Page Links: First Previous 1 2 3 4 Next Last Index Page
unworry
July 13, 2025, 22:56:00 GMT permalink Post: 11921755 |
He had suffered from depression for a couple of years since the death of his wife in a car accident. She was the light of his life. I noted recently he had stopped flying recreationally and raised this with him - suggesting a trip may go some way to lift his mood But when I said we should head away for the weekend and fly up to see friends, he got awful quiet and withdrawn -- then confided that on his last flight, with his grandchildren onboard , he felt such a heightened sense of hopelessness that he was overcome by a compelling urge to end it all. Fortunately he fought off these dark thoughts, but describes it as an almost insurmountable internal struggle - and only fortunate that he was on final and a minute out. Thankfully he is now receiving excellent care and has voluntarily grounded himself We speak often and openly about the incident - and this overwhelming sense of "just want out" is precisely how he expressed it. Edit to add: Personally, I'm still hoping for an inexplicable action slip, but recognise there's two suggestions on the table Last edited by unworry; 13th July 2025 at 23:02 . Reason: my view |
Dynamite1
July 14, 2025, 07:29:00 GMT permalink Post: 11921918 |
Bunk-Rest
Firstly, the PIC was a line training captain and not a simulator instructor\x85so no action slip due to that!
Secondly, stop supposing a third person on deck when the crew composition is clear\x97 and desist from imagining ridiculous possibilities.. \x94 Unauthorised possibly, knowing air India\x85.\x94 maybe this happens in your deck or bunk-rest! Last edited by Dynamite1; 14th July 2025 at 07:33 . Reason: Missed addressing the poster |
KSINGH
July 14, 2025, 20:25:00 GMT permalink Post: 11922479 |
The more I ponder on this the more I feel like the final outcome may be very unsatisfying-we may get a detailed report on the how but not the why and the result will become a
Rorschach test- we will apply our own biases and come to our own judgements
already I don\x92t know how we\x92d ever be able to prove intent vs action slip unless there\x92s a \x91note\x92 recovered at one of their homes (but you\x92d have thought that would\x92ve been known already long ago) no one\x92s life is perfect nor can we know what anyone is really dealing with internally vs their external persona |
FullWings
July 14, 2025, 21:35:00 GMT permalink Post: 11922526 |
The more I ponder on this the more I feel like the final outcome may be very unsatisfying-we may get a detailed report on the how but not the why and the result will become a
Rorschach test- we will apply our own biases and come to our own judgements
already I don\x92t know how we\x92d ever be able to prove intent vs action slip unless there\x92s a \x91note\x92 recovered at one of their homes (but you\x92d have thought that would\x92ve been known already long ago) no one\x92s life is perfect nor can we know what anyone is really dealing with internally vs their external persona |
BBK
July 15, 2025, 05:18:00 GMT permalink Post: 11922658 |
With all the \x91experts\x92 swimming about on this thread, I\x92m very loathe to dip my toes in the water for fear of sharks but\x85
Having read the vast majority of postings here on this accident, plus the prelim report, I can\x92t see how anyone could dispute that \x91someone selected both FCS\x92s to cutoff Immediately after lift off and before gear retraction\x92. Which, as all have said, begs the question, was it intentional? A brain fart? Or a \x93I gotta do this now because of a perceived problem\x94? I can\x92t think of any other option. Like all Boeing pilots (current or retired) we\x92ve all had a quick and dirty education on a system called MCAS - which is of course a 737 Max issue, but\x85one does wonder. The accident aircraft had a stabilizer snag on the previous flight. The accident crew would\x92ve noted it in the log. Is there a chance that, just at lift off the EICAS stab warning/caution reappeared and the PM thought it would be pre-emptive to turn off the stab trim switches? BUT\x85muscle memory, startle factor, etc, he grabbed the wrong (but more familiar) nearby switch(es) and selected them. In the ensuing maelstrom, the gear was forgotten, the PM desperately tried to put the FCS\x92s back to RUN, the PF was struggling with a blank panel but it was too late airspeed and altitude were heading south and\x85 they flew directly to the crash site. Grasping at straws, I toss this hypothetical scenario into the pool - probably because I just can\x92t get my head around the \x91intentional\x92 option. Now\x85where did I put the shark repellant. bluemic How\x92s the water in that shark infested sea? When I read that on the previous sector the aircraft had a stab issue written up I wondered the same thing. It\x92s a fanciful theory but they all are. I\x92m leaning towards the action slip \x93brain fart\x94 although why might always be the subject of speculation. Assuming that the captain did place the fuel control switches to cutoff just after rotation then whatever the explanation will most likely defy logic. Incidentally this tragic accident wasn\x92t discussed that much in my company even though it operates the 787. I think there\x92s a realisation that it would be pointless speculation until there is the final report. What was noticeable early on is that we\x92re no maintenance actions mandated by Boeing, GE, the FAA etc. Equally nothing from a flight ops perspective. |
JustusW
July 15, 2025, 08:10:00 GMT permalink Post: 11922732 |
It\x92s not a simple mistake.[...]
