Posts by user "za9ra22" [Posts: 88 Total up-votes: 0 Pages: 5]

za9ra22
June 22, 2025, 18:25:00 GMT
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Post: 11908740
Two minor points regarding competence and who gets the task of data extraction from the data recorders: Firstly, that it's the AAIB (India) which will decide where and when to hand over the data recorders, and secondly, the supposed comment attributed to the Ministry of Civil Aviation in the press release dated June 19 ( https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleaseP...x?PRID=2137718 ), that "t he decision regarding the location for decoding the flight recorders will be taken by the AAIB after due assessment of all technical, safety, and security considerations " would likely have been phrased rather differently if the lab in India were not considered capable of the work involved.

On edit:
And mods, apologies, this is getting rather more tangential to the incident than I intended!

Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): AAIB (All)  AAIB (India)  DFDR  Thread Moderation

za9ra22
June 28, 2025, 21:40:00 GMT
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Post: 11912674
Originally Posted by Machinbird
This might be a useful starting point for understanding what could have gone wrong.
Sorted by topic, this is from the thread wiki, to outline what has already been discussed:
https://paulross.github.io/pprune-th...171/index.html

(I think Weight on Wheels covers posts which outline the ground/air mode discussions so far).

Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): Weight on Wheels

za9ra22
June 29, 2025, 16:47:00 GMT
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Post: 11913122
Originally Posted by AAKEE
A slightly less sensationalised version of the same conversation reported in The Sun (posted above), with Minister of State For Civil Aviation Murlidhar Mohol, though unsurprisingly it doesn't really tell us anything new.

The potential for sabotage is clearly a valid line of investigation in the absence - so far - of any clear evidence of more prosaic malfunction or errors, but I doubt it is anything more than one of dozens of lines of attention.

Subjects: None

za9ra22
June 29, 2025, 17:13:00 GMT
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Post: 11913135
Originally Posted by EDLB
I find it very disconcerting that with downloaded recorders the investigators seem to have no clue how and why the dual engine shut down happened.
I don't see any direct confirmation that the flight recorder(s) have been read and their data determined, just that the AAIB have them in their custody, and they aren't going anywhere else.

To be honest, I don't see any detail in this reported conversation that tells me the Minister has any actual knowledge of the state of play in the investigation itself, just the process and a general round-up of what we basically already know.

My guess is that the investigation has not provided any feedback yet - or at least none that the Minister is able to pass on.

Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): AAIB (All)  DFDR

za9ra22
June 29, 2025, 17:28:00 GMT
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Post: 11913142
Originally Posted by AAKEE
I did read several articles but NDTV sounded like the origin, that actually spoke to the minister?
I did not dig very deep into that though.
I think NDTV were indeed the origin of the conversation, and the report of it on their site posted by AAKEE is far more restrained and focussed than the other from The Sun which merely reports on it second-hand. But the conversation with him was obviously not only about the crash, since is also went into other civil aviation topics too.

What is interesting/informative (to me) is what he seems not to have said... which is anything you might normally hear from the investigation itself.

Subjects: None

za9ra22
June 29, 2025, 20:02:00 GMT
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Post: 11913197
Originally Posted by AirScotia
They seem to think that some of the EAFR data is now in the US. Is that actually the case?
Nobody here could answer that, but since the authorities in India have said the recorders themselves are there and not going anywhere, I would guess that if any data has been downloaded and shared outside the country, it will be for specific analysis purposes - GE for example.

There's no credible reasons 'three former accident investigators' in the US would have any direct knowledge, and if any third party in the US has been provided access to data, it will have been on the basis that it is not shared. Even that I would doubt, since involved parties are far more likely to already be in India as part of the investigation.

On edit, and mindful of the Mods comments around the closing of the thread previously: I don't speak with any direct knowledge of accident investigations in India, only the UK - and even then with only one experience of civil aviation accident work. But I have been involved (in human factors as investigator and lead) in several UK incidents of scale, and have some familiarity with how these processes are constituted and work... there at least.




