pampel
2025-06-12T14:22:00
permalink Post: 11899262

Quote:

Originally Posted by L4key

https://x.com/Vikasmakwana111/status/1933162059556159903

New angle from the airport.

That looks like a totally normal take off, until the plane simply stops climbing and starts descending, with no visible changes in attitude, puffs of smoke or anything else obvious.

Subjects: None

6 users liked this post.

pampel
2025-06-13T10:46:00
permalink Post: 11900336

Quote:

Originally Posted by Screamliner

no RAT to be seen either, again ruling out dual engine failure, also the climb would not have been so parabolic

The visual evidence of the RAT being deployed (or not) is a bit dubious, but the audio evidence is pretty solid. It's also corroborated by the best eye witnesses we have, the pilots, explaining that they had lost power in their mayday call. And corroborated again by the second best eye witness we have, the passenger who survived, commenting on the 'green flickering lights' of the emergency exit signs indicating power loss. And corroborated again by the (now confirmed) posts on social media from the previous set of passengers complaining that aircon, entertainment, lights etc on the plain weren't working.

The idea that the flaps weren't set for take off also seems incredibly dubious given that in several frames of the original footage you can see the engines through the wings, on both sides, something not explainable by grainy footage or compression artifacts, and only possible if the flaps are down.

Edit to add: the reports on social media from the previous passengers complaining about non-functional electronics have been confirmed

Last edited by pampel; 13th Jun 2025 at 11:31 .

Subjects: Audio Analysis Dual Engine Failure Engine Failure (All) Mayday RAT (All) RAT (Deployment)

3 users liked this post.

pampel
2025-06-13T11:35:00
permalink Post: 11900390

Quote:

Originally Posted by tumtiddle

Evidence in this thread would lean me toward the RAT deployed and therefore dual engine out scenario. As for the cause of that, well, only a couple of likely scenarios exist that could cause simultaneous shutdown of both engines, including mistaken or intentional use of the fuel cutoff levers.

If the fuel was cut off, how long would it take until the engines spooled down? How long would it take, given wind-milling etc, for that to result in a loss of power? I'd love to see a timeline of the flight with the fuel being cut off that is remotely compatible with the events we saw, because I don't think it's possible.

Subjects: Fuel (All) Fuel Cutoff RAT (All) RAT (Deployment)

pampel
2025-06-14T12:01:00
permalink Post: 11901409

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kraftstoffvondesibel

I hesitate to chip in in these accidents thread. Keep them clean. However, as as a few comments above brushes my audio expertise, I will comment.

A very simple audio analysis give me this:
The 3 segments horisontally, are of B787s passing overhead. The drop you see is the doppler effect.
In other words, these are spectrograms over time which makes these distinctions easier than a simple static spectrogram.
1. B787 with RAT extended.
2.Air india crash
3. B787 without RAT

It's a 5 minute laptop job, and it would look much prettier and clearer if I spent some time with it, (Gain to color match, and spectrally match to compensate for microphone placement and type),
but it is 85% conclusive even when done as simple as this IMO.
(I do have legal forensic audio experience)
The RAT was out judging from the audio evidence. You can see the the equally spaced overtones of the propelller match when passing overhead resulting in the Doppler effect, the difference in length of the doppler is caused by distance and the slightly varying frequencies shown in the starting point is caused by a difference in speed. But the harmonic content match.
In the 3rd segment you see none of these overtones at all.

I was initially going to post that a spectral analysis was a bit academic given that the similarity is plainly obvious just from listening to the audio, but there is something to be said for having visual evidence that 1) the sound had a pitch and distinct harmonics, rather than just being the noise you get from the roar of a jet, 2) the sound had the specific pitch and harmonic relationships of a RAT, and 3) that pitch fell exactly as you'd expect from the doppler shift of a plane flying away from you.

Last edited by pampel; 14th Jun 2025 at 17:46 .

Subjects: Audio Analysis RAT (All) RAT (Deployment)

6 users liked this post.

pampel
2025-06-16T09:39:00
permalink Post: 11903323

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyingUpsideDown

I'm not convinced the RAT is deployed. If it has deployed it could've been a last ditch effort for the crew to bring the fuel control switches from RUN to CUTOFF & back to RUN believing they've had a dual engine failure. This would account for the RAT if it did deploy.

This doesn't make any sense. The plane was in the air for approximately 30 seconds, the plane stops climbing around 12 seconds after take off, and the noise of the RAT is heard 11 seconds before the plane crashes - even if we assume the RAT both deploys instantly and deployed the exact moment that video began recording, that only gives the pilots a 7 second window to perform an action that results in it being deployed.