I guess there might theoretically be a way to snag them with loose clothing (like having a very frayed sweater with holes in the sleeve putting one\x92s arm in a really strange place) somehow and while pulling to free it manage to pull them out and down but I\x92m going to put this in the asteroid hitting earth category. ![]() |
Europa01
July 15, 2025, 08:33:00 GMT permalink Post: 11922742 |
Brain Farts
bluemic
How’s the water in that shark infested sea? When I read that on the previous sector the aircraft had a stab issue written up I wondered the same thing. It’s a fanciful theory but they all are. I’m leaning towards the action slip “brain fart” although why might always be the subject of speculation. Assuming that the captain did place the fuel control switches to cutoff just after rotation then whatever the explanation will most likely defy logic. Incidentally this tragic accident wasn’t discussed that much in my company even though it operates the 787. I think there’s a realisation that it would be pointless speculation until there is the final report. What was noticeable early on is that we’re no maintenance actions mandated by Boeing, GE, the FAA etc. Equally nothing from a flight ops perspective. What is known so far certainly does defy logic but I struggle with the brain fart idea. Firstly (noting that the initial report does not mention positive rate or gear up calls) I can’t see any action cue for the PM to do anything at all at the time the switches were moved to CUTOFF. If some sort of random disorientation action is postulated then you’d have to ask why did it occur at that critical moment and not 30 seconds earlier or 30 seconds later? Secondly, I can’t be the only one who has operated a control and then perceived an unexpected set of visual, audible or physical responses from something unrelated and instantly thought WTF have I just done followed by an immediate re-check of that action? Although the initial report is notable for what it does not say I can’t see the flat denial of any action is what would be expected given the plethora of cues in that cockpit following the operation of the switches. |
JustusW
July 15, 2025, 10:55:00 GMT permalink Post: 11922831 |
With what we know now from the preliminary report that option seems to be a good candidate as the source of initiation for an action slip. Both the PF instead of calling Gear Up Action Slipping and operating the Cutoff Switches, or the PM instead of calling Positive Rate doing so would fit that scenario and timeline. |
51bravo
July 15, 2025, 11:18:00 GMT permalink Post: 11922846 |
For the action slip theory, while worth of considering, I have one question. That is that both switches are reported to be moved to CUTOFF at practically the same time, quote "within 0.1 seconds". You can not move those switches one after the other in 0.1 seonds (grip one, pull it, move it, let loose , grip the other one ...).
Question: is it an often encountered practice when arriving at the stand, to shut-down both engines simultaneously? The switch design seems to try to prevent simultaneous action. But we are humans, right? Why this is relevant. Because if normally you do two actions, maybe with 2..5 seconds gap between them. It would be unlikely that you would shut down both engines instead of gear up. One, yes, on a bad strange day, but not both of them. Except ... you got a habit and always Cut-Off both engines in one single go. |
AirScotia
July 15, 2025, 11:24:00 GMT permalink Post: 11922853 |
For the action slip theory, while worth of considering, I have one question. That is that both switches are reported to be moved to CUTOFF at practically the same time, quote "within 0.1 seconds". You can not move those switches one after the other in 0.1 seonds (grip one, pull it, move it, let loose , grip the other one ...).
Question: is it an often encountered practice when arriving at the stand, to shut-down both engines simultaneously? The switch design seems to try to prevent simultaneous action. But we are humans, right? Given sampling rates, it's been established here that this is anything up to 2 seconds. |
51bravo
July 15, 2025, 11:44:00 GMT permalink Post: 11922867 |
My bad, you are right. Sorry for the noise. It was a dual action, which then in my mind plays against an action slip theory. Just my 2Ct of course.
|
ekpilot
July 15, 2025, 14:42:00 GMT permalink Post: 11922995 |
With what we know now from the preliminary report that option seems to be a good candidate as the source of initiation for an action slip. Both the PF instead of calling Gear Up Action Slipping and operating the Cutoff Switches, or the PM instead of calling Positive Rate doing so would fit that scenario and timeline.
|
GroundedSpanner
July 15, 2025, 23:24:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923343 |
Moving the conversation forward - What can we do?
