Boeing made aircraft.
It is here. https://feitoffake.wordpress.com/202...787-explained/




I don't think it's me who is having trouble reading the SAIB.

It calls for the switches on any of the types mentioned to be replaced if found defective, and for the older type of switches on the 737 to be replaced whether defective or not.

Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): FAA  Special Airworthiness Information Bulletin

DaveReidUK
July 17, 2025, 08:38:00 GMT
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Post: 11924226
Originally Posted by tdracer
There are good, valid reasons for the ICAO accident investigation rules - and one of those rules says they'd don't release information until it is properly vetted and validated.
Strictly speaking, they are SARPs (Standards and Recommended Practices) for accident investigation, not rules.

Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): ICAO

DaveReidUK
July 17, 2025, 11:15:00 GMT
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Post: 11924321
Originally Posted by Lazyload
For everyone interested in the fco switches, here\x92s a totally authoritative explanation. Fast forward to about 15 minute mark.
Transcript of the relevant part:

"The unit is designed with a spring-loaded action when it's pulled up. Its natural state wants to stay down at all times - that is one locking mechanism. The secondary locking mechanism is the gate - when the switch is pulled up and transitioned into its next position, it gets locked by the gate, or the detent, or the bridge (whatever you want to call it)."

Obviously the narrator doesn't mean that there are two independent locking mechanisms - it's the combined action of the spring and the detent that supplies the desired locking characteristics.

Interestingly, he goes on to say that it was the failure of the spring on a 737 switch that led to the SB being issued.




Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): Fuel (All)  Fuel Cutoff Switches  Fuel Cutoff Switches (detent)

DaveReidUK
July 17, 2025, 12:11:00 GMT
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Post: 11924350
Originally Posted by 1stspotter
There is not a single report of a switch failure on any of B787 aircraft.
The history of aviation in general, and accident investigation in particular, is littered with instances of "Hey, that's never happened before ...".

Subjects: None

DaveReidUK
July 17, 2025, 13:08:00 GMT
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Post: 11924395
Originally Posted by DTA
The spring and gate/bridge together are the single mechanism that prevents uncommanded operation of the switch. Neither works without the other.
Exactly.

The mechanical interference between the fixed (lower) and moving (upper) parts of the switch depends on the spring force forcing the two parts to mesh:



Subjects: None

DaveReidUK
July 17, 2025, 15:59:00 GMT
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Post: 11924486
Originally Posted by 1stspotter
Mary Schiavo told a lot of utter nonsense on this crash. Someone should write an article about this lady.
I think you'll find no shortage of articles written about Ms Schiavo over the course of her illustrious career. The industry needs more like her.

Subjects: None

DaveReidUK
July 17, 2025, 17:30:00 GMT
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Post: 11924532
Originally Posted by ex FE Hoppy
And the FAA responded by issuing a notice that the switches are fine in response to the Indian report which brought up an unrelated issue as if to muddy the facts.
FAA confirms that they didn't certificate the 787 with potentially dangerous fuel control switches ...

Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): FAA  Fuel (All)  Fuel Cutoff Switches