There just isn't enough time for the RAT to be deployed as a result of any action by the crew, IMHO. And to demonstrate how long 7 seconds is - that's enough to say 20 words, assuming no interruptions .

Subjects: Dual Engine Failure Engine Failure (All) Fuel (All) Fuel Cutoff RAT (All) RAT (Deployment)

1 user liked this post.

pampel
2025-06-17T19:00:00
permalink Post: 11904571

Quote:

Originally Posted by Del Prado

Air India have cancelled a few 787 flights as they work through the mandated safety checks.
From The Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...uiry-continues

It's hard to know what conclusion to draw from this. You might read the summary and think the planes where grounded because Air India found some sort of maintenance related smoking gun, but the article also states that all of the 787-8 Dreamliners the DGCA inspected so far (24 of 33?) were found to be safe, and suggests the planes were grounded due to poor, but not immediately threatening, maintenance. It's also interesting that it is only 787-8 Dreamliners that are being grounded.

The only reasonable takeaway is that this is further evidence that the crash was not caused by the pilots.

Subjects: DGCA

4 users liked this post.

pampel
2025-06-18T08:03:00
permalink Post: 11905011

Quote:

Originally Posted by Icarus2001

That my friend is the billion dollar question. Which is the figure that the class action lawyers wrote on their whiteboard I think.

Every day that passes with no Boeing or GE bulletins reduces the chance of a design issue and suggests maintenance or operational error.

True, but it took Boeing 4 months to ground Max 8's, three days after, and only because of, the second fatal accident.

Boeing, in their very troubled state, will be doing everything they can to shift the blame and keep their fleet in the air, the Indian authorities and AI will be doing everything they can do pin the blame on Boeing/GE, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence etc...its very shaky ground to draw conclusions from.

Subjects: None

8 users liked this post.

pampel
2025-06-18T10:27:00
permalink Post: 11905115

Quote:

Originally Posted by bud leon

I just can\x92t see it being a Boeing issue. There would be no aircraft manufacturer more attuned to their reputation as a provider of safe aircraft. There have been no directives.

I'm not sure you can infer much from them being sensitive to their somewhat wrecked reputation - any directive for their aircraft, even if it was for a virtually insignificant piece of the puzzle, would cause a flurry of bad press and speculation. They will absolutely be fighting tooth and nail to avoid it. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, for all sides in this.

Subjects: None

5 users liked this post.