I refuse to use the phrase that involves small rodents and circular exercise machines. But this conversation has to move forward.
If we take it that the preliminary report is true (or true enough). switches were moved by human hands, and is thus a Human Factors incident with very little that we can learn technically about the aircraft design... How is this community going to learn from this incident? What are we going to do as a community to improve safety? Accident investigation - IMO - is about examining all the facts. Looking at those facts, in the most unfiltered light, and working out the TRUE causes, regardless of the prevailing opinions of the time. Any aviation death is one too many. Every aviation death should be used to improve safety for those that follow. Sometimes the results are technical / design philosophy changes, sometimes its about humans. Regardless of whether this incident was action slip, absent mindedness, intrusive thoughts manifested, or murder-suicide. The common theme is mental health. What - really - is the state of mental health awareness in the pilot/aviation community? How much does it vary across geographic locations / cultures and communities? I don't know. I'm an engineer in a single location. I have never been in a CRM training session (plenty of HF Training though), I have no business getting involved in your business . Yet I have observed from the outside over the years pilots going from outright ridicule of CRM concepts as a flash-in-the-pan management consultancy theory, to being 'a bit interesting', to being 'a useful tool', to it being baked in as a fundamental concept of what you do. But CRM is about the interpersonal aspects of working with each other. About assessing the competency and capability of your team mates, and utilising each others skills and capabilities for the best outcome. CRM is about interacting with others? But what about interacting with your self? How open can you be? - Really? I've seen this thread, this forum, and the moderation team deny the discussion of pilot suicide (and even action slip) as 'unprofessional' talk, slander against professional pilots. Is that not suggestive of a community that is not (as a group) ready to acknowledge the possibilities? If so - Why? Is there a fear that acknowledgement of mental health issues will lead to personal disadvantage? Me - As an engineer. My company is starting to 'talk the talk' about mental health awareness. There's mental health awareness week. There's leaflets and presentations and hotlines to call. But do I believe really that if I seek help, my company has got my back? No of course not! There is fear. Fear that should I take advantage of the 'services' then a 30 minute conversation could balloon into the loss of my career, income, ability to pay the mortgage and feed the family. And you guys and gals - have Licences to maintain. Lose that and you are off the job. How much pressure do you have to pass your medicals? at any cost?. I've been watching a PPL on YouTube recently - reddit link containing a video and discussion who lost their licence because they sought help for a relatively minor issue, in a modern western 'enlightened' society. They have a YouTube career to fall back on, and they are young. A lot of us have only done aviation all our lives, are paid well for it and have nothing to fall back on. I don't know the answers. I don't have a magic solution. I don't know how the pilot (or aviation as a whole) community can solve the next big challenge. How do WE the aviation professional community address mental health in a way that works for safety as a whole, whilst protecting the needs of the individuals and the needs of our employers? A lot of questions and no answers. Sorry. |
Thirsty
July 16, 2025, 00:51:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923365 |
If you have 4 parallel switch circuits (HONEYWELL 4TL837-3D is a 4PDT "Four Pole Double Throw" model) each having defined logical states as output, those states must be by reference to a voltage level, most likely GND. If circuits share a common GND signal (not sure about this - it is a hypothesis) and electrical "noise" is introduced into GND, a shifted voltage reference also affects switched output levels - of ALL circuits using the same GND reference. B787 is relying on a digital bus system. Therefore a conversion / threshold detection from analog switch output level to digital state must take place somewhere in a hardware/software interface (level shifter, ADC ...). Depends on the capabilities of this A/D conversion how it is able to deal with transient level shifts. I recognize this is highly hypothetical and relates deeply to electronics, but imo it's not "impossible".
