Posts by user "slats11" [Posts: 25 Total up-votes: 0 Pages: 2]

I wonder how long before we see video recording in the flight deck. Insurers (rather than anyone else) may make this decision.

We are now videoed pumping fuel, scanning groceries, walking through airports and even sitting in an Uber.


Also, the FDR/CVR have served us well over decades. But they may have been overtaken by technology not available when they were developed.

Is it sensible for this invaluable data to only be stored on the plane and flown to the scene of the crash? Or should it be streamed to a ground station like engine telemetry and other data?

Think about MH370
And even how long it took to establish what happened with AF447.

You want these switches within reach of both pilots, in a position where hands are not constantly passing over them, able to be actioned quickly, to be internally guarded (= require 2 distinct actions to move) as well as externally protected (side guards). It also seems logical to have them near the thrust levers.

Boeing have achieved all this.

It feels like it would be an error to try and redesign these switches in light of this incident. The switches operated as they were commanded.

Risk is like a balloon. Squash it in one direction, and it sometimes expands in a different direction.

These switches have worked well for millions of flights over decades.

But it is not realistic to make a flight deck immune to malfeasance. Making things more complex in a well intentioned effort to mitigate risk will likely have unintended and undesirable consequences.

Video of flight deck operations with possible streaming of this video may be the best way of mitigating malfeasance - which is now accounting for a significant proportion of airline fatalities. It won\x92t eliminate the risk for sure, but would likely help reduce it. Even in death, people would rather be thought of as innocent victims of a tragic accident and as such video would have a deterrent value.

I accept the reservations of many here. But I think it will come - the insurers will ultimately demand this.

The most complex, the least understood, the most vulnerable and thus the least predictable system on the plane is \x85.. the human brain.

MH370
Germanwings
SilkAir 185
EgyptAir 990
The 4 (? 5) planes on 9/11
And many more

Correct. Which is what makes this so difficult to address.

Pilots are best placed to analyze and understand accidents due to pilot error or weather or system / technical failures.

Pilots are probably not the best placed to understand crashes brought about by deliberate actions such as Germanwings, MH370 and this incident. It is outside their normal frame of reference, and professional pride (understandably) makes malfeasance hard to accept.

MH370 was a significant change. It was the first time that we can\x92t know with certainty what happened, nor who was responsible. Most have their suspicions, but they can only be suspicions.

Preserving your legacy can be a powerful driver. Maybe it\x92s just preserving your legacy for the sake of it. Maybe it\x92s to avoid causing distress or hardship or embarrassment to your family. Maybe it\x92s to protect an insurance policy. But there can be many reasons to seek \x93plausible deniability\x94 and anonymity even in death.

At some stage we may learn what else was on the CVR. Details of the final conversations have been minimal - conspicuously so. I suspect other investigative bodies are reviewing the CVR and may be leading the next phase of the investigation.

It is extremely difficult and confronting to acknowledge that we now find ourselves in an era when malfeasance by a pilot is the leading cause of airline fatalities. I suspect this trend will continue - as with trucks driving into pedestrians on our cities.

System / technical failures per se? I agree. With AF447, we saw a lot of spirited debate and much misunderstanding about the specifics of the various flight control laws.

I didn't mean to suggest pilots had the deepest understanding of these systems. But that pilots are best placed to analyze and understand the accidents that arose through such system / technical failures. Because pilots interface with these systems and have the best insight how a fellow pilot might react (rightly or wrongly) to a failure.

Preserving your legacy can be a powerful driver. Maybe it’s just preserving your legacy for the sake of it. Maybe it’s to avoid causing distress or hardship or embarrassment to your family. Maybe it’s to protect an insurance policy. But there can be many reasons to seek “plausible deniability” and anonymity even in death.

At some stage we may learn what else was on the CVR. Details of the final conversations have been minimal - conspicuously so. I suspect other investigative bodies are reviewing the CVR and may be leading the next phase of the investigation.

It is extremely difficult and confronting to acknowledge that we now find ourselves in an era when malfeasance by a pilot is the leading cause of airline fatalities. I suspect this trend will continue - as with trucks driving into pedestrians on our cities.

The released FDR data is quite detailed. Enough to answer what, when & how beyond all reasonable doubt

The released CVR data is conspicuously less detailed.Herein lies who & maybe why

The next phase of the investigation may need to be led by other investigative bodies.

