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DozyWannabe
October 18, 2013, 21:40:00 GMT permalink Post: 8106344 |
BA was able to make money on Concorde as in positive cash flow. But they were basically given the airplanes. The commercial failure aspect comes from the simple fact that no one wanted them to build any more (what I've heard is that at least one production Concorde was built but never put into service - basically becoming a donor for spares - not sure if that's true).
I also suspect it was too much of a point design - it didn't have the range to be useful in the Pacific.
CONCORDE SST : CONCORDE B
If BA (and Air France) honestly thought Concorde was a profit center (rather than brand prestige), they would have wanted more
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The same thing would have applied to the Boeing SST if it hadn't been cancelled (I knew a guy that worked on the Boeing SST inlet control system - talk about complex
![]() ![]() Last edited by DozyWannabe; 18th October 2013 at 22:02 . Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): Boeing Boeing SST British Airways Brooklands G-BBDG Intakes |
DozyWannabe
October 19, 2013, 00:56:00 GMT permalink Post: 8106519 |
The Concorde and Boeing SST business cases were built on a couple flawed assumptions.
First, jet fuel would remain dirt cheap and the higher fuel burn of supersonic travel not contribute significantly to cost of operation - which was blown out of the water by the first Arab oil embargo.
Second, that the majority of demand for air travel would remain for the 'premium' product - basically that the majority of people would happily pay a premium to get there faster. This assumption applied to most people who flew on jets in the 1960's - either business travelers or well to do people that weren't that worried about what it cost.
Reality was it went the opposite direction - a shift that started with the 747 and other widebodies. The economies of the wide body aircraft lowered the cost of air travel to the 'everybody' level. Suddenly there was a whole new class of air traveler - people for whom an extra $100 airfare meant they just wouldn't go, never mind that they'd get there in half the time. In short, they didn't foresee air travel becoming just another commodity - the low cost trend that continues today.
The reality was, both the Concorde and the SST needed to sell hundreds of copies to even begin to justify the development costs. The evolution of air travel into a low cost commodity, combined with the rising costs of jet fuel, insured that would never happen.
Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): Afterburner/Re-heat Airbus Boeing Boeing SST Sidestick |
DozyWannabe
October 22, 2013, 15:57:00 GMT permalink Post: 8111972 |
...and the design of adjacent engines must have been seen as a potential hazard during engine failures and fires or tyre blow ups.Comet and VC10 as well as their russian counterparts had similar flaws in their designs.Had the Boeing Supersonic Airliner taken off with its different engine design who knows if supersonic airliner transport might have taken a different track?
As for the Concorde nacelle/engine arrangement - it didn't really have that large an impact on the F-BTSC accident - because even if the nacelles weren't grouped, the hot gases from the burning fuel would still have had a negative impact on the airflow to the adjacent engine. If I recall correctly, the investigators calculated the way the damage spread through the structure and control connections and proved that even if all four engines were still producing the correct thrust, the fire would still have caused sufficient structural damage to prevent the aircraft making Le Bourget. The nacelle structure itself was proven to be strong enough to withstand an uncontained failure of the engine when it actually happened on the line. Apropos of nothing, the separate "podded" design was proven to be no protection against damage to adjacent engines when the inboard starboard engine of El Al 1862 took out the outboard as it fell away. Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): Air France 4590 Boeing F-BTSC Le Bourget |
DozyWannabe
October 22, 2013, 19:01:00 GMT permalink Post: 8112206 |
Again, as I referred to earlier, the Concorde "B" on the drawing board when the project was cancelled was intended to do away with reheat/afterburner entirely!
The problems a modern project will run into include the fact that a lot of the research will be in the wind - and sadly a lot of the people involved are no longer with us. Subjects: None |
DozyWannabe
October 23, 2013, 16:19:00 GMT permalink Post: 8113698 |
Subjects: None |
DozyWannabe
January 09, 2014, 00:07:00 GMT permalink Post: 8254430 |
There's also no need for triplication for a start, at least not from the point of view establishing correct system output.
All that an analogue control system is doing is implementing a series of differential equations.
The problem with software systems is that they're way too complex
Analogue control circuits are also largely immune to component selection ... a capacitor is still a capacitor. Obsolescence is a significantly reduced problem.
We won't be seeing A380s, etc. flying once the spares run out.
Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): Airbus FBW (Fly By Wire) |
DozyWannabe
July 23, 2014, 22:41:00 GMT permalink Post: 8577184 |
It's a fascinating posit, and one for aviation nerds to discuss at length down the pub - I'll give it that!
The general trend follows, but he doesn't spend much time on external factors (such as the 747's degree of success being aided significantly by the tribulations of Lockheed's L1011 development and MD's reaction to the DC-10's flaws). It's interesting that the article writer seized on the paragraph about Concorde to frame his article though - it's almost a footnote in the original journal piece! Subjects: None |
DozyWannabe
July 24, 2014, 18:33:00 GMT permalink Post: 8578404 |
Concorde was only mentioned in the original journal piece as it was (naturally) an extreme outlier on the general trend.
Geopolitical factors are just one of many things that need to be taken into account with analysis of this kind and it is right for you to point out that not everything is necessarily measurable as a physical quantity.
Subjects: None |
DozyWannabe
April 10, 2015, 22:54:00 GMT permalink Post: 8939600 |
@Bellerophon:
Interesting info - cheers! As a sort-of tangent, as an aviation-mad nipper I watched and recorded the 1988 BBC Concorde Special, and pretty much wore the VHS tape out. The skipper on that flight was Hutch (who also just-so-happened to be a BBC aviation correspondent on the side). The reason I bring it up was that the FO was Chris Norris, who mentioned that he was just about to be made Captain - and regretfully that meant he'd be leaving the Concorde flight deck, most likely for a subsonic short-haul type (he reckoned it'd be the B757). As I recall, I think I remember reading that Capt. Norris did end up returning to Concorde as a captain before the type was retired - so I'm guessing that previous experience as FO did count when making the bid. Was that the case? Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): Captains Chris Norris |