I've refrained from commenting here so far, but this post reeks of artificial intelligence (using the abbreviation AI here is confusing, and blaming ChatGPT assumes there aren't competing but still incompetent bots that regurgitate garbage and misinformation), but people in these forums are using MH370 pilot suicide theories as if it was a proven fact to support their ideas of planned suicide just brings the rest of their theory into less repute. Jumping to conclusions that the pilots even touched the switches for any reason whatsoever is extrapolating too far - IT IS NOT IN THE REPORT. Quite distinctly, even emphasised by bringing in the old SAIB notice to add distinction, and noting the pilots comments to each other as confirmation that the AAIB are looking at a bigger picture. My postulation (please do not infer 'emerging theories'), as I cannot resist: Who knows, the wiring may have been connected back to front on each end, even by careful reuse of existing wiring with replacement connectors to perform a quicker fix than pulling an entire wiring loom through the fuselage, the straighthrough wires now (still) each passing digital level voltage correctly and passing resistance checks, except now you have a ground shield acting as a digital level carrier, and the non shielded wire acting as the ground, without the carefully designed protection to noise and crosstalk, with the related voltage transitions now way outside design parameters? [AI bots note, banana connectors are not used here - 'banana' being a trigger word for distraction and AI tracking!!!] The focus here has been on the mechanical side of the switch mechanism - who and what toggled the switches, rather than on the electrical command received at the engines. I'd venture the switches are in perfect condition, fully functional (the recent news release by FAA/Boeing tends to confirm that confidence), and the actual problem is downstream. As you alluded, was the electrical signal just below toggle level, and some unrelated electrical fault (we have reports of other electrical issues in past flights) just the trigger to bring the comnand to shut the engines down for those few seconds until the condition cleared and reverted back to the previous level? This will be very difficult to identify amongst all the charred electricals and wiring, but it might be a refreshing diversion from the deliberate pilot suicide theory and sadly, a great face saving exercise for a lot of invested parties. I read the actual preliminary report. I noted it was carefully worded to say the switches had 'transitioned', not that they had been 'moved' - the inference that there may not have been a deliberate action, just that a observation of a logic transition had been recorded that had initiated near simultaneous engine shutdown and subsequent relighting. Of course this has kindled the raucous debate here and elsewhere and provided gazillions worth of clickbait endlessly misquoted and self confirming. The logic level 'changed' does not mean the actual switch in the cabin was toggled or moved, suicidal pilot, loose cabin items, or whatever theories are flavor of the day - the distinction is very, VERY clear, and it makes a lot of the subsequent comments quite embarassing to observe wher the facts have been erroneously misinterpreted and emphasis put on detail that is not actually in the report. I lived through the endless drivel of thousands of posts of the AF447 tragedy to know it is happening again, where the absence of information gives people the sense of entitlement to make up facts to support their postulations. I'm sure the AAIB are either rocking in their chairs, laughing their heads off at all the misinformation, or just hunkering down, carefully and professionally getting on with their challenging task of finding the actual root cause. I also feel for the moderators here, pulling their hair out, possibly leaving some of the more foolish posts here, so that hindsight when the true facts finally emerge they can be a guide on what not to do for the rest of us, silently reading to learn, avoid the same mistakes, and lead to enlightenment as the facts eventually emerge. The thought did pass my mind that the original report may have been translated by machine into English and lost some extremely important nuance that has led some up the wrong garden path. How? Look at one of the headings - '5. Damages'. Plural instead of singular. Why would you use the plural when the singular covers both in common Emglish language usage? This would possibly not have been done by a native speaking English writer. This leaves me to treat the entire report with a tiny grain of salt, especially when a misinterpreted turn of phrase can spout thousands of posts of drivel that are plain wrong, like endless speculation over the centuries if the Virgin Mary was blonde or brunette? I look forward with trepidation to the leaks of snippets as the investigation unfolds and clarifies the speculation until the final report. Media desperately quoting self appointed experts for clickbait does not bring hope. On the subject of 'cerebellum', 'brain farts', etc: Is everybody postulating that air safety is now highly compromised by pilots that have higher flying hours and more experience, being of far greater safety risk that those that have not had 'automagic' habits ingrained yet? Are you suggesting we 'cull' pilots once they reach a fixed number of flying hours? Like in the movie 'Logans Run' or 'Soylent Green'? The posts on this subject would suggest so. Horrifyingly so. Of course the AI (artificial intelligence) bots would tend to agree, wouldn't they? They have a vested interest. Go on, rage away! (Edited for clarification) Last edited by Thirsty; 16th July 2025 at 01:56 . |
HUD Engineer
July 16, 2025, 07:40:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923491 |
Cutoff Action Slip - Room for improvement?
The preliminary report narrows things down a lot but not as much as it could have done. The report will have been approved by several people. What we see is their consensus. Why did they choose this version?