pampel 2025-06-12T14:22:00 permalink Post: 11899262	Quote: Originally Posted by L4key https://x.com/Vikasmakwana111/status/1933162059556159903 New angle from the airport. That looks like a totally normal take off, until the plane simply stops climbing and starts descending, with no visible changes in attitude, puffs of smoke or anything else obvious. Subjects: None 6 users liked this post.
pampel 2025-06-13T10:46:00 permalink Post: 11900336	Quote: Originally Posted by Screamliner no RAT to be seen either, again ruling out dual engine failure, also the climb would not have been so parabolic The visual evidence of the RAT being deployed (or not) is a bit dubious, but the audio evidence is pretty solid. It's also corroborated by the best eye witnesses we have, the pilots, explaining that they had lost power in their mayday call. And corroborated again by the second best eye witness we have, the passenger who survived, commenting on the 'green flickering lights' of the emergency exit signs indicating power loss. And corroborated again by the (now confirmed) posts on social media from the previous set of passengers complaining that aircon, entertainment, lights etc on the plain weren't working. The idea that the flaps weren't set for take off also seems incredibly dubious given that in several frames of the original footage you can see the engines through the wings, on both sides, something not explainable by grainy footage or compression artifacts, and only possible if the flaps are down. Edit to add: the reports on social media from the previous passengers complaining about non-functional electronics have been confirmed Last edited by pampel; 13th Jun 2025 at 11:31 . Subjects: Audio Analysis Dual Engine Failure Engine Failure (All) Mayday RAT (All) RAT (Deployment) 3 users liked this post.
pampel 2025-06-13T11:35:00 permalink Post: 11900390	Quote: Originally Posted by tumtiddle Evidence in this thread would lean me toward the RAT deployed and therefore dual engine out scenario. As for the cause of that, well, only a couple of likely scenarios exist that could cause simultaneous shutdown of both engines, including mistaken or intentional use of the fuel cutoff levers. If the fuel was cut off, how long would it take until the engines spooled down? How long would it take, given wind-milling etc, for that to result in a loss of power? I'd love to see a timeline of the flight with the fuel being cut off that is remotely compatible with the events we saw, because I don't think it's possible. Subjects: Fuel (All) Fuel Cutoff RAT (All) RAT (Deployment)
pampel 2025-06-14T12:01:00 permalink Post: 11901409	Quote: Originally Posted by Kraftstoffvondesibel I hesitate to chip in in these accidents thread. Keep them clean. However, as as a few comments above brushes my audio expertise, I will comment. A very simple audio analysis give me this: The 3 segments horisontally, are of B787s passing overhead. The drop you see is the doppler effect. In other words, these are spectrograms over time which makes these distinctions easier than a simple static spectrogram. 1. B787 with RAT extended. 2.Air india crash 3. B787 without RAT It's a 5 minute laptop job, and it would look much prettier and clearer if I spent some time with it, (Gain to color match, and spectrally match to compensate for microphone placement and type), but it is 85% conclusive even when done as simple as this IMO. (I do have legal forensic audio experience) The RAT was out judging from the audio evidence. You can see the the equally spaced overtones of the propelller match when passing overhead resulting in the Doppler effect, the difference in length of the doppler is caused by distance and the slightly varying frequencies shown in the starting point is caused by a difference in speed. But the harmonic content match. In the 3rd segment you see none of these overtones at all. I was initially going to post that a spectral analysis was a bit academic given that the similarity is plainly obvious just from listening to the audio, but there is something to be said for having visual evidence that 1) the sound had a pitch and distinct harmonics, rather than just being the noise you get from the roar of a jet, 2) the sound had the specific pitch and harmonic relationships of a RAT, and 3) that pitch fell exactly as you'd expect from the doppler shift of a plane flying away from you. Last edited by pampel; 14th Jun 2025 at 17:46 . Subjects: Audio Analysis RAT (All) RAT (Deployment) 6 users liked this post.
pampel 2025-06-16T09:39:00 permalink Post: 11903323	Quote: Originally Posted by FlyingUpsideDown I'm not convinced the RAT is deployed. If it has deployed it could've been a last ditch effort for the crew to bring the fuel control switches from RUN to CUTOFF & back to RUN believing they've had a dual engine failure. This would account for the RAT if it did deploy. This doesn't make any sense. The plane was in the air for approximately 30 seconds, the plane stops climbing around 12 seconds after take off, and the noise of the RAT is heard 11 seconds before the plane crashes - even if we assume the RAT both deploys instantly and deployed the exact moment that video began recording, that only gives the pilots a 7 second window to perform an action that results in it being deployed. There just isn't enough time for the RAT to be deployed as a result of any action by the crew, IMHO. And to demonstrate how long 7 seconds is - that's enough to say 20 words, assuming no interruptions . Subjects: Dual Engine Failure Engine Failure (All) Fuel (All) Fuel Cutoff RAT (All) RAT (Deployment) 1 user liked this post.
pampel 2025-06-17T19:00:00 permalink Post: 11904571	Quote: Originally Posted by Del Prado Air India have cancelled a few 787 flights as they work through the mandated safety checks. From The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...uiry-continues It's hard to know what conclusion to draw from this. You might read the summary and think the planes where grounded because Air India found some sort of maintenance related smoking gun, but the article also states that all of the 787-8 Dreamliners the DGCA inspected so far (24 of 33?) were found to be safe, and suggests the planes were grounded due to poor, but not immediately threatening, maintenance. It's also interesting that it is only 787-8 Dreamliners that are being grounded. The only reasonable takeaway is that this is further evidence that the crash was not caused by the pilots. Subjects: DGCA 4 users liked this post.
pampel 2025-06-18T08:03:00 permalink Post: 11905011	Quote: Originally Posted by Icarus2001 That my friend is the billion dollar question. Which is the figure that the class action lawyers wrote on their whiteboard I think. Every day that passes with no Boeing or GE bulletins reduces the chance of a design issue and suggests maintenance or operational error. True, but it took Boeing 4 months to ground Max 8's, three days after, and only because of, the second fatal accident. Boeing, in their very troubled state, will be doing everything they can to shift the blame and keep their fleet in the air, the Indian authorities and AI will be doing everything they can do pin the blame on Boeing/GE, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence etc...its very shaky ground to draw conclusions from. Subjects: None 8 users liked this post.
pampel 2025-06-18T10:27:00 permalink Post: 11905115	Quote: Originally Posted by bud leon I just can\x92t see it being a Boeing issue. There would be no aircraft manufacturer more attuned to their reputation as a provider of safe aircraft. There have been no directives. I'm not sure you can infer much from them being sensitive to their somewhat wrecked reputation - any directive for their aircraft, even if it was for a virtually insignificant piece of the puzzle, would cause a flurry of bad press and speculation. They will absolutely be fighting tooth and nail to avoid it. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, for all sides in this. Subjects: None 5 users liked this post.

Posts by user "pampel" [Posts: 8 Total up-votes: 33 Pages: 1]