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njc
2025-06-13T22:59:00 permalink Post: 11900982 |
Speaking as a B787 Captain..... There is so much rubbish and stupid suggestion being written here.
This aircraft was airborne for a grand total of 22 seconds, half of which was climbing to no more than 150' aal. - No Flaps? Due to the setup of the ECL it is physically impossible to go down the runway without some sort of take-off flap set. The T/o config warning would have been singing it's head off. Despite assertions to the contrary I have seen no video clear enough to detect a lack of flaps. - RAT out? Almost impossible, I have seen no quality footage that definitively witnesses the RAT being out. Those who think they car hear a RAT type noise might be listening to a motorcycle passing or similar. It takes a triple hydraulic failure or a double engine failure to trigger RAT deploment. They happily went through V1 without a hint of rejected take off so as they rotated the aircraft was serviceable. These are big engines, they take a long time to wind down when you shut them down. I have never tried it however engine failure detection takes 30s or for the aircraft to react and they were not even airborne that long. - Flaps up instead of gear? The B787 flaps are slow both in and out. Given that the 'Positive rate' call is not made the second the wheels leave the ground, a mis-selection of flaps up would not cause any loss of lift for at least 20 seconds, by which time they had already crashed. I believe the gear remained down not because of mis-selection but because of a major distraction on rotate. Discounting the impossible, two hypotheses remain: 1. Invalid derate set through incorrect cross-checking. Trundling down the runway takes very little power to reach Vr. It is only when you rotate that you create more drag and discover that you do not have sufficient thrust vs. drag to sustain a climb. Or.... 2. Put 200' as the altitude target in the FCU. Immediate ALT capture and all the power comes off. PF is still hand flying trying to increase pitch but is already way behind the aircraft. It could be after this that Boeing are forced to review the B787 practice of exploring the very edges of the performance envelope. The engines, however: yes they take a long time to wind down fully , but they don't take long to stop providing thrust if you shut them down or cut the fuel (or indeed have a bird strike). I don't understand why you consider a loss of thrust to be an impossible hypothesis. There's also a still image above which appears to show a deployed RAT; that's even if we discount the sound track, which might indeed be something else than a RAT, and ignore the sound of the crash being clearly audible despite the lack of engine noise earlier in the video. Subjects: Bird Strike Dual Engine Failure Engine Failure (All) Engine Failure Detection Time Flaps (All) Flaps vs Gear Hydraulic Failure (All) Hydraulic Failure (Double) Hydraulic Failure (Triple) RAT (All) RAT (Alternate Noise Sources) RAT (Deployment) RAT (Witnesses) V1 5 users liked this post. |
njc
2025-06-14T13:32:00 permalink Post: 11901486 |
My understanding is that RATs have variable-pitch props, so the RPM wouldn't be strongly linked to airspeed.
Subjects: None 1 user liked this post. |
njc
2025-06-14T15:06:00 permalink Post: 11901555 |
- The bogie could be explained by the Flap/Slat priority valve giving priority to the flaps if the PM suddenly realised his mistake and quickly put the flap lever back to the TO position and then selected the gear lever to UP. Those systems are both heavy hitters and would’ve sucked the life out of the CTR hydraulic system pumps.
- There is no way loss of AC (alleged RAT deployment) could've caused a spool down of both engines. Think QF A380 incident in SIN - The entire #1 engine wiring harness in the wing was completely severed and yet it continued (by design) to run at its previous thrust setting. They had to shut it down using a fire truck! - History and design would dictate that a big 180 minutes ETOP’s twin such as the 787 having a dual engine failure or significant power loss at such a critical phase of flight would be a billion to one chance at best. Only the Airbus A400 had a software issue causing all 4 engine fuel shutoff valves to close causing it to crash killing the flight test crew - But this was during its development and flt testing. - Wide body twin’s delivering in the region of 60,000 to 115,000 lbs of thrust at TO rarely , if at all, flame out from multiple bird strike(s) like the baby Bus’s and Boeing’s. If anyone has seen the frozen chickens at TO power video would know what I’m talking about. And the Fan Blade being ‘blown off’ as well. In both cases the engine was was able to maintain full TOGA thrust for significantly longer than the AI aircraft. As for history and design making a dual-engine failure a billion to one chance: I'd be more inclined to agree that it's unlikely to be what happened if the actual manufacturing of planes (Boeings in particular) and the maintenance procedures were both carried out "by the book" at all times by the manufacturer and the airlines... This is clearly not the case though. Last edited by Saab Dastard; 14th Jun 2025 at 19:35 . Reason: reference to deleted posts removed Subjects: Bird Strike Dual Engine Failure Engine Failure (All) Flap Retraction Flaps (All) Gear Retraction Hydraulic Failure (All) Hydraulic Pumps RAT (All) RAT (Deployment) TOGA |
njc
2025-06-14T16:04:00 permalink Post: 11901609 |
I believe the point being made by the person you quoted was that the noise of the engines might have become much quieter
before
the start of the video with the possible RAT noise (the one where the plane passes almost overhead).
Subjects: Fuel (All) Fuel Pumps RAT (All) |
njc
2025-06-14T22:19:00 permalink Post: 11901899 |
I'm still sticking with "Major Electrical Fault" as my most likely cause, and this adds to my suspicions.
[snip] Anyway, there MUST be ways that the redundant power supplies can be brought down, simply because, to have a critical bus powered from a number of independent sources, there must be "controls" of some sort. I don't know how it's done in the 787, but that's where I'd be looking. As there is a lot of discussion already about how the bogies are hanging the wrong way suggesting a started but failed retraction operation, and it's now confirmed that the retraction would normally have taken place at about the point where the flight went "pear shaped", I'm going to suggest that the two things are connected. More than that: I'll suggest that the Gear Up command triggered the fault that caused both engines to shut down in very short succession. Nothing the pilots did wrong, and no way they could have known and prevented it. Subjects: Electrical Failure Fuel (All) Fuel Pumps 2 users liked this post. |
njc
2025-06-14T22:29:00 permalink Post: 11901908 |
You mean if #2 failed (fire?) and the fire handle was pulled for #1? Then yes for sure that'd leave the plane without thrust but (a) that seems totally unconnected to the electrical failure hypothesis under discussion and (b) seems likely to have produced some visible "smoke" trails from the engines (not seen on video).
Subjects: Electrical Failure |
njc
2025-06-14T22:43:00 permalink Post: 11901915 |
I've seen nothing to confirm if or when the engines stopped providing thrust, but if you assume that it happened and that it came after the wheels left the ground then you'd also have to assume there was a pretty serious design flaw in the WOW system for it to falsely indicate weight on the wheels just because there was an issue raising the gear. It feels like kinda the same thing as assuming a serious flaw in the overall TCMA system.
Subjects: TCMA (All) Weight on Wheels 1 user liked this post. |
njc
2025-06-15T19:03:00 permalink Post: 11902726 |
![]() I'd phrase it differently: the frequency (and harmonics) of the noise are consistent with it being a RAT. If you then assume that it was a RAT and infer distance and speed curves from the Doppler variation, you get plausible values for an aircraft. But the two things are somewhat linked so you can't really treat the second thing as confirmation of the first. (FWIW, I'm personally quite satisfied that it was indeed a RAT on the audio.) Subjects: Audio Analysis Dual Engine Failure Engine Failure (All) FDR RAT (All) RAT (Deployment) TCMA (All) 4 users liked this post. |
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