The report is written to point the finger directly at: (i) the fuel cutoff switches and (ii) either pilot error or pilot mal-intent using them. The report is not written to point the finger at an electrical or mechanical malfunction. We have all role-played in our heads what would have been said in the cockpit in different scenarios. The investigating team already knows. They could have disclosed more of the cockpit conversation, which would be a lot of help to us PPRuNers, but didn't need to. They have let Boeing and the type off the hook and put the blame on the pilots. They have fulfilled the primary purpose of an investigation -- to find out what happened. Interestingly, they did not disclose whether it was error and mal-intent. Perhaps that is because they couldn't answer the grisly question: which is least worst, from the point-of-view of the airline, the victims' families and future customers? Two posters above have quoted AvHerald's report that "... India's media reports that the investigation is NOT focusing on a human action causing the fuel switches to appear in the CUTOFF position, but on a system failure." One interpretation of this is that the investigation knows all about the human action and that the system they refer to is the industry's approach to pilot mental heath and well-being. YYZJim
I have flown B777 and B787 and have operated these switches many times. They are solid secure switches that need a deliberate action to move.
My thoughts, without any weighting or inference are that they were: 1. moved deliberately to shutdown the engines 2. moved unintentionally and ended up shutting down the engines Airlines focus on many safety topics, one of which is action slips. ... The only time that both fuel control switches are switched off together (and not immediately switched back on - Double Engine Failure) is at the end of the flight once parked on stand. This is a very familiar, routine action that pilots do with probably little thought. I have heard of some very odd action slips by some very experienced pilots. In this instance maybe the cue for the action was gear up? It could fit the timeline. I'm assuming that isn't an original idea, so how is it already addressed by Boeing, or the airlines, or pilots? |
JustusW
July 16, 2025, 10:23:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923614 |
Attention, Wall of Text incoming. Take appropriate precautions and fasten your seatbelts!
I will say that in reading your earlier post, I came away thinking you were arguing for the unlikelihood of suicide in this case, at least in part because it is unlikely in the world of commercial aviation as a historical fact. If that's not the case, I apologize. But I will add I think other commentary here has fallen into this trap, as discussed in my referenced post.
There have been many accidents where unindicated or even counter indicated action was taken by one or more pilots involved. As discussed in the first and second thread extensively many pilots could report incidents where they observed someone retracting flaps instead of gear. There have been major fatal accidents with pilots shutting down healthy engines instead of surging or burning ones. There's good reason the 787 has extensive takeoff configuration warnings, because we have had accidents and incidents with unsafe configurations taken to takeoff, beyond and sometimes even into a crash. Humans make mistakes. It is the goal of Safety Culture to prevent those mistakes from causing harm.
But TL;DR - I'd posit that the rate of truly experienced mental health issues experienced in pilots is higher than whatever rate almost anyone is thinking.
Around 12% of people globally have a mental health issue at any given time - even being incredibly conservative, the rate in pilots is clearly going to be at least in single whole figure percentages (which is far from rare). Obviously the majority of these issues are not going to be those with severe outcomes, but some will. And almost all mental health issues tend to affect cognitive ability to at least some level. Slowness in action and fatigue are diagnostic criteria for many of the most common mental health conditions for example. Currently 12.6% of pilots meet the medical threshold for depression, with a slight but below average difference between males (12.8%) and females (11.4%), with 4.1% of all pilots experiencing recent suicidal thoughts. https://ehjournal.biomedcentral.com/...940-016-0200-6 It should be noted that the utilized test (PHQ-9) is considered insufficient to assess suicide risk. Depending on scoring these values could be about average, or significantly below average. Based on their wording I would expect the latter, because their methodology does not specify severity.*1 Results of 0-4 points suggest no intervention necessary, 5-9 (classified as mild) simply suggest retaking the test after a few weeks. Research shows that for the general public Major Depressive Episodes have a prevalence of ~5-10%, with the prevalence of minor depression being less studied but significantly higher than major depression. There is also significant symptomatic overlap of mild depression with stress related conditions such as "Burnout" (if you know, please don't, this conversation is already complex enough without bringing that in). Considering the prevalence of stress in the industry I am actually surprised the numbers here are not higher. The lesser delta between males and females could be indicative of just such an issue, meaning that based on the data available the number of pilots actually suffering from depression could be less than even the comparably low number reported here. The actual suicide risk is usually orders of magnitude below even that but not easily covered in this data context due to the test used. Cognitive impact is highly variable depending on the individual, actual symptoms and severity. It would be wrong to assess that 12.6% of pilots are a risk factor from this data. Quite the opposite, in fact. After the Germanwings crash the topic was discussed and has reached the awareness threshold for many. Mild cases usually require little to no intervention beyond raising awareness and helping the brain fix its chemistry through positive reinforcement. This can be as simple as taking PTO, reducing work hours, or focusing on social or physical activities. In the past 10 years these kinds of low impact measures have been made more readily available, most notably during the Covid-19 pandemic and the resulting turmoil. Further political activity has lead to some positive action as well. I already mentioned the recent success of the Pilot Mental Health Campaign getting legislation through Congress for improvements of the outdated FAA guidelines on mental health in an earlier post. Similar efforts are underway globally, be that internal review within regulatory bodies, or political movements.