Last edited by za9ra22; 29th June 2025 at 20:19 . Reason: Clarification

Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): EAFR  Human Factors  Thread Moderation

za9ra22
June 29, 2025, 20:50:00 GMT
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Post: 11913221
Originally Posted by AirScotia
One thing they said is that the accident site was 'cleaned up, short order', suggesting that this might make it difficult to check physical state against what the FDR has recorded, eg if the FDR says the flaps are down, but the physical evidence says the flaps are not down. They show video of a digger scooping up wreckage.

As I said, I've been out of the loop for a few days. Do we know if the wreckage is being reconstructed in a warehouse, or whatever? I appreciate there may not have been that much left to reassemble, but the was at least one wing, a tail section, and the wing box section that the chap managed to escape from.
There's two points here: Firstly, whether anyone outside the investigation has any credible data they are able to disclose, and secondly, whether anyone outside the investigation can report with any knowledge, what the plans are for furthering the investigation. The answer to both is no. This will also go to the question previously posed as to whether politicians are likely to have been briefed.

One has to wonder why people might suggest otherwise, but the (probable) reality is that the authorities in India are doing what they think is needed in a situation where they know more than we do. If, for example, they are clearing the accident site after two weeks, they may think they have retrieved all the information from it that they can, and nobody else can really say otherwise.

As to reconstructing the wreckage, who knows (as yet), though my experience of a fire on board a fully fueled aircraft that has crashed on takeoff is that there may not be much to reconstruct. Certain parts, such as wings and the tail section for example, if in coherent condition, could be recovered and removed - and I seriously doubt anyone other than on the scene at the time, would be able to know.

All in all, the supposition that this is being done 'in haste' is nonsense. It suggests there's an attempt at a cover up of some kind, which is rather silly in a situation where an airliner crashes in a very public place, thousands witness it, it's filmed and put on TV, there are investigators from local authorities, the US and UK all present - all with different and contentious interests, plus the glare of media and others is on them. But 3 guys in the US on YouTube have uncovered the truth... Yeah, I doubt it.

Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): FDR

za9ra22
June 30, 2025, 01:09:00 GMT
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Post: 11913311
Originally Posted by Sailvi767
I would disagree with this. Given the airspeed at 174 knots and a peak altitude of about 175 feet the aircraft had some energy for the pilots to work with. Stall speed was likely around 120 knots so they had 55 knots of airspeed and 175 feet of altitude to convert to distance.
OK, from my standpoint as a curious observer, what would their options be? They don't have engines to provide thrust, they don't have altitude to lower the nose and gain speed, and they don't have the speed to pull the nose up and extend the glide? All while trying to troubleshoot the same problem we've collectively taken 2 weeks to not understand. What would you do?

Subjects: None

za9ra22
June 30, 2025, 15:23:00 GMT
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Post: 11913693
Originally Posted by T28B
As neither mod nor admin
You left out this part: over a populated area that was somewhat built up.
That adds a degree of difficulty to the attempt, with a modest amount of energy and altitude with which to work.
(They hit a building on the way down; some of the casualties were people on the ground).
Yes, thanks. It reminds me of what a retired BAC test pilot once told me, that if you couldn't make it to where you were going, your instinct is to find where you can go that is the least hazardous.

I'll refrain from adding other thoughts since the thread has moved on since.

Subjects: None

za9ra22
June 30, 2025, 16:02:00 GMT
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Post: 11913727
Originally Posted by adfad
It's hard to find a full and reliable translation of his statement ....
Posted yesterday, this is from NDTV who conducted the interview/conversation with the Minister himself.
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/sabo...-mohol-8788920 Their own english language version seems most likely to be accurate to the actual conversation.

This was discussed previously, and it seems highly improbable that the Minister had anything much in the way of a briefing or insider knowledge of the state of the investigation or its findings.

Last edited by za9ra22; 30th June 2025 at 16:24 .

