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| slats11
July 16, 2025, 06:54:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923467 |
tdracer
Now, we know for a fact that the Air India 787 crashed - hence the probability of a crash for this particular flight is not 1 in 5 million - it's ONE! That means the historical odds of this crash being due to an intentional act by a pilot (i.e. suicide) is ~5%, not one in 100 million (obviously a rough number, but you get the idea).
However by the time obvious mechanical issues, weather etc are excluded, the odds are way higher that 5% Subjects: None |
| slats11
July 16, 2025, 07:34:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923489 |
Thank you @Mrshed. Outstanding post.
At the risk of being (unintentionally) inflammatory, but as someone quite involved and (reasonably) knowledgeable in mental health, a few factors I'd call out here.
- mental health issues are grossly underestimated in all areas, particularly by those who haven't experienced them but also even by those that have. Period. - they are further under recognised in males compared to females, and so would still today disproportionately affect this sector - they are less likely to be called out by individuals in organisations/sectors that have a more explicit sense of hierarchy - they are less likely to be called out by individuals who have potential consequences to livelihood in doing so - pilots are humans too Pilots, possibly, have a set of personal traits that led to them becoming pilots in the first place, that likely make them less predisposed to mental health issues (on average) - for example, they are less likely to have a neurodivergence which has a very strong comorbidity with mental health concerns. However, they also possibly have a higher level of environmental factors that can contribute to mental health issues such as the sheer chronic level of accountability held and the stress that this could cause. They certainly work in an environment which has fundamental reasons that would discourage sharing of mental health concerns, and even reduce self recognition of these issues. A few examples only, certainly not exhaustive. But TL;DR - I'd posit that the rate of truly experienced mental health issues experienced in pilots is higher than whatever rate almost anyone is thinking. Around 12% of people globally have a mental health issue at any given time - even being incredibly conservative, the rate in pilots is clearly going to be at least in single whole figure percentages (which is far from rare). Obviously the majority of these issues are not going to be those with severe outcomes, but some will. And almost all mental health issues tend to affect cognitive ability to at least some level. Slowness in action and fatigue are diagnostic criteria for many of the most common mental health conditions for example. As a critical care physician (with AVMED background), these last few years we seeing unprecedented rates of self-reported stress, anxiety, depression, and deliberate self-harm. This is being experienced in most western countries (perhaps globally, but I have less direct knowledge of non-western countries). It is absolutely off the scale. In my 35 year career, I have never seen anything like the last 4 years. Sadly, I am confident this phenomenon will result in more incidents like Germanwings, MH370 and this. Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): Mental Health |
| slats11
July 16, 2025, 12:52:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923720 |
I can see from your posts, slats11, that you're 'in the trenches' on this extraordinarily important issue. What are your thoughts about how to encourage complete openness of flight crew about potential mental health and other medical issues?
People are understandably circumspect about disclosing medical issues to life insurers, travel insurers, employers, the authority issuing their driving licence... The oft-quoted solution is to quarantine whatever is disclosed to AVMED. Then again, if the physician treating Lubitz had reported his poor state of mental health, Germanwings may have been prevented. The distinction between confidentially and reporting due to an "overriding public interest" is a broad and fuzzy grey zone - not a sharp dividing line. Damned if you report, and damned if you don't. The reality is we are poor at assessing mental health and the risk of suicide at the individual level. There are a number of risk assessment tools - the fact there are a number of these tools tells you that none of them are particularly accurate. . The data however is absolutely rock solid at a population level. The demographics that are relevant to aviation are 1. Males are higher risk than females 2. Older males are higher risk than younger males - and here the flight deck authority gradient is important, CRM notwithstanding 3. Males utilise more violent means to suicide - and are more likely to take others with them. Several recent deliberate crashes reflect these demographics - SilkAir, MH370, and (I believe) this crash. Germanwings was obviously an exception. One additional risk factor for pilots (and physicians and other authority figures) is they are used to mostly getting their way. When broader life doesn't go their way, it can be very tough and unfamiliar.. Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): Authority Gradient Mental Health |
| slats11
July 16, 2025, 13:07:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923725 |
This is a result of various things, but essentially it comes down to when the globalist system has removed all slack and shock absorbtion from people's everyday lives and interactions, then something has to give. That something is the next weakest link in the chain which is the wet-ware inside our skulls that has not had time to evolve defences against the type of threats that have changed massively since we were hunter-gatherers.
It's Covid - which really screwed a lot of people up, and continues to do so. It's social isolation and working from home It's social media which can perpetuate extreme views It's inflation and cost of living pressures It's a falling standard of living - we are the first generation in centuries who will leave their children worse off It's that society is polarised on every axis - male V female, generational divides, racial disharmony, intolerance with those of a different political ideology, employer V employee, It's the 4th turning for those who subscribe to Neil Howe Society is not doing particularly well at moment. Pilots and aviation are part of that society. Subjects: None |
| slats11
July 17, 2025, 00:02:00 GMT permalink Post: 11924063 |
PC767
Before I dip out again I want to remove my horsehair wig, reach past the pilot peaked hat and put on my dusty old custodian helmet - police. I dealt with many suicides from finding bodies, informing and liasing with families/loved ones and writing statements and reports for the Coroners Court. My experience tells me that suicide is only rational to the suicidal sole. Any attempts to discredit the theory based on why they might do it, how they may do it and what might be a better way are irrelevant.
Suicide cases I have dealt with have been difficult because of personal, cultural or financial reasons, be that of the suicidal person or those they left. Pride suprisingly is often important - not wanting to be thought badly of. You may question, theoretically, how one cannot but be thought badly of when taking the lives of several hundred people results from ones action. Thats a rational response, a suicidal person may, theoretically, prefer people to consider that they died heroically. It makes little sense to those of us not contemplating suicide. I know of a case a former colleague dealt with where a suicidal person drove head on into another vehicle which contained an innocent family. His family understood he had carried out a threat he had made, but there was insufficent evidence for the court. His death, and another was held as accidental. I dealt with people who, for instance, simply hanged themselves, thus voiding life insurance. The family asked if it could be reported as an accident. It could not. I dealt with the case of a man who threw himself of a bridge, landing on his head, at my feet. His final words to me being "I'm not going to be the devil's dog, you know what happens now." The family had try to supress his psycological issues and refused to accept a verdict of death by suicide from the Coroner's Court, when it clearly was. I dealt with a case of a young man who drove his vehicle at speed into a railway bridge. On the face of it a terrible accident, but with background and witness evidence it was accepted a suicide. I could go on. MedicAn
And there's already been discussion on the difficulty (read "inability to do a quantitative assessment") of objectively assessing the severity of a MH condition, including of suicidal ideation. There are people who have passive suicidal ideation for years and never attempt, for ex.
JustusW
I
have no idea why you would exclude the only actually confirmed pilot suicide where we have a psychotherapists treatment data as evidence.
New details in the probe of last month\x92s Air India crash are shifting the focus to the senior pilot in the cockpit
A black-box recording of dialogue between the flight\x92s two pilots indicates it was the captain who
turned off switches
that controlled fuel flowing to the plane\x92s two engines, according to people familiar with U.S. officials\x92 early assessment of evidence uncovered in the crash investigation.
The first officer who was flying the Boeing 787 Dreamliner asked the more-experienced captain why he moved the switches to the \x93cutoff\x94 position after it climbed off the runway, these people said. The first officer expressed surprise and then panicked, these people said, while the captain seemed to remain calm Anyway, I think I have had (more than) my fair say, and will bow out at this point as things proceed to their inevitable conclusion. Respect to all. Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): Mental Health |