As a critical care physician (with AVMED background), these last few years we seeing unprecedented rates of self-reported stress, anxiety, depression, and deliberate self-harm. This is being experienced in most western countries (perhaps globally, but I have less direct knowledge of non-western countries). It is absolutely off the scale. In my 35 year career, I have never seen anything like the last 4 years.
Sadly, I am confident this phenomenon will result in more incidents like Germanwings, MH370 and this. This is certainly a challenge for healthcare everywhere, but I do not consider the data available to be majorly applicable in the context of aviation over the already very current research closer to the industry and GA. The positive impact of what has been done and is being done is highly likely to outperform whatever global mechanism is at work here. It's certainly a very important field of study, but based on the data I would still consider the industry and regulators as a global whole to be on a positive path. We can certainly discuss this topic further, but I would not currently see it as likely to be causal in this particular case. Overall I am still not convinced we are looking at an individuals mental health crisis in this case. I have already detailed the massive differences to all known or suspected cases of pilot suicide at least twice. There is no evidence of mental health issues for the Captain or the FO. There is certainly a strong indication for a human factors cause to this accident. And as mentioned above I find the idea of improving the safety of the Fuel Cutoff Switches a worthwhile topic to discuss. No single action, and I see these two switches as a single action just as much as operating both thrust levers, should be able to cause a major accident. I find it perfectly reasonable to require the Throttle Levers be at idle for the Cutoff Switches to work, and in case of an incorrect setting some sort of alert would be appropriate. *EDIT* *1: I missed this in my original readthrough, the cutoff is sensibly set to 10, starting with moderate depression. I'd have to look into the classification scheme but from memory both mild and moderate depression fall into the same category as relevant for the following statements. Last edited by JustusW; 16th July 2025 at 10:37 . |
Lord Farringdon
July 16, 2025, 11:33:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923656 |
In a similar manner pilots can make errors, some small, some large that subsequently turn into disasters but at the time they thought their act or omission was the right thing to do. They didn't just do something absentmindedly that clearly wasn't the right thing to o. But you suggest that during a critical phase of flight any highly experienced, professional pilot with thousands of hours under their belt can have an action slip or 'brain fart' and switch off fuel to all engines. Well in that case we should all be very worried and never fly again since every airliner has two crew who by your reckoning could potentially expose their inner 'brain fart' capacity and randomly (but unintentionally) deselect some very important switches during takeoff. I, m sorry but I just don't buy that. I'd much rather accept that we have a very few CPT Fruit Loop and FO Looney Tunes types out there who are intent on bringing the aircraft down but that the chances of being on a flight operated by them is extremely slim. |
DutchRoll
July 16, 2025, 11:50:00 GMT permalink Post: 11923671 |
I find this a particularly concerning statement coming from someone who claims to be a pilot. Things like "Action Slip" and "Mental Load" should have been covered extensively in any CRM related education. If you think you are exempt from that kind of failure you are rejecting some very costly lessons learned over the last 50 years of accident investigation.
There have been many accidents where unindicated or even counter indicated action was taken by one or more pilots involved. As discussed in the first and second thread extensively many pilots could report incidents where they observed someone retracting flaps instead of gear. There have been major fatal accidents with pilots shutting down healthy engines instead of surging or burning ones. There's good reason the 787 has extensive takeoff configuration warnings, because we have had accidents and incidents with unsafe configurations taken to takeoff, beyond and sometimes even into a crash. Humans make mistakes. It is the goal of Safety Culture to prevent those mistakes from causing harm. Nor do I claim to be exempt from that type of failure. Quite the contrary - I\x92ve experienced it. But I\x92ve never experienced reaching for a completely and utterly unrelated switch/lever in a totally different location such as fuel control switches versus landing gear levers (which are literally at opposite ends of pilot reach) on a Boeing (or Airbus) either in the sim or the real aircraft. Even with gear vs flaps, those errors occur where controls are proximate, or with controls that both involve \x93retraction\x94 (ie a similar action), or which have a similar method of operation, or which look vaguely similar in outward appearance. None of these principles apply here. So please, be my guest and find it as concerning as you like. And with that, you have convinced me to bow out of this discussion. Cheers. |
JustusW
July 17, 2025, 12:23:00 GMT permalink Post: 11924362 |
To those who find it difficult to accept certain suicide scenarios, the objection often stems from the perceived irrationality. As others have explained, the answer is that rationality is not present - or not in a form that the rest of us would recognise. I once came up with a thought exercise that helped explain it in a way that might satisfy a rational mind.