Subjects: None

za9ra22
June 30, 2025, 22:04:00 GMT
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Post: 11913913
Originally Posted by GroundedSpanner
....The theory I'm working is...
that, given the configuration of the aircraft
What configuration, specifically?
if there is a significant electrical failure (sufficient for the RAT to auto-deploy)
Caused by what?
The aircraft fuel pumps are lost
Didn't I read somewhere in the wiki, that the engines will continue to suck fuel?
the fuel being received by the engines is arriving from a different source
Which is?
a potentially contaminated source
Contaminated with what, and how? And why were no other aircraft affected?
I believe that the engine failure is a secondary result of the power loss (with specific circumstances)
Which specific circumstances?

It isn't that your suppositions are necessarily bad ones, but that they seem a bit of a stretch. Of course I'm no expert, hence asking.

Last edited by za9ra22; 30th June 2025 at 22:19 .

Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): Electrical Failure  Engine Failure (All)  Fuel (All)  RAT (All)

za9ra22
July 09, 2025, 14:17:00 GMT
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Post: 11918422
Originally Posted by The Brigadier
Unfortunately, it's looking like poster's concerns about political interference, national pride in using a brand new lab in India to extract 'black box' content and the desire not to damage the reputation of a 'flag carrier' are well founded.
Nonsense.

There isn't anything of a factual nature to tell us that the investigation is suffering 'political interference', or that there is any issue in the use of the new lab to extract data from the flight recorders. There's unsubstantiated and improbable speculation in the guise of reporting that the data recorders might get sent elsewhere, but no credible sign this was ever planned.

Plus... 'flag carrier'? Air India is a wholly owned subsidiary of Tata, not an organ of state. And prior to it's purchase by them, the Indian government didn't seem overly concerned about the airline or its future. Hard to see why they would now.

The only thing well founded will be found in the accident report.

Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): DFDR

za9ra22
July 09, 2025, 15:22:00 GMT
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Post: 11918460
Originally Posted by Magplug
Given the iron-grip that the government appears to have over the media, one wonders how the truth will ever surface?
With all due respect, do you have any idea how a large scale investigation of this kind actually works, because it would appear not so much.

Not only are there agencies and personnel from outside governmental influence directly involved in the investigation, and playing an active as well as observational role, which makes it almost impossible to hide or obscure critical pieces of information or data, but other than a frenzy of any-nonsense-goes in the name of hits, clicks and ad revenue, the media play no role whatsoever in any part of the investigation.

The team itself will operate largely within a bubble, and team members don't talk to media or politicians - however much the media or politicians still need to flap their jaws because to both classes, silence is anathema. Furthermore, everyone who does this kind of work is a professional, well aware that any unofficial commentary is capable of severely compromising the investigation and other members of the team. Just as pilots who fly these aircraft are professionals with a hard job deserving of respect, so are those who investigate when things go wrong.

Subjects: None

za9ra22
July 09, 2025, 15:28:00 GMT
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Post: 11918463
Originally Posted by Gino230
Paraphrasing from the article above-
They originally refused to allow UN and ICAO observers as part of the investigation, but have now reversed course.
They gave one press conference in the last 30 days and no questions were taken.
They took almost 2 weeks to read out the boxes.
UN stated that it is up to the Country leading the investigation on wether to release the report at all- a frightening thought.

They are not being transparent, for whatever reason. I don't really care as I'm more concerned with the technical details of what went wrong or who did what that led to the accident.
My point is that there is a great deal of paraphrasing, and zero in the way of original statements provided by the investigating team. Their job is not to be transparent, but to find the cause of the accident. Nothing I have seen suggests they are not doing exactly that, but the report when released will go some way to tell us.

As to all the other assertions made, they may, or may not, be true or accurate, but are not authoritative.

Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): ICAO

za9ra22
July 09, 2025, 16:12:00 GMT
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Post: 11918484
Originally Posted by WillowRun 6-3
When I saw the article in The Air Current, on one hand I hoped for the sake of the reputation of the publisher that the unnamed sources were legitimately informed, but at the same time, would not anyone legitimately informed have been subject to rather strict confidentiality and nondisclosure obligations?
I can't speak to the practices of the AAIB in India, but as a person involved in large scale investigations (albeit only one airline accident) in the UK, I can say that I am still bound by NDAs even now, many years on. These aren't in place to protect involved parties, as shown by the fact that resulting accident reports can and do lay blame and responsibility where it is found to be due, but to ensure the investigative process itself is protected from external pressures which would otherwise almost inevitably undermine it.