Authority gradients likely significant

Did Captain cut fuel, get challenged by FO, and then fuel turned back on too late?

Or did Captain cut fuel, accuse FO to get it on the record, and then fuel turned back on too late?

If FO cut fuel, would expect a more assertive comment and faster intervention.

Agree

in an era where pilot malfeasance is the single largest cause of deaths in RPT operations, this is inevitable

Two reasons
1. Will have some deterrent value. With MH370 and here, we see some effort to create confusion and ambiguity rather than perform a simple act
2. Will aid investigation of further incidents (which are also inevitable)

No. Aviation med.

I understand the sensitivities. I really do. It brings me no pleasure to say this.

If you had another industry where the most common cause of death was malfeasance by employees, what would Joe Public expect to be done?

I don\x92t believe the pilots faces or bodies need to be included. A field of view incorporating the flight controls (and thence hands) would suffice.

Further, I believe we are at a point where some data should be streamed from the plane. Is it sensible in 2025 for data to be kept only on the plane and flown to the scene of the crash. Perhaps never to be found (MH370) or only found after an extensive delay (AF447).

And that is what will drive it.

We have all had to accept CCTV if we want to pump gas, scan groceries, walk into a bank, get on a bus, walk thru an airport, or catch an Uber.

We have the situation where pilot malfeasance is now the number 1 cause of RPT fatalities.

Guess where this is headed.

But there will be a lot of information on the CVR
The information on the CVR that has been publicly released is minimal. Conspicuously so
The preliminary report has said the switches were turned off, then on
There has been no AD or advisory, and Boeing has stated they don\x92t anticipate any.

Occam\x92s razor suggests that those privy to the CVR are confident in their assessment.

@ The Brigadier
@ Lead Balloon
Sadly, we are living in an era few of us imagined, and where previously unthinkable events are becoming more common. Wishing it weren't so or saying in ain't so won't make it not so.

I believe the industry should embrace change. If not, the industry risks finding itself embraced by change.

Better to be out in front of this issue and negotiating appropriate safeguards on CCTV monitoring, rather than being dragged along reluctantly and with less influence.

I agree

CCTV would not have prevented 9/11, nor Germanwings. The perpetrators in these incidents made no effort to hide their crime, and had no concern about their legacy after death.

CCTV may well have prevented MH370 as well as this case. With both, a premeditated plan had the effect of creating confusion and at least some doubt. That may well have been the intent of the method adopted (rather than simply nosing over).

As always, we are talking about risk management - not risk elimination.

I suspect the other push will be for some streaming to a ground station. CVR / FDR have served us well. But the world and technology have both moved on a lot these last 70 years.

Does it make sense to have the data stored only on the plane, and then flown to the scene of the crash? Once crashed, the data may never be found (MH370 thus far), may take years to find (AF447), or may be found to be damaged / compromised.

One pilot leaving the cockpit (we believe) and the act of switching off communications would have been streamed. That may (I say may) have provided sufficient deterrence.

It won't happen quickly. But it will most likely happen. Insurers, regulators, governments and the public will demand it.

You have hit the centre of the pupil of the bullseye. The current systems are not designed for the situation we are unfortunately now encountering. Does anyone seriously not think we will see more of these incidents in future. Again, we are in a new era. We need a new system for this new threat.

Implementing a measure to mitigate one threat can increase another threat. Risk is like a balloon - squashing it in one dimension often causes it to bulge in another direction.
The earliest threats to commercial aviation were hijackers and bombs and guns. Countered by airport security and scanners and chemical sniffers.
The next threat was 9/11 with unauthorised access to flight deck. Countered by impregnable doors - which has been exploited twice.
The current threat is the authorised pilots operating behind an impregnable door. Does anyone really think the industry is going to simply say "that's bad, but there is nothing we can do about it"

Dark times when many pilots will experience unpleasant intrusive thoughts that their colleague sitting beside them may do something like this. The odds may be 1 in a million, but it's still an unpleasant thing to contemplate - even if immediately rationalised away and dismissed.

Passengers will have similar unpleasant thoughts.

Tough questions and no easy answers.

I will offer the observation that medical and nursing staff globally are dealing with unprecedented rates of anxiety and depression. It is absolutely unprecedented. It my 35 year career, I have never seen anything like the last 4 years.