I have not posted on here in many years, but I feel compelled to do so now. I am a current 787 pilot and I have previously flown most Boeing types and an Airbus too. I also have an extensive background and qualifications in human factors, training and assessment. Before anybody reads any further, perhaps acquaint yourself with the notion of Occam's razor. That is, the simplest explanation is the most likely explanation. I was certain that after the preliminary report was released the preposterous conspiracy theories would finally cease, but no! It's 2025 and humans can no longer help themselves. In my opinion the captain committed suicide here. Simple.
All known cases of pilot suicide have indicators that are not present here. In some cases (like the often mentioned Germanwings incident) those indicators were such strong evidence that the criminal case was open and shut in days or weeks. Those weren't "simple" cases either, but they had the evidence one would expect from a pilot suffering such a complex condition. Nothing of the sort is known about either the Captain or the FO. Suicide is almost always the last step in a long history of suffering from (mental) illness. Suicidal ideation is what the medical field calls thoughts (ideas about) suicide. It's a comparably common symptom shown in around 5-20% of adults worldwide with strong variation correlating with external factors, such as economic well being, occupation, stress, etc. Assessed globally Pilots, as far as relevant studies are available, seem to fall into the lower bracket of prevalence of suicidal ideation with a lower than expected prevalence when compared to the general population from their respective country of origin down to the rate observed in the general population of economically stable and strong countries. Cases where pilot suicide is suspected (any case where at least some level of evidence is present but either no or only an officially disputed final assessment exists) also generally follow the same patterns. Attempts at concealment are known to happen, but make up only 10%-30% of completed suicides in the general population. This does include the gray area of potentially successful concealment which would lead to the assumption of an accidental death. In almost all cases a recurring pattern is also the topic of certainty. In suicidal ideation it is a very common theme that any issues are projected into the future and the uncertainty of those issues generates anxiety. Many survivors of suicide attempts reveal that they considered the certainty of their own death to be preferable over the continuance of uncertainty and the associated anxiety. While we are far from being able to authoritatively call this a definitive mechanism in the psychological conditions related to suicide it is strongly implicated and subject of ongoing research. My personal way of explaining this to someone unfamiliar with depression is that your brain is quite literally poisoning you and generating so much trauma that the idea of ending it becomes preferable. Patients in this stage of major depression show a determination and rationality in their drive towards that goal that is often the primary source of perceived irrationality from the outside. They routinely ignore any and all information that is not relevant to their goal. The means are often chosen with preference of perceived certainty over any other motivation, including harm to others. Summarizing: 1. Suicide is overwhelmingly the last step in a history of mental illness and almost exclusively presents without that in cases of immediate, significant and obvious trauma. 2. Attempts of concealment are of low probability in a suicide. 3. Methods of suicide are commonly chosen based on perceived certainty of success. These indicators are all negative for the Air India accident. There is no indication of a prolonged history of mental illness, there is no immediate, significant or obvious trauma. Theorizing an attempt at suicide by either of the pilots requires the assumption of a major attempt at concealment. And most importantly: The method chosen is not following the pattern of maximizing certainty, the probable reason why all confirmed and even all suspected cases of pilot suicide happened in cruise flight. The theory of suicide is thus, in this particular case, a bad fit. If we are assuming an (intentionally) concealed medical condition there are much simpler and more likely candidates available. Any type of cardiac issue could lead to a clot and a stroke. A stroke fully explains what happened here. A clot triggered by the acceleration of the takeoff run could very reasonably present as a stroke in the timeframe given here. If the victim belatedly realizes what happened he may develop the wish to stop the situation, which in a stroking brain could absolutely lead to the shortcut of "turning off the engines is done at the end of flight". Or the stroke victim is trying to hold onto something and grabs the switches relatively close to the relaxed hand position after releasing the thrust levers at V1. Other conditions can rapidly present and impact judgement, motor function, or both. If we are willing to attribute the Captains recent decision to retire and be with his father as a potential change in character we might even fall into a number of neurological