I can say that even in the days when the media were not so desperate for self promotion, it was often quite alarming to witness the absolute nonsense it was capable of inventing and perpetrating as fact, often implying insider knowledge or inside sources, when their reports were so far off the mark they might as well have been commenting on a Star Trek plot line.

To add also that there never was a shortage of external pressures, but that does not mean that in any sense these pressures actually worked. I still regard the people I worked with over the years as amongst the most professional and dedicated I have ever met.

Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): AAIB (All)  AAIB (India)

za9ra22
July 09, 2025, 16:26:00 GMT
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Post: 11918498
Originally Posted by Magplug
There speaks an idealist who has never worked outside the western world! I speak only from the perspective of an aviator of 40-odd years experience during which time we have seen too many accident enquiries, but I admire your optimism. There is an enormous amount at stake here, national pride as well as huge corporate cost will ensue if this crash is demonstrated to be the result of a crime. The enquiry into the crash of Germanwings Flight 9525 was put into the hands of the judiciary within hours of the primary cause becoming evident. I wonder if that will happen here?
Thanks! That induced a laugh!

Not only have I not been called an idealist at any point within the last 50 years or so, but you wiped out about 20 years of work outside the western world, all within one sentence.

I don't have anything to add in response that I haven't already posted, but I do appreciate your response!

Subjects: None

za9ra22
July 11, 2025, 21:44:00 GMT
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Post: 11919848
Originally Posted by DIBO
referring to a few questions asked in both preceding threads, one word not to be found in this prelim is ___ jumpseat(er)
(so status remains unclear)
I think most likely not mentioned because it would be a material factor if there had been one. The lack of mention suggests quite strongly that there wasn't.

Subjects: None

za9ra22
July 11, 2025, 22:00:00 GMT
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Post: 11919868
Originally Posted by The Brigadier
Agreed, it's most unfortunate that that the preliminary report hasn\x92t closed off speculation, it's simply created opportunity for more.

It confirms that both fuel cutoff switches were moved to OFF at Vr, within a one second interval which is as extreme and inexplicable as it gets. Then it gives us a CVR quote that\x92s so neutered, "Why did you cut off?\x94 / \x93I didn\x92t\x94, that it raises more questions than it answers. If the goal was to reassure or clarify, it\x92s had the opposite effect.
Neither pilot was likely speaking in order to be recorded for posterity, so that 'conversation' makes perfect sense in a situation where there is high stress and a great deal of confusion.

As to the report not closing off speculation, that isn't it's purpose. It is there to report the facts as they are found. It must also be said that speculation is not in any place but the eye of the beholder.

Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): CVR  Fuel (All)  Fuel Cutoff  Fuel Cutoff Switches  Preliminary Report

za9ra22
July 11, 2025, 22:17:00 GMT
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Post: 11919896
Originally Posted by Steepclimb
There are two options. The fuel cut off was accidental or it was deliberate. The question from one of the pilots is why did you do that? The other pilot denied it.

...

The 'why did you do that' question is significant. It wasn't 'What happened?' or 'How did that happen'​​​​
That isn't the human factors question. All it does is tell us that one of the flight deck crew was unaware of the issue as it was initiated. It doesn't tell us which, and it doesn't tell us why.

Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): Fuel (All)  Fuel Cutoff  Fuel Cutoff Switches  Human Factors

za9ra22
July 11, 2025, 22:44:00 GMT
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Post: 11919941
Originally Posted by The Brigadier
The phrasing \x93Why did you cut off?\x94 doesn\x92t suggest surprise at an EICAS message, it implies direct observation or perception of manual action. This quote from the preliminary report reads exactly like what it appears to be; one pilot reacting to a control input he didn\x92t expect for which there was no plausible explanation .
All the supposed quote does, is tell you that the person asking the question didn't perform the action, thus presumed the other had.

There are many plausible explanations, not just the one or two you might choose to see in this scenario.

Subjects (links are to this post in the relevant subject page so that this post can be seen in context): EICAS  Preliminary Report