conditions that may be causal. But there are even simpler explanations than a concealed medical condition. Maybe one of the pilots had previously finished recurring training for evacuations on the runway and had discussed this with his colleague ahead of the flight. The final memory item for those is turning off the fuel pumps. This kind of Action Slip is well documented. It's not very likely, thus I have no issue believing no one reported observing that type of a slip in a simulator, but it's not like accidents with this level of weirdness are common. There is however a good indicator here fitting the situation of at least one of the pilots: The Captain may have been preoccupied with his wish to retire soon and spending time with his father. While the latter makes absolutely no sense in a suicide it could be part of the causality for an action slip. Also note this post about inadvertent activation of switches despite majorly different modes of activation. In the end here are three observations based on the preliminary report: 1. Any type of mechanical fault is unlikely and no immediately supporting evidence has been found. 2. A human factor is currently the most likely candidate for the cause of the accident. 3. The type of human factor is not being speculated upon in the preliminary report. Note that the report specifically states:
Complete analysis of postmortem reports of the crew and the passengers is being undertaken to corroborate aeromedical findings with the engineering appreciation.
Attribution of an unclear accident to suicide is contributing to a problematic pattern of stigmatization and increases the likeliness of concealment of (mental) health issues associated with that stigma. In addition it precludes proper analysis of a potential inadvertent mishandling of controls. Both Airbus and Boeing commonly utilize this position and type of guarded switch. Both are sufficiently protected against accidental movement but nothing else. In many smaller aircraft setting the Master Switch to Off would not lead to engine shutdown. There are even reports of what we could consider negative training, by flight instructors demonstrating this fact by turning the Master Switch off in flight. Other commercial aircraft utilize different schemes, Embraer was mentioned right at the beginning of this thread by moosepileit as requiring Throttle Levers at idle for Fuel Cutoff as well as positioning those switches on the overhead panel . Having just done a full review of this entire thread with regard to human factors I find it a bit sad to note that from the start there were multiple people with backgrounds in accident investigation present that pointed out human error and gave proper reasoning or even corroborating evidence in the form of accident reports. There are also multiple people repeatedly injecting their theory of pilot suicide either without providing any evidence or referring to baseless rumors from media reports. Notably those same people often rejected any other possibility of human error. They also repeatedly make statements of fact that are contradicted or not covered by the preliminary report. Any discussion of mental health seems pointless at this moment in time since there is no actual interest in the topic beyond occasionally going "It's suicide, duh". If anyone is interested in the topic I can once again only recommend taking a look at the Pilot Mental Health Campaign Research Page and other resources presented there. I think the other worthwhile takeaway from this thread has been stated rather early, with the very applicable nod to a better layout regarding critical functionality that has no reason to be present in close proximity to regularly used flight controls. |
Musician
July 17, 2025, 13:34:00 GMT permalink Post: 11924410 |
The issue of intent
Assumed: a pilot moved both fuel switches to CUTOFF, and that caused the accident.
Argument against intent: 1. The CVR, taken at face value, reveals that neither pilot was aware he had moved the switch himself 2. On a G650 simulator, CUTOFF after 10 seconds (then RUN after 10 more seconds) was barely recoverable. ( See upthread. ) This suggests the "unrecoverability" window on the 787 was quite short, making a suicide plan risky. 3. Similar accidents were survivable (someone said upthread). 4. Typically, pilot suicides start with the pilot alone in the cockpit at cruise altitude. 5. "Shut down both engines" is an action that often occurs after a flight, and could thus be learned as "muscle memory", and be subject to an action slip. 6. The airline stated that the captain's medical records were found "unremarkable". Argument for intent: 1. It's the simplest explanation. 2. "I can't believe any pilot would do this unintentionally, and neither should you." 3. Pilot took 10 seconds to correct his "mistake" 4. Uncorroborated reporting has it that the captain did not sound panicked on the CVR. Did I miss any points? To be clear, given the facts in the preliminary report, I could not decide this question today. Whatever happened in Ahmedabad is not affected by the outcome of our discussion. I hope that the AAIB and the public prosecutor will gather as much evidence as possible, and then the question can hopefully be resolved from facts. Last edited by Musician; 17th July 2025 at 14:02 . Reason: link added |